克拉玛依夏秋季地面火箭增水作业效果的区域回归分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.04.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1990—2017年克拉玛依市克拉玛依区气象站、百口泉气象站及1994—2017年石化场气象站6—9月月降水资料,采用统计学的区域回归分析法,将百口泉气象站作为对比站点,克拉玛依区气象站和石化场气象站作为目标站点,对克拉玛依在2015—2017年夏秋季开展的地面火箭人工增水作业效果进行统计分析。结果表明：（1）距作业点约9 km的石化场气象站作业效果好于距作业点约4 km的克拉玛依区气象站,说明作业效果较好的区域应位于距作业点适当的距离处;（2） 2016年7月和2015年7月各作业了13次和9次,作业次数多的相对作业效果好些,作业效果与月作业次数成正相关;（3）每次作业火箭弹数量5—7枚相对作业效果好些。因此,地面增水作业效果好的位置应位于作业点下风方一定的距离处。每次人工增水作业的火箭弹用量应适当,作业量太大会造成减少降水,作业量太少可能又达不到催化效果。通过对克拉玛依市近年来开展的夏秋季地面火箭人工增水作业效果进行分析讨论,初步得出了地面火箭人工增水作业效果与作业方法之间的关系,为更好地科学设计实施地面火箭人工增水作业提供了参考依据。

关键词: 人工增水, 区域回归, 效果分析, 克拉玛依

Abstract:

Via an analysis of the effect of rainfall enhancement by rocket seeding during summer and autumn in Karamay City, Xinjiang, China in recent years, this paper provides distribution characteristics of the distance between the operation effect and the operation point and a relationship between the operation effect and the rocket projectile quantity, so as to provide a scientific basis for better artificial rainfall operation on the ground in the future. Using precipitation data from the Karamay and Baikouquan Weather Stations from June to September in the period of 1990—2017 and from the Shihuachang Weather Station from June to September in the period of 1994—2017, the effect of rainfall enhancement by rocket seeding during summer and autumn in Karamay in the period of 2015—2017 was analyzed using a regression analysis method with the Baikouquan Weather Station as the comparison site and the Karamay and Shihuachang Weather Stations as the target sites. The effect at the Shihuachang Weather Station, approximately 9 km from the operation site, was better than that at the Karamay Weather Station, approximately 4 km from the operation site. This indicates that the rainfall enhancement effect is smaller at areas too close or too far from the operation point. More operation times in one month improves the rainfall enhancement effect, with 5-7 rocket projectiles per operation improving the rainfall enhancement effect. Therefore, good effects of rainfall enhancement by rocket seeding are likely located a certain distance downwind of the operation point and the number of rocket projectiles per operation needs to be appropriate: too many projectiles may cause rain reduction, while too few may degrade the catalytic effect. The operation of rainfall enhancement on the ground, especially the operation of rainfall enhancement for convective clouds on the ground, needs to be combined with weather radar echo data to determine the operation object index to implement rainfall enhancement more scientifically and reasonably. Even though this paper analyzes the effect of rainfall enhancement by rocket seeding during summer and autumn, there is a limited number of samples and these effects need to be further analyzed and studied in the future. In particular, it is necessary to include weather radar echo data to conduct further research and analyses to obtain the macro and micro physical changes of clouds and precipitation before and after the operation of rainfall enhancement on the ground and to conduct physical or statistical assessments of the operation effect to further enhance the credibility of assessments of this effect.

Key words: rainfall enhancement, regional regression, effect analysis, Karamay

李斌,郑博华,兰文杰,杨琳,窦春苓. 克拉玛依夏秋季地面火箭增水作业效果的区域回归分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(4): 953-961.

LI Bin,ZHENG Bohua,LAN Wenjie,YANG Lin,DOU Chunling. Regression analysis of the rainfall enhancement effect by rocket seeding at summer and autumn in Karamay[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(4): 953-961.

图/表 4

图1

图2

图3

表1

区域历史回归试验分析目标站点增水效果统计表"

作业月	2015-06	2015-07	2015-08	2016-06	2016-07	2016-08	2017-06	2017-08	2017-09	平均
作业月	克石	克石	克石	克石	克石	克石	克石	克石	克石	克石
作业量/次	3枚/1	26枚/9	8枚/3	21枚/3	163枚/13	11枚/2	21枚/2	4枚/1	24枚/3	-
$∆ y / mm$	-12.8 -6.5	6.3 9.5	-3.8 -2.8	-1.6 19.5	8.1 34.6	2.5 4.8	-11.9 -9.6	-8.5 -7.8	-12.6 -7.5	-3.8 3.8
增水率/%	-85.3 -69.9	31.2 79.8	-52.1 -53.8	-3.9 89.0	31.5 237	11.7 38.4	-41.5 -59.6	-55.6 -82.1	-59.2 -60.0	- -
$t 值$	-2.146 -1.143	0.471 0.808	-0.779 -0.645	-0.085 1.063	0.516 1.996	0.191 0.434	-0.916 -1.075	-1.087 -1.522	-1.316 -1.000	- -
显著性 $α$	负负	<0.25 ≈0.25	负负	负 ≈0.15	<0.15 0.025	<0.25 <0.25	负负	负负	负负	- -

表1

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