西北干旱区极端气候水文事件特征分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 中国西北干旱区是对全球变化响应最敏感地区之一。气候变化导致气候水文系统的不稳定性加剧，极端气候水文事件的频度和强度增大、重现期缩短，灾害程度加重。借助资料分析和文献阅读，对过去50 a中国西北干旱区极端气候/水文事件的发生规律、影响机制及未来趋势进行了梳理总结，主要结论如下：（1）西北干旱区的极端气候/水文事件呈逐年增加趋势，特别是20世纪70年代以来增加显著；气温和降水极值都表现为一致的增强趋势。降水量的增多是降雨频率和强度共同增加的结果。（2）中国西北干旱区低温、降水极值在1986年左右发生了明显的突变，高温极值在1996年左右发生突变。突变后，气温和降水极值均发生了显著增强变化。（3）北半球极涡面积指数和青藏高原指数对西北干旱区气候极值变化具有重要影响，冬季极值还受冬季北极涛动和北大西洋涛动等影响。（4）新疆地区有变暖湿趋势，而河西走廊东部则为变干趋势。强大的西伯利亚高压和增强的贝加尔湖气流造成新疆地区降水增加，而河西走廊干旱增加是由东亚夏季风减弱引起的。

关键词: 极端气候水文事件, 遥相关, 气候突变, 西北干旱区

Abstract: The arid region of northwestern China is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change. Climate change have increased the instability of hydrological climate system, resulted in increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes, as well as shortern the return periods. This paper systematically reviewed the occurrence characteristics, mechanisms and future trends of the extreme climatic/hydrological events in the arid region of northwestern China. Spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature extremes were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall trend test. The results show that all temperature extremes showed warming patterns, and most of the stations showed significant trends. Warming trends of indices derived from daily minimum temperature were of greater magnitudes than those from maximum temperature, and stations along the Tianshan Mountain had larger trend magnitudes. The number of rainy days had significantly increased. Meanwhile, the precipitation intensity had also significantly increased, which suggested that the increased precipitation in the arid region of northwestern China was due to the increase in both precipitation frequency and intensity. The frequency of extreme hydrological events, such as hail, snowstorm, debris flow, also exhibited an obvious increasing trend, particularly since 1970s. Based on the general circulation models (GCMs), the warm extremes will exhibit increasing trends, while the cold extremes will continue to decrease in intensity, magnitude and duration. However, the simulated results derived from GCMs possess large uncertainties, which lead to larger simulated error in the model-predicted extremes than that in mean variability. The relationships between climate extreme trends and elevation were also discussed, and the suggestion of elevation dependency could be misleading in the arid region of northwestern China. Except for linear trends, another change charactersitic for time series is abrupt change. Results indicate abrupt changes in both cold temperature and precipitation extremes occurred in 1986, while the warm temperature extremes was observed in 1996. The temperature and precipitation extremes had significant change after the abrupt change year. Additionally, teleconnection analysis shows that Northern Hemisphere polar vortex area and Tibetan Plateau High were probably the important factors for changes in both temperature and precipitation extremes in the arid region of northwestern China; extremes in winter were also affected by winter Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. The general evolution of drought was obtained by rotated empirical orthogonal function, as a result, three drought-related spatial patterns were observed, named North Xinjiang, South Xinjiang, and Hexi Corridor, respectively.The North Xinjiang and South Xinjiang revealed wetter trend, while Hexi Corridor showed a dryer trend. The drying trend over the Hexi Corridor was resulted from a weaker Eastern Asian summer monsoon; whereas, a strong Siberian high-pressure and enhanced airflow from the Baikal Lake resulted in increased precipitation in the Xinjiang regions. This paper is a summary of the current researches, which can provide basis for the in-deep study of climate extremes in the arid region of northwestern China.

Key words: extreme climatic/hydrological events, teleconnections, abrupt change, arid region of northwestern China

中图分类号:

P467

陈亚宁, 王怀军, 王志成, 张辉. 西北干旱区极端气候水文事件特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2017, 40(1): 1-9.

