基于修正Z指数的辽西北春旱演变分析

干旱区地理 ›› 2017, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 10-16.

基于修正Z指数的辽西北春旱演变分析

曹永强¹, 郑爽¹, 范帅邦², 郭明¹

1 辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院, 辽宁大连 116029;
2 北京大学城市与环境学院, 北京 100871

收稿日期:2016-09-09 修回日期:2016-12-01 出版日期:2017-01-25
作者简介:曹永强(1972-),男,教授,主要从事水文水资源方面研究.Email:caoyongqiang@lnnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室2015年对外开放研究基金（sklhse-2016-A-02）；中国科学院农业水资源重点实验室2016年对外开放基金（KFKT201602）

Evolution analysis of spring drought events in Northwest Liaoning based on grade adjustment of Z-Index

CAO Yong-qiang¹, ZHENG Shuang¹, FAN Shuai-bang², GUO Ming¹

1 School of urban planning and Environmental science, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China;
2 The College of Urban and Environmental Sciences of Peking. University Beijing, Beijing 100871, China

Received:2016-09-09 Revised:2016-12-01 Online:2017-01-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用辽西北地区39个雨量站1971-2013年逐日降水资料，选取Z指数为指标，根据国家干旱等级标准和辽西北实际情况对不同等级干旱所对应的界限值进行修正，基于修正后的Z指数，采用小波分析方法和Kriging空间插值法对辽西北地区春旱时空演变规律进行分析。结果表明：在辽西北地区春旱总频次各年代际变化中，大旱、重旱上升趋势明显，从20世纪70年代以来，春旱发生频次由8.1%上升到12.5%，重旱发生频次由3.6%上升到4.8%。周期变化中，辽西北春旱存在10 a左右的主周期。空间上，辽西北地区春旱具有明显的区域性，由南向北递增，春季各等级干旱高发区主要集中于朝阳市各县。

关键词: 春旱, Z指数修正, 演变特征, 时空特性, 辽西北

Abstract: Under the background of global warming, drought has become one of the worst natural disasters, and seriously affects people's production and life. Recently, inclement weather frequently occurred, especially that the localized drought has further aggravated. In northwest Liaoning Province, China where the main crops are corn and rice, the spring drought occurred frequently and has become the key factor affecting the agricultural production in planting season. Therefore, the research of spring drought conditions has important practical significance for relieving drought and controlling desertification in northwest Liaoning. Based on 39 rainfall stations' daily rainfall data from 1971 to 2013 and historical drought information in northwest Liaoning, using the readjusted Z-Index which is obtained by adjusting the critical value of calculated drought frequency at different levels with the theoretical one that is from National Drought Grade Standards, wavelet analysis and kriging spatial interpolation method, this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of spring droughts in northwest Liaoning. The results show as follows: (1)compared with the theoretical drought frequency, the drought frequency represented by the readjusted Z-Index matched better to the actual drought in northwest Liaoning; (2)the spring drought frequency changed in Northwest Liaoning, and the rising trend of great drought and severe drought was obvious; from 1970s to the 21st century, the frequency of spring great drought rose from 8.1% to 12.5%, the frequency of spring severe drought rose from 3.6% to 4.8%; (3)spring drought had a 10-year cycle in northwest Liaoning; spring drought is obviously regional, increasing by degrees from the south to north, and the high incidence area of spring drought at different levels mainly concentrated on Chaoyang Prefecture. This study analyzed the evolution law of spring drought in northwest Liaoning, which can provide a reference for the relevant departments to make countermeasures to drought in this area. The main innovation of this article is the proposition of the readjusted Z index.

Key words: spring drought, Z-Index adjustment, evolution rule, spatial and temporal characteristics, north west Liaoning

中图分类号:

S166

曹永强, 郑爽, 范帅邦, 郭明. 基于修正Z指数的辽西北春旱演变分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2017, 40(1): 10-16.

CAO Yong-qiang, ZHENG Shuang, FAN Shuai-bang, GUO Ming. Evolution analysis of spring drought events in Northwest Liaoning based on grade adjustment of Z-Index[J]. , 2017, 40(1): 10-16.

参考文献

[1] 邹旭恺, 张强.近半个世纪我国干旱变化的初步研究[J]. 应用气象学报, 2008, 19(6):679-687.[ZOU Xukai, ZHANG Qiang. Preliminary studies on variations in droughts over China during past 50 years[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2008, 19(6):679-687.]

[2] 邹旭恺, 任国玉, 张强. 基于综合气象干旱指数的中国干旱变化趋势研究[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2010, 15(4):371-378.[ZOU Xukai, REN Guoyu, ZHANG Qiang. Droughts variations in China based on a compound index of meteorological drought[J].Climatic and Environmental Research, 2010, 15(4):371-378.]

