关键词: 河北省； , 气温变化； , 增温幅度； , 突变时间； , 区域差异

Abstract: In recent decades，continuous attention to global warming has been paid by researchers of all over the world. The temperature in China rose significantly，and also the rising trend had regional and seasonal differences，except that a few special areas showed cooling trend. Hebei Province locates in North China area with varied landforms，and the terrain in the northwest is higher than the southeast. The temperature rose significantly in Hebei Province，which responded strongly to global warming. This paper analyzed the regional and seasonal features of temperature variation trend and the time of abrupt temperature change in Hebei province in recent 50 years. On the basis of this analysis，the paper gave a discussion about the effect of CO₂ emission，AO （Arctic Oscillation） and other factors on the temperature change features in Hebei，this would offer a certain reference for further study of long-term temperature change in Hebei province. The data used in this paper include monthly temperature records that collected at 72 typical meteorological stations in Hebei Province，CO₂ emission in China and AO indices. Monthly temperature records in Hebei province were derived from Hebei Province Bureau，CO₂ emission in China and the AO indices originated from World Meteorological Organization and Climate Prediction Center of NOAA （National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration），respectively. The time span of CO₂ emission data is 1961-2007，the others are all from 1961 to 2010. Firstly，the paper judged the time series of temperature whether had rising trend or declining trend existed or not by using the means of Mann-Kendall trend analysis，then calculating the change value by the means of Sen’s slope estimates if the temperature changed significantly. The jump time of temperature change was detected by Mann-Kendall jump test，Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics and moving t-test，and determined the accurate jump time of temperature change combined with curves of 5-year moving average and accumulative anomaly. Besides，one-way ANOVA was used to analyze the regional differences of temperature change of Hebei province. And the relationships between temperature change and influencing factors that include CO₂ emission，AO indices，latitude，longitude，altitude were investigated by using correlation analysis and regression analysis. One-way ANOVA，correlation analysis and regression analysis were carried out with SPSS for Windows 17.0，and α=0.05 was taken for the significant level. The results showed as follows：（1） the annual average variation trend of temperature was 0.30 ℃/10 a，and the sequence of seasonal warming magnitude was as follows： winter＞spring＞autumn＞summer； the warming trend in winter was significantly higher than the other seasons； the warming magnitude of the Bashang plateau and the basin of Northwest Hebei mountains were much higher than other regions. （2） The jump time of temperature change in Hebei concentrated in 1986-1994； Abrupt Temperature Change in winter and spring were significantly； and the jump time of temperature change in north was earlier than south in Hebei. （3） Continuous increase of CO₂ emission and enhanced Arctic Oscillation before 1995 are the main causes of recent 50 years warming in Hebei； temperature increased distinctly in the area of high latitude，high longitude，high altitude，basin，no forest and wetland，these factors caused different responses of climate change to AO.

Key words: Hebei Province； , temperature variation； , warming magnitude； , jump time of temperature change； , regional differences