CHEN Ya-ning, WANG Huai-jun, WANG Zhi-cheng, ZHANG Hui. Characteristics of extreme climatic/hydrological events in the arid region of northwestern China[J]. , 2017, 40(1): 1-9.

参考文献

[1] 陈颙, 史培军. 自然灾害[M]. 北京:北京师范大学出版社, 2013.[CHEN Yong, SHI Peijun. Natural disaster[M]. Beijing:Beijing Normal University Press, 2013.]

[2] SHI P J, KASPERSON P. World atlas of natural disaster risk[M]. Beijing:Beijing Normal University Press and Berlin Heidelberg:Springer, 2015.

[3] CHEN Y N, XU Z X. Plausible impact of globe climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin, China[J]. Science in China, 2005, 48(1):65-73.

[4] CHEN Y N, TAKEUCHI K, XU C C, et al. Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin, China[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2006, 20(10):2207-2216.

[5] WANG H J, CHEN Y N, PAN Y P, et al. Spatial and temporal variability of drought in the arid region of China and its relationships to teleconnection indices[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2015, 523:283-296.

[6] LIU C M, CHEN Y N, XU Z X. Eco-hydrology and sustainable development in the arid regions of China Preface[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2010, 24(2):127-128.

[7] WANG H, CHEN Y, CHEN Z. Changes in annual and seasonal temperature extremes in the arid region of China, 1960-2010[J]. Natural Hazards, 2013, 65(3):1913-1930.

[8] YOU Q L, KANG S C, PEPIN N, et al. Relationship between trends in temperature extremes and elevation in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau, 1961-2005[J]. Geophysical Research Letters 2008, 35(4):317-333.

[9] SHEN Y J, LIU C M, LIU M, et al. Change in pan evaporation over the past 50 years in the arid region of China[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2010, 24(2):225-231.

[10] ALEXANDER L V, ZHANG X, PETERSON T C, et al. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 2006, 111(D5):1042-1063.

[11] 李红英, 高振荣, 王胜, 等. 近60 a河西走廊极端气温的变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2015, 38(1):1-9.[LI Hongying, GAO Zhenrong, WANG Sheng, et al. Extreme temperature variation of Hexi Corridor in recent 60 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2015, 38(1):1-9.]

[12] WANG H, CHEN Y, CHEN Z. Spatial distribution and temporal trends of mean precipitation and extremes in the arid region, northwest of China, during 1960-2010[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2013, 27(12):1807-1818.

[13] 钱莉, 杨永龙, 张宇林, 等. 河西走廊东部极端降水的时空分布及影响因子分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2015, 38(2):207-214.[QIAN Li, YANG Yonglong, ZHANG Yulin, et al. Temporal and spatial distribution and influence factors of extreme precipitation in eastern Hexi Corridor[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2015, 38(2):207-214.]

[14] WANG H, CHEN Y, XUN S, et al. Changes in daily climate extremes in the arid area of northwestern China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2013, 112(1-2):15-28.

[15] 王少平, 姜逢清, 吴小波, 等. 1961-2010年西北干旱区极端降水指数的时空变化分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(2):318-326.[WANG Shaoping, JIANG Fengqing, WU Xiaobo, et al. Temporal and spatial variability of the extreme precipitation indices over the arid regions in Northwest China from 1961 to 2010[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(2):318-326.]

[16] 陈亚宁, 杨青, 罗毅, 等. 西北干旱区水资源问题研究思考[J]. 干旱区地理, 2012, 35(1):1-9.[CHEN Yaning, YANG Qing, LUO Yi, et al. Ponder on the issues of water resources in the arid region of northwest China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2012, 35(1):1-9.]

[17] WANG H, CHEN Y, PAN Y. Characteristics of drought in the arid region of northwestern China[J]. Climate Research, 2015, 62(2):99-113.

[18] 何建村, 白云岗, 张严俊. 基于MODIS数据新疆土壤干旱特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2015, 38(4):735-742.[HE Jiancun, BAI Yungang, ZHANG Yanjun. Soil drought characteristics in Xinjiang with remote sensing data[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2015, 38(4):735-742.]

