基于土地利用的中国农业人口格网分布特征分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.460

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 高精度农业人口空间分布研究是构建现代农业产业体系的基础性工作，对培育农业新质生产力具有重要决策价值。基于第七次中国人口普查分县数据与中国土地利用遥感监测数据集（分辨率1 km），探索了农业人口格网化方法，实现了1 km格网尺度的中国农业人口密度可视化表达，验证指标显示数据结果具有良好的精度。结果表明：（1）中国农业人口沿胡焕庸线具有显著分异特征，东南半壁农业人口格网密度均值（30.57人·km^-2）是西北半壁（1.92人·km^-2）的15.9倍。（2）农业人口分布沿地势三级阶梯下降而梯度递增，密度分别为0.98人·km^-2、11.27 人·km^-2和30.76人·km^-2。（3）各个农业区的地形与气候对农业人口分布影响较大，温暖湿润的低海拔农业区农业人口密集，高寒干旱的高原丘陵农业区农业人口相对稀疏。研究建议实施差异化的数字农业推进策略，重点加强黄淮平原区等农业人口密集地区的农业数字化转型，促进生态脆弱区的特色农旅融合，加快培育新型职业农民。

关键词: 农业人口, 土地利用类型, 格网化方法, 胡焕庸线, 地势三级阶梯, 精度验证

Abstract:

This study addresses the critical need for precise agricultural population distribution data to inform modern agricultural system development and policy formulation. We integrated country-level demographic data from the Seventh National Population Census with the China Land Use Remote Sensing Monitoring Dataset to develop a novel grid-based spatial distribution model. This methodological approach enabled the first comprehensive visualization of China’s agricultural population density at a 1 km resolution, with validation metrics confirming the high statistical reliability of the results. Our spatial analysis revealed three significant geographic patterns: (1) The Hu Huanyong Line (Hu Line) presents a profound demographic divide, with southeastern regions exhibiting an average agricultural population density (30.57 persons·km^-2) nearly 15.9 times higher than northwestern regions (1.92 persons·km^-2). (2) Agricultural population distribution follows China’s three-tiered topographical gradient, with densities increasing significantly from the western plateau (0.98 persons·km^-2) through the central highlands (11.27 persons·km^-2) to the eastern plains (30.76 persons·km^-2). (3) Environmental determinants strongly influence agricultural settlement patterns, creating a clear dichotomy between densely populated warm, humid, low-altitude agricultural zones, and sparsely distributed cold-arid plateau and hilly agricultural regions. These findings provide an empirical basis for targeted agriculture development strategies: Prioritizing digital agriculture technologies in high-density regions like the Huang-Huai Plain; developing integrated agritourism models in ecologically sensitive areas; and implementing specialized training programs to cultivate a professional agricultural workforce adapted to regional conditions.

Key words: agricultural population, land use type, population gridding method, Hu Huanyong Line, three tiered terrain ladder, accuracy verification

米瑞华, 倪世龙, 刘书敏. 基于土地利用的中国农业人口格网分布特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(6): 1006-1019.

MI Ruihua, NI Shilong, LIU Shumin. Analysis of grid distribution characteristics of agricultural population in China based on land use data[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(6): 1006-1019.

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土地利用类型	地类代码	编号（j）	权重（f_j）
土地利用类型	地类代码	编号（j）	方案1	方案2	方案3
水田	11	1	20.00	12.00	10.00
旱地	12	2	7.00	5.00	4.00
林地	20	3	3.00	2.20	2.00
草地	30	4	3.00	3.50	1.90
水域	40	5	0.45	0.80	0.09
城镇用地	51	6	3.00	3.00	5.00
农村居民点	52	7	3.50	3.00	5.00
其他建设用地	53	8	60.00	70.00	72.00
未利用土地	60	9	0.05	0.50	0.01

胡焕庸线两侧	国土面积占比/%	水田占比/%	旱地占比/%	农业人口
胡焕庸线两侧	国土面积占比/%	水田占比/%	旱地占比/%	占比/%	密度/人·km^-2	人均耕地面积/hm²
东南半壁	42.65	98.14	77.86	92.22	30.57	1.18
西北半壁	57.35	1.86	22.14	7.78	1.92	2.86
合计	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	-	-

地势三级阶梯	国土面积占比/%	水田占比/%	旱地占比/%	农业人口
地势三级阶梯	国土面积占比/%	水田占比/%	旱地占比/%	占比/%	密度/人·km^-2	人均耕地面积/hm²
第一级阶梯	27.71	0.20	2.35	1.92	0.98	1.23
第二级阶梯	43.13	22.55	42.59	34.47	11.27	1.43
第三级阶梯	29.16	77.25	55.06	63.61	30.76	1.25
合计	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	-	-

区划编号	现代农业区划	国土面积占比/%	水田占比/%	旱地占比/%	农业人口
区划编号	现代农业区划	国土面积占比/%	水田占比/%	旱地占比/%	占比/%	密度/人·km^-2	人均耕地面积/hm²
Ⅳ	黄淮平原区	2.97	7.47	11.98	13.97	66.52	1.02
Ⅲ	京津冀鲁平原丘陵区	3.41	0.54	12.70	12.87	53.39	0.98
Ⅹ	四川盆地区	3.63	12.50	7.69	9.19	35.85	1.27
Ⅻ	华南热作区	3.55	6.80	3.78	7.99	31.94	0.75
Ⅴ	长江中下游平原区	4.38	29.13	3.27	9.88	31.89	1.30
Ⅵ	东南沿海丘陵区	1.68	5.30	0.73	3.30	28.21	0.75
Ⅺ	云贵高原区	5.87	7.87	6.58	10.54	25.37	0.86
Ⅱ	东北平原区	5.01	7.11	15.34	8.73	24.66	1.99
Ⅶ	江南丘陵区	5.22	17.07	2.56	8.55	23.14	0.95
Ⅸ	黄土高原区	4.88	0.50	12.37	7.19	20.84	1.71
Ⅰ	东北山地丘陵区	6.58	4.49	6.62	1.68	3.61	4.77
Ⅷ	内蒙古高原区	6.72	0.76	6.45	1.67	3.53	3.92
ⅩⅢ	甘新沙漠高原区	22.03	0.03	7.72	2.47	1.58	3.08
ⅩⅣ	青藏高原区	24.07	0.43	2.21	1.97	1.16	1.17
	合计	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	-	-

权重方案	RMSE	MAE	MAPE/%	r
方案1	55.65	33.71	2.45	0.999
方案2	58.43	35.64	2.69	0.999
方案3	58.30	35.37	2.77	0.999