基于FloodArea模型新疆山洪淹没模拟及致灾临界雨量阈值的研究——以皮里青河流域为例

干旱区地理 ›› 2018, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (1): 48-55.

基于FloodArea模型新疆山洪淹没模拟及致灾临界雨量阈值的研究——以皮里青河流域为例

张连成^1,2, 江远安¹, 刘精¹, 余行杰¹, 樊静¹, 吴秀兰¹, 白素琴¹, 段均泽¹, 邱辉³, 吴一虹³

1. 新疆维吾尔自治区气候中心, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830002;
2. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830002;
3. 伊宁县气象局, 新疆伊宁 835100

收稿日期:2017-07-01 修回日期:2017-10-12 出版日期:2018-01-25
通讯作者: 江远安(1969-),女,安徽和县人,正研级高工,主要从事气候、气温变化研究.E-mail:jya_69@163.com
作者简介:张连成(1990-),男,江苏徐州人,工程师,主要研究方向为气象灾害影响评估.E-mail:524480929@qq.com
基金资助:
中国沙漠气象科学研究基金（Sqj2017009）；新疆气象局青年基金（Q201804）

Mountain flood simulation and critical rainfall threshold incurring disaster based on the FloodArea model:a case of Piliqing River Valley as an example

ZHANG Lian-cheng^1,2, JIANG Yuan-an¹, LIU Jing¹, YU Xing-jie¹, FAN Jing¹, WU Xiu-lan¹, BAI Su-qin¹, DUAN Jun-ze¹, QIU Hui³, WU Yi-hong³

1. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Climate Center, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang China;
2. Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang China;
3. Yining County Meteorological Bureau, Yining 835000, Xinjiang China

Received:2017-07-01 Revised:2017-10-12 Online:2018-01-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以皮里青河流域为研究区，运用小时降水、土地利用类型、数字高程（DEM）、实测淹没深度等数据，基于FloodArea模型对研究区2010年5月2日、2012年6月3日、2016年5月9日、2016年6月17日洪水过程进行再现模拟，通过精度验证并建立了降水－淹没深度的关系，在此基础上确定了4个淹没等级对应的致灾临界雨量。相关分析得出喀拉亚尕奇乡累计8 h降雨量与模拟洪水淹没深度的相关性最好，达到了0.96，潘津乡降雨累计5 h的相关性最好，为0.99；通过实测数据对模拟淹没深度进行精度检验得出，喀拉亚尕奇乡和潘津乡两个考察点相对误差分别为0.47 m和0.1 m，误差率分别为31.33%和7.69%，FloodArea模型对研究区洪水过程模拟的效果较好，可以反映出该区域的洪水淹没情况，能为无水文资料的山区流域的山洪过程进行较为精准的模拟；按照山洪灾害等级划分标准和降水-淹没深度的关系得出，预警点累计5 h降水得到对应4个等级的致灾临界雨量阈值分别为：四级17.84 mm、三级32.39 mm、二级54.21 mm、一级76.04 mm。

关键词: FloodArea模型, 皮里青河流域, 淹没模拟, 致灾临界雨量阈值

Abstract: This paper was taking the Piliqing River Valley as the study area.Based on the FloodArea model, we simulated four flood processes occurred on May 2,2010,June 3,2012,May 9,2016 and June 17,2016 respectively in the region with the data about hourly precipitation,land use type,digital elevation (DEM) and the actual flood depth.Through the precision verification,the relationship between the rainfall and the flood depth was established which served as the basis to determine four critical rainfall thresholds corresponding to the four submergence levels.The results showed that the correlation between the simulated flood depth and the precipitation hit the best when there were eight hours of rainfall in the town of Karayagaqi with the value of 0.963.While for the town of Panjin,it was five-hour rainfall to achieve the best correlation at the value of 0.995.Comparing the simulated flood depth with the measured value on site indicated that the relative errors of the two sites,the town of Karayagaqi and the town of Panjin were 0.47 m and 0.1 m respectively with the error rate being 31.33% and 7.69% respectively.The results also proved that the FloodArea model has a good effect on the simulation of flood process in the study area,an ungauged mountainous region.According to the relationship between the flood depth and precipitation and the criterion of the mountain flood disaster level,the critical rainfall thresholds corresponding to the four levels at the warning point with 5 hours of precipitation accumulated were 17.84 mm for level 432.39 mm for level 354.21 mm for level 2 and 76.04 mm for level 1 respectively.

Key words: FloodArea model, Piliqing River Basin, flood simulation, critical rainfall threshold incurring disaster

中图分类号:

P426.616

张连成, 江远安, 刘精, 余行杰, 樊静, 吴秀兰, 白素琴, 段均泽, 邱辉, 吴一虹. 基于FloodArea模型新疆山洪淹没模拟及致灾临界雨量阈值的研究——以皮里青河流域为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(1): 48-55.

ZHANG Lian-cheng, JIANG Yuan-an, LIU Jing, YU Xing-jie, FAN Jing, WU Xiu-lan, BAI Su-qin, DUAN Jun-ze, QIU Hui, WU Yi-hong. Mountain flood simulation and critical rainfall threshold incurring disaster based on the FloodArea model:a case of Piliqing River Valley as an example[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(1): 48-55.

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