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干旱区地理 ›› 2017, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 10-16.

• 气候与水文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于修正Z指数的辽西北春旱演变分析

曹永强1, 郑爽1, 范帅邦2, 郭明1   

  1. 1 辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院, 辽宁 大连 116029;
    2 北京大学城市与环境学院, 北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2016-09-09 修回日期:2016-12-01 出版日期:2017-01-25
  • 作者简介:曹永强(1972-),男,教授,主要从事水文水资源方面研究.Email:caoyongqiang@lnnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室2015年对外开放研究基金(sklhse-2016-A-02);中国科学院农业水资源重点实验室2016年对外开放基金(KFKT201602)

Evolution analysis of spring drought events in Northwest Liaoning based on grade adjustment of Z-Index

CAO Yong-qiang1, ZHENG Shuang1, FAN Shuai-bang2, GUO Ming1   

  1. 1 School of urban planning and Environmental science, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China;
    2 The College of Urban and Environmental Sciences of Peking. University Beijing, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2016-09-09 Revised:2016-12-01 Online:2017-01-25

摘要: 利用辽西北地区39个雨量站1971-2013年逐日降水资料,选取Z指数为指标,根据国家干旱等级标准和辽西北实际情况对不同等级干旱所对应的界限值进行修正,基于修正后的Z指数,采用小波分析方法和Kriging空间插值法对辽西北地区春旱时空演变规律进行分析。结果表明:在辽西北地区春旱总频次各年代际变化中,大旱、重旱上升趋势明显,从20世纪70年代以来,春旱发生频次由8.1%上升到12.5%,重旱发生频次由3.6%上升到4.8%。周期变化中,辽西北春旱存在10 a左右的主周期。空间上,辽西北地区春旱具有明显的区域性,由南向北递增,春季各等级干旱高发区主要集中于朝阳市各县。

关键词: 春旱, Z指数修正, 演变特征, 时空特性, 辽西北

Abstract: Under the background of global warming, drought has become one of the worst natural disasters, and seriously affects people's production and life. Recently, inclement weather frequently occurred, especially that the localized drought has further aggravated. In northwest Liaoning Province, China where the main crops are corn and rice, the spring drought occurred frequently and has become the key factor affecting the agricultural production in planting season. Therefore, the research of spring drought conditions has important practical significance for relieving drought and controlling desertification in northwest Liaoning. Based on 39 rainfall stations' daily rainfall data from 1971 to 2013 and historical drought information in northwest Liaoning, using the readjusted Z-Index which is obtained by adjusting the critical value of calculated drought frequency at different levels with the theoretical one that is from National Drought Grade Standards, wavelet analysis and kriging spatial interpolation method, this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of spring droughts in northwest Liaoning. The results show as follows: (1)compared with the theoretical drought frequency, the drought frequency represented by the readjusted Z-Index matched better to the actual drought in northwest Liaoning; (2)the spring drought frequency changed in Northwest Liaoning, and the rising trend of great drought and severe drought was obvious; from 1970s to the 21st century, the frequency of spring great drought rose from 8.1% to 12.5%, the frequency of spring severe drought rose from 3.6% to 4.8%; (3)spring drought had a 10-year cycle in northwest Liaoning; spring drought is obviously regional, increasing by degrees from the south to north, and the high incidence area of spring drought at different levels mainly concentrated on Chaoyang Prefecture. This study analyzed the evolution law of spring drought in northwest Liaoning, which can provide a reference for the relevant departments to make countermeasures to drought in this area. The main innovation of this article is the proposition of the readjusted Z index.

Key words: spring drought, Z-Index adjustment, evolution rule, spatial and temporal characteristics, north west Liaoning

中图分类号: 

  • S166