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干旱区地理 ›› 2017, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 920-924.

• 区域发展 • 上一篇    

能源强度对碳强度的冲击效应和贡献度研究

汪行1, 范中启1, 张颖2   

  1. 1. 中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院, 北京 100083;
    2. 北京林业大学经济管理学院, 北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-16 修回日期:2017-03-26 出版日期:2017-07-25
  • 作者简介:汪行(1989-),男,中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院博士研究生,主要从事能源经济与计量经济研究.Email:2862972308@qq.com

Impact and contribution of energy intensity to China's carbon intensity

WANG Xing1, FAN Zhong-qi1, ZHANG Ying2   

  1. 1. School of Management, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing 100083, China;
    2. School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2016-12-16 Revised:2017-03-26 Online:2017-07-25

摘要: 能源强度对碳强度具有重要影响。实证分析表明:长期内,能源强度与碳强度之间存在稳定的协整关系且呈现正向效应。通过脉冲响应函数可知,能源强度对碳强度的冲击效应最大为13%。从方差分解可知,能源强度对碳强度的贡献度随着预测期的不断增加而提高,即能源强度对碳强度变化的贡献度最大为32.9%。

关键词: 能源强度, 碳强度, VAR模型, 冲击效应, 贡献度

Abstract: Energy intensity has an important impact on carbon intensity. The empirical analysis of China during 1953-2014 shows that there is a stable co-integration relationship between energy intensity and carbon intensity in the long run and presents a positive effect. Through the impulse response function we can see that the impact of energy intensity on carbon intensity is up to 13%. From the variance decomposition we can see that the contribution of energy intensity to carbon intensity increases with the increase of prediction period,that is,the contribution of energy intensity to carbon intensity is 32.9%. After the above analyses we can get the following conclusions:(1)Improving the energy consumption structure. The optimization of energy consumption structure is of great significance to carbon emission reduction,and government departments should build a green,circular,clean and low-carbon modern energy system to speed up the improvement of coal utilization,increase clean coal technology development efforts,establish a sound clean coal technology to promote the use of policies and systems to achieve efficient and safe,environmentally friendly development purposes.(2)Reducing energy intensity. Since the reform and opening up,China's energy efficiency has been rising,but the energy intensity is three times of the world level. Therefore,China's energy industry development should limit the too high,too fast development of high energy consumption industry,reduce their proportion,and eliminate backward production capacity and low technology to achieve low-carbon economy. At the same time,the government should also vigorously develop the modern service industry and high-tech industries,improve their proportion,to achieve economic and environmental green,harmony,environmental protection,clean development,and should also promote the sustainable development of low-carbon industries through taxation and subsidy policies,establish and improve relevant laws and regulations,impose carbon taxes on industries with high energy consumption,and improve people's low-carbon ideas and establish low-carbon values,and thus improve energy efficiency.

Key words: energy intensity, carbon intensity, VAR model, impact effect, contribution

中图分类号: 

  • F062.1