京藏高速青海东部地区汛期路面水膜厚度变化特征及预报模型构建

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.088

干旱区地理 ›› 2022, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (6): 1814-1823.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.088

京藏高速青海东部地区汛期路面水膜厚度变化特征及预报模型构建

代青措^1,²(),保广裕²(),祁栋林³,李永花²,刘佳茹²,张静²,李宝华²

1.青海省防灾减灾重点实验室，青海西宁 810001
2.青海省气象服务中心，青海西宁 810001
3.青海省气象科学研究所，青海西宁 810001

收稿日期:2022-03-08 修回日期:2022-06-06 出版日期:2022-11-25 发布日期:2023-02-01
通讯作者: 保广裕（1967-），男，正研级高工，主要从事专业气象预报和服务研究. E-mail: 985022892@qq.com
作者简介:代青措（1982-），女，高级工程师，主要从事专业气象预报和服务研究. E-mail: 147463703@qq.com
基金资助:
青海省创新平台建设专项(2022-ZJ-Y11);青海省基础研究计划项目(2021-ZJ-762);青海省防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金项目(QFZ-2021-M03)

Variation characteristics of pavement water film thickness in flood season and construction of forecast model for Beijing-Tibet Expressway in the eastern part of Qinghai

DAI Qingcuo^1,²(),BAO Guangyu²(),QI Donglin³,LI Yonghua²,LIU Jiaru²,ZHANG Jing²,LI Baohua²

1. Qinghai Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
2. Qinghai Meteorological Service Center, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
3. Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China

Received:2022-03-08 Revised:2022-06-06 Online:2022-11-25 Published:2023-02-01
Contact: Guangyu BAO

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用2018—2020年汛期（5—9月）京藏高速青海省公路沿线交通自动监测站逐小时气象观测资料，研究路面水膜厚度变化特征，构建水膜厚度与气象因子的预报模型。结果表明：（1）京藏高速公路高庙桥站和汉庄村站逐小时路面水膜厚度主要分布均在0.0~0.2 mm之间，频率分别为66.0%和63.0%，大于0.5 mm以上的路面水膜厚度频率均较小（10.0%），2站均属于强变异性地区。（2）采用相对阈值法统计分析，发现2站路面水膜厚度在0.1 mm以内的比例分别为33.8%和36.3%，路面水膜厚度在0.1~0.6 mm之间的比例分别为59.2%和56.0%，路面水膜厚度大于0.7 mm以上即易发生水滑，引起车辆失稳、失控等危险的比例分别为7.0%和7.6%。（3）路面水膜厚度日变化和月变化特征明显。高庙桥站和汉庄村站水膜厚度的月变化均呈弱双峰性，2站的月变化趋势不完全一致。高庙桥站的日变化峰值出现在02:00—06:00，低谷出现在14:00—16:00，汉庄村站日变化峰值出现在06:00，低谷出现在16:00。（4）随着降水强度的增加，平均水膜厚度均遵循幂函数关系迅速增加；在降水强度0.00~1.75 mm·h^-1之间时，平均水膜厚度增加趋势明显，降水强度大于1.76 mm·h^-1平均水膜厚度变化有增有减。（5）采用多元回归统计方法建立依据气象因子和不同降水强度下分别构建的水膜厚度模型具有较好的使用价值，可在实际业务工作中推广应用。（6）不同降水强度下构建的水膜厚度模型计算值明显高于季天剑模型和罗京模型，本文模型与罗京模型变化趋势较为一致，水膜厚度随降雨强度增加增长趋势明显，季天剑模型水膜厚度计算值随降雨强度增加增长趋势缓慢。研究成果可应用于高原环境雨天车速管理和路面交通安全管理，能够为公路设计人员或运营管理人员提供辅助决策的依据。

关键词: 水膜厚度, 降水量, 预报模型, 京藏高速

Abstract:

