气候变化和人类活动对汾河流域径流情势影响分析

干旱区地理 ›› 2018, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (1): 25-31.

气候变化和人类活动对汾河流域径流情势影响分析

王登, 荐圣淇, 胡彩虹

郑州大学水利与环境学院, 河南郑州 450001

收稿日期:2017-07-05 修回日期:2017-10-29 出版日期:2018-01-25
通讯作者: 胡彩虹(1968-),女,山西平遥人,博士,教授,主要从事水文学及水资源方面的教学和科研工作.E-mail:hucaihong@zzu.edu.cn
作者简介:王登(1995-),男,山西运城人,在读硕士研究生,主要从事水文学及水资源方面的研究.E-mail:594911186@qq.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划水资源高效开发利用重点专项（2016YFC040240203）

Impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff in Fenhe River Basin

WANG Deng, JIAN Sheng-qi, HU Cai-hong

College of water conservancy and environmental science Zhengzhou University, Henan, Zhengzhou, 450001

Received:2017-07-05 Revised:2017-10-29 Online:2018-01-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在人类活动和气候变化的影响下，汾河入黄径流量锐减，加剧了山西省水资源短缺的现状，并引起生态环境的恶化，同时入黄径流量的减少致使黄河干流流量的减少，加剧了黄河中下游的水资源短缺。以汾河流域为研究区，采用水文变异诊断系统分析了汾河流域入黄控制站河津站1956—2012年的径流情势的变化情况，入黄径流有显著下降的趋势，并且在1971年左右发生了突变减少。然后采用多元分析方法，分析造成径流突变减少的影响因子，其径流受到降水量、潜在蒸散发量和人类活动引起的流域属性改变的影响。随后采用Budyko公式分析其敏感性，在相对较长的时间尺度上，气候变化对径流的影响比人类活动更加敏感。最后采用累计斜率法分析上述参数对径流的影响比率，得到径流量受降水量、潜在蒸散发量和流域属性的影响比率分别为16.29%、-4.86%和88.57%。

关键词: 汾河流域, 趋势变异诊断, 径流影响因子分析, 变化敏感性分析, 影响比率分析

Abstract: China's Loess Plateau suffers from severe water shortages.Quantitative analysis of the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff is important for water resource management.Taking Fenhe River Basin as the study area,the runoff data at the Hejin Station which controls Fenhe River Basin's flow into the Yellow River from 1956 to 2012 was analyzed using the hydrological variation diagnosis system.The result showed that the runoff into the Yellow River had a significant downward trend and it took a dive in about 1971.The influencing factors that caused the dramatic reduction of the runoff was then investigated using the multivariate analysis method and it revealed that the runoff was affected by precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and the change of watershed attributes resulted from human activities.The sensitivity of each factor was further analyzed with Budyko formula which drew a conclusion that in a relatively long time period,the runoff variation was more sensitive to the climate change than human activities.At last,the impact ratio of these factors was calculated using the cumulative slope method and the values for the precipitation,the potential evapotranspiration and the change of basin attribute were 16.29%,-4.86% and 88.57% respectively.

Key words: Fenhe River Basin, variation trend diagnosis, analysis of influencing factors of runoff, change sensitivity analysis, impact ratio analysis

中图分类号:

P461

王登, 荐圣淇, 胡彩虹. 气候变化和人类活动对汾河流域径流情势影响分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(1): 25-31.

WANG Deng, JIAN Sheng-qi, HU Cai-hong. Impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff in Fenhe River Basin[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(1): 25-31.

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