[19] 李净, 刘红兵, 李龙, 等. 基于多源遥感数据集的近30a西北地区植被动态变化研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(2):387-394.[LI Jing, LIU Hongbing, LI Long, et al. Vegetation dynamic changes in northwest China based on multi-source remote sensing datasets in recent 30 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2016, 39(2):387-394.]

[20] CHEN Y, XU C, CHEN Y, et al. Response of glacial-lake outburst floods to climate change in the Yarkant River basin on northern slope of Karakoram Mountains, China[J]. Quaternary International, 2010, 226(1-2):75-81.

[21] 吴素芬, 王志杰, 吴超存, 等. 新疆主要河流水文极值变化趋势[J]. 干旱区地理, 2010, 33(1):1-7.[WU Sufen, WANG Zhijie, WU Chaocun, et al. Variable tendency of hydrological extreme of the main rivers in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2010, 33(1):1-7.]

[22] WANG H, CHEN Y, LI W. Hydrological extreme variability in the headwater of Tarim River:links with atmospheric teleconnection and regional climate[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 28(2):443-453.

[23] 孙桂丽, 陈亚宁, 李卫红, 等. 新疆极端水文事件的时空分布特征[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2012(3):119-125.[SUN Guili, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong, et al. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of extreme hydrological events in Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2012,(3):119-125.]

[24] 孙桂丽, 陈亚宁, 李卫红. 新疆极端水文事件年际变化及对气候变化的响应[J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(11):1389-1395.[SUN Guili, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong. Interannual and interdecadal variations of extreme hydrological events and response to climate change in xinjiang[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2011, 31(11):1389-1395.]

[25] SUN G, CHEN Y, LI W, et al. Intra-annual distribution and decadal change in extreme hydrological events in Xinjiang, Northwestern China[J]. Natural Hazards, 2014, 70(1):119-133.

[26] 孙桂丽, 陈亚宁, 李卫红, 等. 新疆极端水文事件年内分布的非均匀性[J]. 灾害学, 2011, 26(2):18-23.[SUN Guili, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong, et al. Heterogeneity of annual distribution of extreme hydrological events in xinjiang[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2011, 26(2):18-23.]

[27] ZHANG Q, SINGH V P, LI J F, et al. Spatio-temporal variations of precipitation extremes in Xinjiang, China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2012, 434:7-18.

[28] BENISTON M, DIAZ H F, BRADLEY R S. Climatic change at high elevation sites:An overview[J]. Climatic Change, 1997, 36(3-4):233-251.

[29] SEIDEL D J, FREE M. Comparison of lower-tropospheric temperature climatologies and trends at low and high elevation radiosonde sites[J]. Climatic Change, 2003, 59(1-2):53-74.

[30] PEPIN N C, LUNDQUIST J D. Temperature trends at high elevations:Patterns across the globe[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 35(14).

[31] LIU X D, CHEN B D. Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2000, 20(14):1729-1742.

[32] CHEN B, CHAO W C, LIU X. Enhanced climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau due to doubling CO₂:a model study[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2003, 20(4):401-413.

[33] YOU Q, KANG S, PEPIN N, et al. Relationship between temperature trend magnitude, elevation and mean temperature in the Tibetan Plateau from homogenized surface stations and reanalysis data[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2010, 71(1-2):124-133.

[34] KIOUTSIOUKIS I, MELAS D, ZEREFOS C. Statistical assessment of changes in climate extremes over Greece(1955-2002)[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2010, 30(11):1723-1737.

[35] TANK A, PETERSON T C, QUADIR D A, et al. Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 2006, 111(D16):709-720.

[36] WANG Y Q, ZHOU L. Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during 1961-2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32(9):982.

[37] ZHANG Q A, XU C Y, ZHANG Z X, et al. Precipitation extremes in a karst region:a case study in the Guizhou province, southwest China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2010, 101(1-2):53-65.

[38] GEMMER M, FISCHER T, JIANG T, et al. Trends in precipitation extremes in the zhujiang river basin, south china[J]. Journal of Climate, 2011, 24(3):750-761.

