三江源地区草原森林基于空间网格的雷电危险性评估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.198

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以三江源地区2021—2022年闪电定位资料以及1984—2022年雷电灾害数据，计算出地闪密度、地闪强度和雷电灾害密度，采用层次分析法以及ArcGIS空间网格法分析技术对三江源地区雷电灾害的危险性进行评估，并结合三江源地区草原森林分布，分别计算出草原和森林雷电危险性分布。结果表明：（1）三江源地区雷电灾害6月伤亡最严重，多集中在12:00—20:00之间，16:00受灾人最多，17:00雷击死亡人最多，玉树州囊谦县、杂多县、玉树市，果洛州甘德县伤亡占比高。（2）三江源地闪密度高值集中在果洛州和玉树州南部地区；地闪强度高值集中在果洛州东部、南部和玉树州南部地区；雷电灾害密度高值集中在果洛中东部和玉树中南部地区；雷电灾害危险性高值区分布在玉树州囊谦县着晓乡、毛庄乡、东坝乡、娘拉乡、吉尼赛乡和玉树市下拉秀镇，果洛州班玛县、久治县、哇尔依乡和玛沁拉加镇。（3）草原雷电危险性高值区主要集中在玉树州西部和南部、果洛州南部和中东部。森林危险性高值区集中在玉树州东南部、果洛州南部和东北部。（4）三江源地区玉树州、果洛州草原森林雷电灾害与海拔高度呈负相关，与地形起伏度和地形坡度呈正相关。通过对三江源地区玉树州和果洛州草原森林雷电灾害危险性分析评估，为雷电灾害预防提供有利依据。

关键词: 三江源地区, 玉树州和果洛州, 草原森林, 雷电, 危险性

Abstract:

Lightning disasters in “Three River Source” region, Qinghai Province, China resulted in the most severe casualties in June, primarily between 12:00 and 20:00. The highest number of casualties occurred around 16:00, with the most fatalities due to lightning strikes around 17:00. The areas of Nangqen County, Zadoi County, Yushu City in the Yushu Prefecture, and gade in the Golog Prefecture experienced a higher proportion of casualties. The highest flash densities in “Three River Source” region were concentrated in the southern parts of Yushu Prefecture and Golog Prefecture, while the highest ground flash intensities were observed in the eastern and southern parts of Golog Prefecture and the southern part of Yushu Prefecture. Lightning disasters were most densely concentrated in the central and eastern areas of Golog Prefecture and the central and southern parts of Yushu Prefecture. The high-risk areas for lightning disasters were distributed across Zhaoxiao Township, Maozhuang Township, Dongba Township, Niangla Township, Jinisai Township in Nangqen County, and Xialaxiu Town in Yushu City, Yushu Prefecture, as well as Baima County, Jigzhi County, Wa’erji Township, and Laga Town in Maqen County, Golog Prefecture. The high-risk areas for grassland lightning hazards were mainly located in the western and southern parts of Yushu Prefecture, and the southern and central eastern parts of Golog Prefecture. Forest lightning risks were concentrated in the southeastern part of Yushu Prefecture and the southern and northeastern parts of Golog Prefecture. The analysis showed a negative correlation between lightning disasters and altitude, while terrain undulation and slope were positively correlated with these events. By assessing the risk of lightning disasters in the grasslands and forests of Yushu Prefecture and Golog Prefecture within the “Three River Source” region, a solid foundation is established for effective lightning disaster prevention.

Key words: “Three River Source” region, Yushu Prefecture and Golog Prefecture, grassland and forest, thunder and lightning, hazard

谢捷, 代青措, 马玉芳, 孙芙荣, 李梓瑄, 李乾英. 三江源地区草原森林基于空间网格的雷电危险性评估[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(10): 1713-1723.

XIE Jie, DAI Qingcuo, MA Yufang, SUN Furong, LI Zixuan, LI Qianying. Assessment of lightning hazard in grasslands and forests in “Three River Source” region based on spatial grids[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(10): 1713-1723.

图/表 11

图1

图2

表1

表2

层次分析法确定主观权重步骤"

步骤	具体内容
建立递阶层次结构	构造雷电灾害危险性目标层级，具体如图1所示，利用闪电数据、雷电灾害数据和森林草原数据，构建影响因子指标，从而确定雷电灾害危险性评价指标体系。
比较构造判别矩阵（A）	采用1~9标度方法，对各层指标的两两元素进行相对重要性程度进行量化，构造两者比较判断矩阵A。
权重计算（W）	比较判断矩阵A的特征根问题 $A W = λ m a x W$ 的解，经过归一化后为统一层次相应因子的重要性权重值。
一致性检验	一致性指标 $C I = λ m a x - n n - 1$ ，当平均随机性RI指标比率 $C R = C I R I$ 小于0.1时，则判断矩阵A的一致性为合理；若CR≥0.1时，则说明判断矩阵A不合理，需要重新进行检验。

表2

表3

图3

图4

图5

表4

图6

表5

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空间相关性	灾害密度	地闪密度	地闪强度	权重
灾害密度	1.000	0.144	0.281	0.114
地闪密度	0.144	1.000	0.497	0.405
地闪强度	0.281	0.497	1.000	0.481

雷电灾害	等级划分	分位分级法
危险性指数	低	[0.12, 0.15）
	较低	[0.15, 0.19）
	中等	[0.19, 0.22）
	较高	[0.22, 0.26）
	高	[0.26, 0.66]

相关性	灾害密度	地闪密度	地闪强度	雷电危险性	草原雷电危险性	森林雷电危险性
海拔高度	-0.164	-0.594^**	-0.481^**	-0.618^**	-0.623^**	-0.080
地形起伏度	0.268^*	0.382^**	0.345^**	0.468^**	0.487^**	0.109
地形坡度	0.306^**	0.308^**	0.281^**	0.413^**	0.429^**	0.150