干旱灾害, 标准化降水指数, Copula, 联合分布, 京津冀 ," /> 干旱灾害, 标准化降水指数, Copula, 联合分布, 京津冀 ,"/> drought, standardized precipitation index, Copula, joint distribution, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region ,"/> <span> </span> <span><span><span>基于</span></span><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;">Copula</span><span><span>的近</span></span><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;">60 a</span><span><span>京津冀地区干旱灾害危险性评估</span></span></span> <span> </span>
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干旱区地理 ›› 2019, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 1310-1321.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.06.09

• 气候与水文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Copula的近60 a京津冀地区干旱灾害危险性评估

李倩1,3，王瑛1,2,3，许映军1,2,3，俞海洋4，龙爽1,3，黄靖玲1,3   

  1. 1环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室，北京100875;2地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室，北京100875;3北京师范大学地理科学学部，北京100875;4河北省气象灾害防御中心，河北石家庄050021
  • 收稿日期:2019-02-18 修回日期:2019-06-07 出版日期:2019-11-15 发布日期:2019-11-17
  • 通讯作者: 许映军，男，博士，副教授
  • 作者简介:李倩，女，博士生，主要从事海岸带灾害与资源研究. E-mail: liqian@mail.bnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划支持项目(2017YFC1502505，2017YFA0604903)；河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室开放基金项目(Z201603H)

Hazard assessment of drought disasters in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on Copula for recent 60 years

LI Qian1,3,WANG Ying1,2,3,XU Ying-jun1,2,3,YU Hai-yang4,LONG Shuang1,3,HUANG Jing-ling1,3   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China; 2 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology,Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875,China; 3 Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China; 4 Hebei Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center,Shijiazhuang 050021,China
  • Received:2019-02-18 Revised:2019-06-07 Online:2019-11-15 Published:2019-11-17

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摘要：

干旱灾害是京津冀地区主要气象灾害之一，严重影响社会经济和粮食安全。评估京津冀地区干旱灾害危险性，识别高危险区，旨在为灾害防范和应急调控提供参考。利用1958—2017年37个气象站降水日数据，计算标准化降水指数（SPI6），根据游程理论界定干旱历时和干旱强度。运用K-S检验法、AIC法分别确定指标的最优边缘分布函数和Copula函数，计算5 a、10 a、30 a及50 a一遇水平下干旱强度和干旱历时的重现期。结果表明：京津冀地区20世纪60年代中期至今SPI6呈下降趋势；指数分布和广义极值分布分别是干旱历时和干旱强度的最优边缘分布，Frank Copula在变量联合概率分布计算时拟合最好；就干旱历时和干旱强度重现期而言，30 a、50 a一遇水平下联合重现期为，北京市、沧州市、衡水市及承德市北部等地区的重现期长，危险性低，其余地区危险性较高；站点干旱灾害的联合重现期理论值与实际情况较符合，能够反映实际灾害情况。


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Abstract:

Drought disaster is one of the major meteorological disasters in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China with serious economic and food security impacts. The hazard of drought disasters is evaluated to identify the high hazard areas, and provide references for the disaster prevention and emergency control. Based on the precipitation data of 37 meteorological stations from 1958 to 2017, the standardized precipitation index at 6-month scale (SPI6) is calculated. And the drought duration and the drought severity are defined using the run theory. We use Kolmogorov-Smirnov method and AIC method to confirm the most fitted marginal distributions and the Copula function. The return periods of drought duration and drought severity are calculated under different return periods (RP 5 a, 10 a, 30 a, 50 a).The results show that the SPI6 is in a downward trend from the mid-1960s to current times. The exponential distribution and the generalized extreme value distribution are the optimal marginal distributions of drought duration and drought intensity, respectively. Frank Copula has the best fitting in the calculation of joint probability distribution. As far as the joint return periods of drought duration and drought severity show Beijing, Cangzhou, Hengshui and north Chengde of Hebei Province have a long joint return period with low hazard and the rest of the region has a short joint return period with high hazard (RP 30 a, 50 a).The theoretical joint return period of the drought disaster is close to the actual situation, which indicates that the joint return period can better reflect the situations of drought disasters.

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