[3] 路广平, 郁凌峰, 梁立章. 2009年辽西北地区特大干旱的分析[J]. 东北水利水电, 2011, 10:50-51.[LU Guangping, YU Lingfeng, LIANG Lizhang. Analysis of drought of 2009 in northwestern Liaoning[J]. Water Resources and Hydropower of Northeast China, 2011, 10:50-51.]

[4] 苏阳. 基于修正Z指数的辽西北地区干旱时空规律研究[D]. 大连:辽宁师范大学, 2013.[SU Yang. Based on grade adjustment of Z-index temporal and spatial analysis on drought events in Northwest Liaoning[D]. Dalina:Liaoning Normal University, 2013.]

[5] 周晋红, 李丽平, 秦爱民. 山西气象干旱指标的确定及干旱气候变化研究[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2010, 28(3):240-247.[ZHOU Jinhong, LI Liping, QIN Aimin.Study on the determination of meteorological drought index climate changes in Shanxi Province[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2010, 28(3):240-247.]

[6] WU H, HAYES M J, WEISS Albert, et al. An evaluation of the standardized precipitation index, the China-Z index and the statistical Z-Score[J].Interactional Journal of Climatology, 2001, 21:745-758.

[7] 方茸, 周后福, 屈雅.基于江淮分水岭地区的Z指数修正[J]. 气象, 2010, 36(10):110-113.[FANG Rong, ZHOU Houfu, QU Ya. Adjustment of Z-index based on Jianghuai watershed area[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2010, 36(10):110-113.]

[8] 刘闻, 曹明明, 宋进喜, 等. 陕西年降水量变化特征及周期分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2013, 36(5):865-874.[LIU Wen, CAO Mingming, SONG Jinxi, et al. Spatio-temporal distribution and temporal periodicity of annual precipitation in Shaanxi Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2013, 36(5) 865-874.]

[9] 姚玉璧, 董安祥, 王毅荣, 等. 基于帕默尔干旱指数的中国春季区域干旱特征比较研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2007, 30(1):22-29.[YAO Yubi, DONG Anxiang, WANG Yirong, er al. Compare research of the regional arid characteristic base on Palmer drought severity index in spring over China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2007, 30(1):22-29.]

[10] 刘和平, 王秀颖, 梁凤国, 等. 辽西北地区45年来年降水量时空分布特征[J]. 水电能源科学, 2013, 31(4):18-22.[LIU Heping, WANG Xiuying, LIANG Fengguo, et al. Temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in northwestern Liaoning over the past forty-five years[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2013, 31(4):18-22.]

[11] 牛存稳, 张利平, 夏军.华北地区降水量的小波分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2004, 27(1):66-70.[NIU Cunwen, ZHANG Liping, HU Jun.Wavelet analysis on the precipitation in North China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2004, 27(1):66-70.]

[12] 许力. 中国地面气象要素最优无偏客观分析方法研究及网格资料集研究[J]. 应用气象学报, 2004, 8(1):32-34.[XU Li. China ground meteorological elements of optimal unbiased objective analysis method and grid data set research[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2004, 8(1):32-34.]

[13] 段一贯. 辽宁省干旱分析[J]. 东北水利水电, 1991, 83:29-35.[Duan Yiguan. Analysis of drought in Liaoning Province[J]. Water Resources & Hydropower of Northeast China, 1991, 83:29-35.]

[14] 辽宁省水利厅. 2006年辽西北地区特大伏旱[M]. 沈阳:辽宁科学技术出版社, 2007.[Water Resources Department of Liaoning Province.2006 serious summer drought in northwestern Liaoning[M]. Shenyang:Liaoning science and Technology Press.]

[15] 葛岩, 李趋, 褚丽妹, 等. 基于修正Z指数辽西北地区干旱时空特性分析[J]. 灌溉排水学报, 2013, 10(5):133-136.[GE Yan, LI Qu, CHU Limei, et al. Tempraland spatial analysis on drgought events in Northwest of Liaoning based on adjusted Z-index[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 2013, 10(5):133-136.]

[16] 李鹤, 张平宇. 1990年以来东北地区工业结构演变特征及驱动因素[J]. 干旱区地理, 2012, 35(5):829-837.[LI He, ZHANG Pingyu. Main characteristics and driving factors of industry structure evolution in northeast China since 1990[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2012, 35(5):829-837.]

[17] 曹永强, 邵文婷, 张亮亮, 等. 基于可变模糊评价法的辽西北地区干旱分区研究[J]. 华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版), 2016, 1:29-34.[CAO Yongqiang.SHAO Wenting.ZHANG Liangliang. GUO Ming.Research on Drought Partition in the Northwest of Liaoning Province Based on the Variable Fuzzy Assessment Method[J]. Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition), 2016, 1:29-34.]

[18] 薛文, 刘娟, 迟道才. 辽西北半干旱地区旱灾时空演变特征分析[J]. 沈阳农业大学学报, 2015, 3:379-384.[XUE Wen, LIU Juan, CHI Daocai. Analysis on spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of drought in semiarid region of Northwest Liaoning[J]. Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University, 2015, 3:379-384.]