基于地温的宁夏初霜冻日期气候演变及环流异常成因

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.254

干旱区地理 ›› 2022, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (2): 359-369.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.254

基于地温的宁夏初霜冻日期气候演变及环流异常成因

黄莹^1,²(),杨建玲^1,³(),李欣^1,²,崔洋^1,²,马阳^1,²,张雯^1,²

1.中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室/宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,宁夏银川 750002
2.宁夏气候中心,宁夏银川 750002
3.宁夏气象科学研究所,宁夏银川 750002

收稿日期:2021-06-03 修回日期:2021-06-17 出版日期:2022-03-25 发布日期:2022-04-02
通讯作者: 杨建玲
作者简介:黄莹（1992-）,女,助理工程师,主要从事气候变化和气候预测等方面的研究. E-mail: huangying7017@126.com
基金资助:
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J024);中国气象局创新发展专项资助(CXFZ2021Z011)

Climate change characteristics and circulation anomaly causes of the first frost date in Ningxia based on ground temperature

HUANG Ying^1,²(),YANG Jianling^1,³(),LI Xin^1,²,CUI Yang^1,²,MA Yang^1,²,ZHANG Wen^1,²

1. Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, CMA, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Preventing and Reducing of Ningxia, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China
2. Ningxia Climate Center, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China
3. Ningxia Meteorology Research Institute, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China

Received:2021-06-03 Revised:2021-06-17 Online:2022-03-25 Published:2022-04-02
Contact: Jianling YANG

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961年以来宁夏20个气象站地面温度、美国国家环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）逐月位势高度场资料、研究宁夏初霜冻日期最新的气候演变特征及其环流异常的影响,为宁夏开展霜冻灾害预测工作提供理论支撑。结果表明：（1）宁夏初霜冻日期呈现“南早北晚”空间分布特征,黄土丘陵区最早,中部干旱带次之,最晚出现在引黄灌区,这与日平均最低气温“南低北高”分布型相一致。（2）全球明显变暖前后宁夏初霜冻日期呈现出显著差异,相较于气候平均值（1981—2010年）,变暖前（1961—1980年）初霜日期普遍偏早,平均出现在9月下旬,各地平均偏早7 d;变暖后（1981—2019年）则明显偏晚,平均出现在10月上旬,各地平均偏晚2 d,2000年以后更是平均偏晚5 d。（3）宁夏初霜冻日期自1961年以来明显推迟,趋势为3.0 d·(10a)^-1,其中引黄灌区最为显著,可达到3.2 d·(10a)^-1,中部干旱带与黄土丘陵区次之,分别为2.6 d·(10a)^-1、2.7 d·(10a)^-1;但在气候变暖背景下仍会发生初霜冻异常偏早的情况,引黄灌区、中部干旱带和黄土丘陵区新世纪以来偏早的概率分别为15%、25%和30%。（4）宁夏初霜冻偏早年与偏晚年的高、中、低层大气环流存在显著的年代际和年际差异,其空间分布明显相反,当初霜冻日期偏早（偏晚）时,东亚大槽较常年偏强（偏弱）、西太平洋副热带高压偏弱（偏强）,有利于（不利于）冷空气活跃南下。

关键词: 初霜冻日期, 气候演变特征, 线性趋势, 大气环流

Abstract:

Based on the ground temperature from 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia Province, China since 1961 and the monthly geopotential height field data of NCEP/NCAR, the latest climatic evolution characteristics of the first frost date in Ningxia and the influence of circulation anomalies have been studied. The results are as follows. (1) The first frost date in Ningxia present the spatial distribution characteristics of “southern early and north late”. The loess hilly area is the earliest, followed by middle arid region, and the latest occurrence in irrigation region. This is consistent with the “low south and high north” distribution pattern in the daily average minimum temperature. Tongxin in the middle arid region and Shizuishan, Helan, and Wuzhong in the irrigation region are the latest in the entire region, and Longde in loess hilly area is the earliest. (2) The date of the first frost in Ningxia is significantly different before and after global warming. Compared with the climatic average (1981—2010), the first frost date before warming (1961—1980) is earlier, appearing on average in late September and seven days earlier on average everywhere. After warming (1981—2019) is late, on average in early October, on average two days later, and five days later, on average after 2000. (3) Since 1961, the first frost in Ningxia first occurred in early and mid-September in the 1960s and 1970s. The latest occurred in early November and late October after 2000. The linear trend of the first frost date is 3.0 d·(10a)^-1, of which irrigation area with 3.2 d·(10a)^-1 is the most prominent, and middle arid region; the southern mountain area are the second place, with 2.6 d·(10a)^-1 and 2.7 d·(10a)^-1. However, under the background of climatic warming, the first frost has been abnormally early in recent years. The early probability of three partitions since 2000 is 15%, 25%, and 30%. (4) There are significant interdecadal and inter-annual differences in the high, middle, and low atmospheric circulations between the early and late years of the first frost in Ningxia, and spatial distribution of the early years is opposite to that in the late years. When the first frost date was earlier (late), the East Asian trough was stronger (weaker) than usual; the Siberian high was stronger (weaker); the western Pacific subtropical high was weaker (stronger), and cold air was active (inactive).

Key words: data of first frost, climate change, linear trend, atmospheric circulation anomaly

黄莹,杨建玲,李欣,崔洋,马阳,张雯. 基于地温的宁夏初霜冻日期气候演变及环流异常成因[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(2): 359-369.

HUANG Ying,YANG Jianling,LI Xin,CUI Yang,MA Yang,ZHANG Wen. Climate change characteristics and circulation anomaly causes of the first frost date in Ningxia based on ground temperature[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(2): 359-369.

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基于地温的宁夏初霜冻日期气候演变及环流异常成因

Climate change characteristics and circulation anomaly causes of the first frost date in Ningxia based on ground temperature

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