The research uses the hourly measured data from the traffic automatic monitoring station along the Qinghai Provincial Highway of the Beijing-Tibet Expressway during the flood season (May-September) of 2018—2020, study the change feature of the variety of the pavement water film thickness, and finally build the forecast model between the water film thickness and meteorological factors. The results showed that: (1) The hourly pavement water film thickness at Gaomiaoqiao station and Hanzhuangcun station of Beijing-Tibet Expressway was mainly distributed between 0.0 mm and 0.2 mm, and the frequencies were 66.0% and 63.0%, respectively. There would be a small frequency (10.0%) when the pavement water film thickness over 0.5 mm, and both stations belong to strong variability areas. (2) The relative threshold method was used for statistical analysis, and it was found that the proportions of the pavement water film thickness within 0.1 mm at the two stations were 33.8% and 36.3%, respectively. The proportions of the pavement water film thickness between 0.1 mm and 0.6 mm were 59.2% and 56.0%, respectively. When the pavement water film thickness was over 0.7 mm, it is easy to slip, 7.0% and 7.6% of the vehicles were unstable and out of control respectively. (3) The daily and monthly variation characteristics of pavement water film thickness were obvious. The monthly variation of water film thickness at Gaomiaoqiao station and Hanzhuangcun station both showed a weak bimodal character, and the monthly variation trend of the two stations was not completely consistent. The peak of daily variation appeared at 02:00—06:00, and the low point appeared at 14:00—16:00, the peak appeared at 06:00 and the low point appeared at 16:00 at Hanzhuang Village station. (4) With the increase of precipitation intensity, the average water film thickness increased rapidly following the power function; when the precipitation intensity was between 0.00 mm·h^-1 and 1.75 mm·h^-1, the precipitation intensity was greater than 1.76 mm·h^-1, and the average water film thickness increased and decreased. (5) The model of water film thickness based on meteorological factors and different precipitation intensities was established by using multiple regression statistical method, which has good operational value and can be popularized in practical work. (6) The calculated values of the water film thickness model under different precipitation intensities are significantly higher than those of the Ji Tianjian model and the Luo Jing model. The variation trend of the model presented in this article is more consistent with the Luo Jing model, the water film thickness increases obviously with the increase of rainfall intensity, and the calculated value of water film thickness increases slowly with the increase of rainfall intensity.

Key words: water film thickness, precipitation, forecast model, Beijing-Tibet Expressway

代青措, 保广裕, 祁栋林, 李永花, 刘佳茹, 张静, 李宝华. 京藏高速青海东部地区汛期路面水膜厚度变化特征及预报模型构建[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(6): 1814-1823.

DAI Qingcuo, BAO Guangyu, QI Donglin, LI Yonghua, LIU Jiaru, ZHANG Jing, LI Baohua. Variation characteristics of pavement water film thickness in flood season and construction of forecast model for Beijing-Tibet Expressway in the eastern part of Qinghai[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(6): 1814-1823.

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设备型号	测量要素	范围	分辨率	准确度
温湿度传感器DHC2	气温/℃	-50~60	0.1	±0.1
温湿度传感器DHC2	相对湿度/%	0~100	1.0	±2.0（≤90%）、±3.0（>90%）
风向风速传感器ZQZ-TF	风速/m·s^-1	0~75	0.1	±（0.3+0.03 V）
雨量传感器SL3-1	降水量/mm	0~400（固态） 0~999.9（液态）	0.1	±0.4（≤10 mm）、±4.0（>10 mm）
路面温度传感器ZQZ-TW120	路面温度/℃	-60~80	0.1	±0.2
道面状况传感器WUSH-IRS31	水膜厚度/mm	0.00~10.00	0.01	-

级别	影响程度	划分标准	比例/%	对应措施
1级	正常	路面水膜厚度在0.1 mm以内	35.1	可接受
2级	差	路面水膜厚度在0.1~0.2 mm之间	29.5	需考虑水膜影响
3级	较差	路面水膜厚度在0.3~0.6 mm之间	28.1	需考虑水膜影响
4级	很差	路面水膜厚度大于0.7 mm以上	7.3	易发生水滑，引起车辆失稳、失控等危险

月份	回归方程	R²	F	平均误差	均方根误差	观测值与拟合值相关系数
5	SM=-0.243+0.173×R+0.004×HU	0.418	104.876	0.06	0.20	0.66
6	SM=0.040+0.138×R+0.198×SM_Q	0.508	135.107	0.06	0.20	0.71
7	SM=-0.318+0.102×R+0.004×HU+0.118×SM_Q	0.459	97.436	0.06	0.22	0.68
8	SM=0.501+0.108×R-0.023×T	0.428	151.763	0.05	0.22	0.65
9	SM=-0.226+0.096×R+0.003×HU+0.018×SM_Q	0.473	87.220	0.06	0.20	0.69
5—9	SM=-0.098+0.110×R-0.005×T+0.003×HU+0.095×SM_Q	0.445	361.853	-0.01	0.19	0.67

京藏高速青海东部地区汛期路面水膜厚度变化特征及预报模型构建

Variation characteristics of pavement water film thickness in flood season and construction of forecast model for Beijing-Tibet Expressway in the eastern part of Qinghai

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