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干旱区地理 ›› 2020, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (1): 20-26.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.01.03

• 地表过程研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

灰色理论在舟曲南屿沟泥石流灾害危险性评价中的应用研究

郭光玲1,郭1顾箭峰2,李1,郭鸿1陈能远3   

  1. 1陕西理工大学土木工程与建筑学院,陕西汉中7230012武汉工程大学土木工程与建筑学院,湖北武汉4300733信息产业部电子综合勘察研究院, 陕西西安710054
  • 收稿日期:2018-05-11 修回日期:2019-10-29 出版日期:2020-01-05 发布日期:2020-01-05
  • 通讯作者: 顾箭峰(1986-),男,湖北咸宁人,博士,主要从事公路桥梁专业教学与科研工作. E-mail:gujianfeng.12345@163.com
  • 作者简介:郭光玲(1973-),女,陕西城固人,副教授,硕士生导师,主要从事建筑结构抗震加固研究. E-mail:ggl750320@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    陕西省2018年重点研发计划项目(2018ZDXMSF024);陕西省教育厅2019年度专项科学研究计划(19JK0185

灰色理论在舟曲南屿沟泥石流灾害危险性评价中的应用研究

GUO Guang-ling1,GUO Rui1,GU Jian-feng2,LI Jun1,GUO Hong1,CHEN Neng-yuan3   

  1. 1 School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Shaanxi University of Technology,Hanzhong 723001,Shaanxi,China; 2 School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Wuhan Institute of Technology,Wuhan 430073,Hubei,China; 3 China Electronic Research Institute of Engineering Investigations and Design,Xi an 710054,Shaanxi,China
  • Received:2018-05-11 Revised:2019-10-29 Online:2020-01-05 Published:2020-01-05

摘要: 为分析不同因素对泥石流灾害危险性的影响程度,基于对舟曲南屿沟泥石流灾害影响因素调查结果总结和分析,利用灰色理论分析了泥石流灾害危险性与影响因素间关联程度,并建立了其预判模型。结果表明:沟岸坡度、沟道堵塞程度及冲淤变幅,沟道平均纵坡降和长度,沟道内植被覆盖率、流域面积及人口密度,松散固体物源量和灾害点密度等因素的影响程度较接近;相同区域内不同沟道泥石流灾害危险性程度受沟岸坡度、沟道堵塞程度、冲淤变幅、沟道平均纵坡降及长度等因素影响显著;基于自然和人为因素建立了泥石流灾害易发程度预估模型,其能够为区域内泥流灾害防治工作部署提供依据。

关键词: 地质工程, 泥石流灾害, 灰色理论, 危险性评价

Abstract: This paper focused on analyzing the vulnerability degree on debris flow hazards, which is affected by various environmental factors. The correlation degree between different influencing factors and debris flow disaster susceptibility were studied using grey correlation analysis based on the analysis and summary of the field survey results on influencing factors for debris flow hazards in different debris flow gullies of Nanyu in Zhouqu County, Gansu Province, China which included the August 8 large debris flow disaster instance. The results show that the susceptibility of debris flow disaster is relatively similar for the factors such as bank slope, channel blockage, and scouring range, the slope gradient and length of channel, vegetation, drainage area, and population density, solid matter source and geological hazards points density. For the different gullies in the same area, the hazard level of the debris flow disaster is impacted significantly by the bank slope, the channel blockage, the scouring range, the slope gradient, and the channel length. The model can predict the vulnerability of debris flow and provide important information in the hazard prevention and control.

Key words: geological engineering, mud-rock flow hazards, grey correlation theory, susceptibility assessment