西藏气候基准值更新的气候响应与业务影响

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.423

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (5): 907-916.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.423 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025423

西藏气候基准值更新的气候响应与业务影响

次旺¹(), 杜军¹, 扎西顿珠², 陈鲜艳³(), 肖卓靖¹, 平措桑旦⁴, 刘赛⁵

¹ 西藏自治区气候中心，西藏拉萨 850000
² 西藏自治区人影中心，西藏拉萨 850000
³ 中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081
⁴ 西藏高原大气环境科学研究所，西藏拉萨 850000
⁵ 西藏自治区气象灾害防御技术中心，西藏拉萨 850000

收稿日期:2025-07-17 修回日期:2025-08-19 出版日期:2026-05-25 发布日期:2026-05-25
通讯作者: 陈鲜艳（1975-），女，硕士研究生，研究员，主要从事极端旱涝监测及重大工程气候服务. E-mail: chenxy@cma.gov.cn
作者简介:次旺（1991-），男，本科，工程师，主要从事气候监测与评估. E-mail: Tcc_ciwang@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(U23A2006);西藏自治区科技计划项目揭榜挂帅专项(XZ202303ZY0002G);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J071)

Climate response and operational impact of updated climatological normals in Xizang

CI Wang¹(), DU Jun¹, ZHAXI Dunzhu², CHEN Xianyan³(), XIAO Zhuojing¹, PINGCUO Sangdan⁴, LIU Sai⁵

¹ Xizang Climate Centre, Lhasa 850000, Xizang, China
² Xizang Meteorological Weather Modification Center, Lhasa 850000, Xizang, China
³ National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
⁴ Xizang Institute of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Science Research, Lhasa 850000, Xizang, China
⁵ Xizang Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center, Lhasa 850000, Xizang, China

Received:2025-07-17 Revised:2025-08-19 Published:2026-05-25 Online:2026-05-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为量化更新气候基准值对西藏气候特征及气候评估业务的影响，利用西藏38个国家气象观测站1981—2023年的资料，分析了更新1981—2010年与1991—2020年新旧气候基准值对气候变化和业务的影响。结果表明：（1）新气候基准值下西藏所表征的气候较旧气候基准值更暖湿，年平均气温偏高0.3 ℃、年平均降水量偏多2.0%；西部、北部和东北部地区年平均气温增温幅度较大，年平均降水量空间变化分布不均。（2）更新气候基准值对暖冬事件、极端高（低）温发生概率等气候业务产生较大影响，在新气候基准值下西藏近43 a里区域暖冬年从18 a减少到9 a。（3）基于新气候基准值的年平均气温（显著）偏高年从16 a减少至9 a，而（显著）偏低年从6 a增加至12 a，平均气温评价等级由偏高年向偏低年方向调整；极端高温季减少，低温年（季）增多。（4）新气候基准值下春夏季偏多年减少，而秋季偏多年在增加；极端强降水秋季发生概率增多，春夏季在减少。上述暖冬年减少、极端低温事件概率“增加”等现象，主要归因于气候基准值变暖后相应统计阈值的抬升，是一种“统计重构效应”，并非西藏实际气候变冷或极端寒冷事件真实增多。

关键词: 气候基准值更新, 气候评估体系, 极端气候事件, 西藏

Abstract:

To understand the impact of updating climatological normals on climate characteristics and operational assessments in Xizang of China, Based on the data of 38 national meteorological stations in Xizang from 1981 to 2023, the effects of updating the old and new climatological normals values from 1981 to 2010 and from 1991 to 2020 on climate change and business were analyzed. The results reveal the following: (1) Under the new climatological normals, the climate in Xizang is warmer and wetter than under the previous normals, with the annual mean temperature increasing by 0.3 ℃ and annual precipitation increasing by 2.0%. Annual mean temperature increases are more pronounced in the western, northern, and northeastern regions, while annual mean precipitation shows uneven spatial distribution. (2) Updating climatological normals significantly affects climate-related operations, such as the identification of warm winter events and the probability of extreme high and low temperatures. Under the new normals, the number of regional warm winter years in Xizang over the past 43 years decreased from 18 years to 9 years. (3) Based on the new climatological normals, the number of (significantly) high annual mean temperature years decreased from 16 years to 9 years, whereas the number of (significantly) low annual mean temperature years increased from 6 years to 12 years, resulting in a shift in the average temperature evaluation from high to low categories. The frequency of extreme high-temperature seasons decreases, whereas low-temperature years (seasons) increase. (4) The frequency of above-normal spring and summer years decreases, whereas above-normal autumn years increase. Meanwhile, the likelihood of extreme heavy precipitation increases in autumn but decreases in spring and summer. The observed changes, such as the reduction in warm winter years and the apparent increase in the probability of extreme low-temperature events, are primarily attributable to elevated statistical thresholds associated with warmer climatological normals. This reflects a statistical reconstruction effect rather than an actual cooling trend or a real increase in extreme cold events in Xizang.

Key words: updated climatological normals, climate assessment system, extreme climate events, Xizang

次旺, 杜军, 扎西顿珠, 陈鲜艳, 肖卓靖, 平措桑旦, 刘赛. 西藏气候基准值更新的气候响应与业务影响[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(5): 907-916.

CI Wang, DU Jun, ZHAXI Dunzhu, CHEN Xianyan, XIAO Zhuojing, PINGCUO Sangdan, LIU Sai. Climate response and operational impact of updated climatological normals in Xizang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(5): 907-916.

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气温距平（△T）/℃	气温等级	降水距平百分率（△R）/%	降水等级
△T≥2.0	异常偏高	△R≥80	异常偏多
1.0≤△T<2.0	显著偏高	50≤△R<80	显著偏多
0.5≤△T<1.0	偏高	25≤△R<50	偏多
-0.5<△T<0.5	正常	-25<△R<25	正常
-1.0<△T≤-0.5	偏低	-50<△R≤-25	偏少
-2.0<△T≤-1.0	显著偏低	-80<△R≤-50	显著偏少
△T≤-2.0	异常偏低	△R≤-80	异常偏少

年份	是否为区域暖冬年
年份	旧气候基准值	新气候基准值
1988	√	×
1999	√	×
2001	√	√
2002	√	×
2005	√	√
2006	√	√
2007	√	×
2008	√	×
2009	√	√
2010	√	×
2012	√	×
2013	√	×
2014	√	×
2016	√	√
2017	√	√
2018	√	√
2021	√	√
2023	√	√

时段	平均气温		降水量
时段	极高	极低	极强	极弱
年	0.0	4.7	0.0	4.7
春季	-4.7	4.7	-2.3	0.0
夏季	-2.3	0.0	-2.3	2.3
秋季	0.0	4.7	2.3	0.0
冬季	-2.3	2.3	0.0	0.0

西藏气候基准值更新的气候响应与业务影响

Climate response and operational impact of updated climatological normals in Xizang

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