基于环境库兹涅茨模型对铜川市近几年经济与环境特征分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在总结国内外学者对环境库兹涅茨曲线模型研究的基础上,以铜川市2001-2013年12 a的人均GDP与环境污染数据为研究对象,构建了环境库兹涅茨模型,并用SPSS在对其进行回归分析的基础上选取最优环境库兹涅茨模型,并绘制了环境库兹涅茨特征曲线。研究结果表明:经济增长不会自动解决或者改善环境问题,经济增长只是改善环境质量的必要条件,而非充分条件;铜川市人均GDP与环境污染之际均未呈现倒"U"型曲线特征;工业废水排放量和工业COD排放量之间与人均GDP之间均呈现平滑的单调"同步"增长趋势;工业废气排放量、工业SO₂排放量、工业烟尘排放量和工业固体废物产生量与人均GDP之间均呈现倒"U"型左半部分特征,有望达到拐点;工业氨氮排放量与人均GDP之间均呈现正"N"型, 2006年前呈上升趋势, 2006年以后至2012年期间,出现下降,近两年又开始增长,而且增长迅速。该研究对铜川市经济与环境特征分析,不仅定量揭示出其经济增长与环境污染程度之问的关系,而且剖析了经济增长与环境质量之间的变化规律,为铜川市环境与经济协调发展提供了决策参考和管理需求,为全面实施"生态休闲城市"的建设确立了科学依据。

关键词: 铜川市, 环境库兹涅茨曲线, 经济增长, 环境污染

Abstract: Based on researches on the model of environmental Kuznets curve conducted by domestic and foreign scholars, per capita GDP and environmental pollution data of Tongchuan City, Shaanxi Province, China during 2001-2013 as main research object, the model of environmental Kuznets curve was established, and the regression analysis were performed with SPSS. On that basis, this paper collected the optimal environmental Kuznets curve models of suitable for the per capita GDP and pollution characteristics about Tongchuan during, and environmental Kuznets curve was produced, and analyzed them. The results show that environmental improvements will not happen automatically with economic growth. The economic growth is a necessary and not a sufficient condition for environmental improvements. The data between per capita GDP and pollution characteristics for Tongchuan did not produce an inverted-U curve. The per capita GDP grow synchronously with industrial wastewater discharge and industrial COD emission. It presented the left of inverted-U curve between the industrial emissions of NH3-N, waste gas, SO₂, smoke and solid waste produced volume and per capita GDP, and promising reaching the inflection point. There is still a great environmental pressure in Tongchuan. With the efforts from all the respects, the environmental and economic development could progress in coordination. The discusses on economic and environment in Tongchuan will be helpful to elaborate the quantitative relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution, and to analyze the changing regularity between the economic growth and environmental quality. Moreover, it provides policy-making reference and management measures for coordinated development of environment and economy in Tongchuan, also it sets up scientific foundation for the comprehensive implementation of "Ecological and Leisure City".

Key words: TongChuan City, environmental Kuznets curve, economic growth, environmental pollution

中图分类号:

王陆军, 范拴喜, 白慧莉. 基于环境库兹涅茨模型对铜川市近几年经济与环境特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2015, 38(5): 1031-1039.

WANG Lu-jun, FAN Shuan-xi, BAI Hui-li. Characteristics of economic and environment in Tongchuan City based on environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)model[J]. , 2015, 38(5): 1031-1039.

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