[39] PAVAN V, TOMOZEIU R, CACCIAMANI C, et al. Daily precipitation observations over Emilia-Romagna:mean values and extremes[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2008,28(15):2065-2079.

[40] CURTIS S, SALAHUDDIN A, ADLER R F, et al. Precipitation extremes estimated by GPCP and TRMM:ENSO relationships[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2007, 8(4):678-689.

[41] SHI P F, YANG T, ZHANG K, et al. Large-scale climate patterns and precipitation in an arid endorheic region:linkage and underlying mechanism[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2016, 11(4).

[42] YOU Q L, KANG S C, AGUILAR E, et al. Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961-2003[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2011, 36(11-12):2399-2417.

[43] XU C, CHEN Y, YANG Y, et al. Hydrology and water resources variation and its response to regional climate change in Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2010, 20(4):599-612.

[44] YANG Y, CHEN Y, LI W, et al. Climatic change of inland river basin in an arid area:a case study in northern Xinjiang, China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2012, 107(1-2):143-154.

[45] DENG H, CHEN Y, SHI X, et al. Dynamics of temperature and precipitation extremes and their spatial variation in the arid region of northwest China[J]. Atmosphric Research, 2014, 138(3):346-355.

[46] 张林梅, 苗运玲, 李健丽, 等. 新疆阿勒泰地区近50 a夏季极端降水事件变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(5):1199-1208.[ZHANG Linmei, MIAO Yunling, LI Jianli, et al. Variations of summer extreme precipitation events in Altay Prefecture, Xinjiang Region, from 1961 to 2010[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2015, 37(5):1199-1208.]

[47] WANG H, CHEN Y, LI W. Characteristics in streamflow and extremes in the Tarim River, China:trends, distribution and climate linkage[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2015, 35(5):761-776.

[48] XU L, ZHOU H, LIANG C, et al. Spatial and temporal variability of annual and seasonal precipitation over the desert region of China during 1951-2005[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2010, 24(20):2947-2959.

[49] COOLEY D, SAIN S R. Spatial hierarchical modeling of precipitation extremes from a regional climate model[J]. Journal of Agricultural Biological and Environmental Statistics, 2010, 15(3):381-402.

[50] SYLLA M B, GAYE A T, JENKINS G S, et al. Consistency of projected drought over the Sahel with changes in the monsoon circulation and extremes in a regional climate model projections[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 2010, 115:751-763.

[51] KJELLSTROM E, BARRING L, JACOB D, et al. Modelling daily temperature extremes:recent climate and future changes over Europe[J]. Climatic Change, 2007, 81:249-265.

[52] 吴晶, 罗毅, 李佳, 等. CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区模拟能力评价[J]. 干旱区地理, 2014, 37(3):499-508.[WU Jing, LUO Yi, LI Jia, et al. Evaluation of CMIP5 modes's simulation ability in the northwest arid areas of China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2014, 37(3):499-508.]

[53] 黄金龙, 陶辉, 苏布达, 等. 塔里木河流域极端气候事件模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2014, 37(3):490-498.[HUANG Jinlong, TAO Hui, SU Buda, et al. Simulation of climate extreme events in the Tarim River Basin and projection under the RCP4.5 scenario[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2014, 37(3):490-498.]

[54] 姚凤梅, 秦鹏程, 张佳华, 等. 基于模型模拟气候变化对农业影响评估的不确定性及处理方法[J]. 科学通报, 2011, 56(8):547-555.[YAO Fengmei, QIN Pengchen, ZHANG Jiahua, et al. Uncertaintities in aseesing the effects of climate change onagricuture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2011,(8):547-555.]

[55] WALSH J E, CHAPMAN W L, ROMANOVSKY V, et al. Global climate model performance over Alaska and Greenland[J]. Journal of Climate, 2008, 21(21):6156-6174.

[56] ZHOU T, YU R. Twentieth-century surface air temperature over China and the Globe simulated by coupled climate models[J]. Journal of Climate, 2006, 19(22):5843.

[57] LIU T, WILLEMS P, PAN X L, et al. Climate change impact on water resource extremes in a headwater region of the Tarim basin in China[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2011, 15(11):3511-3527.