陕北黄土高原红枣种植区水热资源变化及未来趋势预测
收稿日期: 2019-03-09
修回日期: 2020-05-02
网络出版日期: 2021-03-09
基金资助
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201319)
Change and trend prediction of water and heat resource of jujube planting zones in the hilly area of the Loess Plateau in the northern Shaanxi
Received date: 2019-03-09
Revised date: 2020-05-02
Online published: 2021-03-09
为了揭示陕北黄土高原红枣种植区水热资源变化特征,给当地红枣产业适应气候变化提供科学依据,利用陕北黄土高原红枣种植区8个气象站1971—2019年的气温、降水资料,及中等（RCP4.5）和高等（RCP8.5）排放气候情景下2021—2050年的气候变化预估数据,采用线性倾向估计、M-K检验、Morlet小波分析方法对气温、降水变化特征进行分析。结果显示：近49 a,红枣种植区年和生长季平均气温呈显著上升趋势,分别在1991年和1993年发生突变,存在44 a的周期变化。年和生长季降水量呈不显著增加趋势,存在31 a左右的周期变化,未发生突变。2021—2050年,RCP4.5、RCP8.5两种情景模式下,年和生长季平均气温呈上升趋势,RCP8.5排放情景下升温更显著,年平均气温在2027年发生了突变。两种排放情景下,年和生长季平均气温存在31 a左右的周期变化。年和生长季降水量在RCP4.5排放情景下呈不显著减少趋势,在RCP8.5排放情景下呈不显著增加趋势;降水量没有发生突变现象。RCP4.5情景下,年和生长季降水存在23~31 a周期变化;RCP8.5情景下存在7 a的变化周期。陕北红枣种植区应积极适应气候变化,调整种植布局,选择适宜的红枣品种,促进陕北红枣产业可持续健康发展。
张维敏,王景红,刘璐,张勇 . 陕北黄土高原红枣种植区水热资源变化及未来趋势预测[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021 , 44(1) : 73 -79 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.01.08
To reveal the change characteristics of water and heat resources in the jujube planting area of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi and to provide a scientific basis for the local jujube industry to adapt to climate change, on the basis of the temperature and precipitation data from eight weather stations from 1971 to 2019 in the jujube cultivation area of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenario data from 2021 to 2050, the climatic characteristics of temperature and precipitation were analyzed using methods of linear trend estimates, the M-K test, and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results show that the annual average temperature and average temperature of the jujube growth season showed a significantly increasing trend from 1971 to 2019 and emerging abrupt changes in 1991 and 1993, respectively. The monthly average temperature showed an increasing trend. The annual average temperature and average temperature of the jujube growth season displayed a quasi-periodic of 44 a. The annual precipitation and precipitation during the jujube growth season also showed an insignificantly increasing trend and did not reveal abrupt changes and significant fluctuations over the period of 31 a. The annual average temperature and average temperature of the jujube growth season showed an increasing trend under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios from 2021 to 2050. The temperature had a change cycle of 31 a. The annual precipitation and precipitation of the jujube growth season showed a decreasing trend under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and an increasing trend under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. The precipitation did not reveal abrupt changes. The annual precipitation and precipitation during the jujube growth season had a change cycle of 23-31 a under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and had a change cycle of 7 a under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. With the increase of heat resources in the red jujube planting area in northern Shaanxi, the suitable planting area for jujube may expand northward. The phenological period of the red jujube will change. An elevated temperature is conducive to the safe overwintering of pests and diseases. Precipitation may show an increasing trend that can alleviate the drought problem, but increased precipitation in the mature period will also lead to an increased risk of the jujube fruit cracking. There is a need to fully tap the potential of climate resources, properly adjust the layout and scale of the jujube industry, and select jujube varieties with a strong resistance to fruit cracking to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the northern Shaanxi jujube industry.
| [1] | 汪星, 朱德兰, 杨荣慧, 等. 陕北山地红枣抗裂性研究[J]. 果树学报, 2011,2(1):82-85. |
| [1] | [ Wang Xing, Zhu Delan, Yang Ronghui, et al. Study on crack resistance of northern Shaanxi jujube on mountain land[J]. Journal of Fruit Science, 2011,2(1):82-85. ] |
| [2] | 李新岗, 同金霞, 王鸿哲, 等. 陕北地区中阳木枣生态适应性研究[J]. 西北林学院学报, 2000,15(2):13-18. |
| [2] | [ Li Xingang, Tong Jinxia, Wang Hongzhe, et al. Ecological adaptability of Ziziphus jujuba Mill. in north Shaanxi[J]. Journal of Northwest Forestry University, 2000,15(2):13-18. ] |
| [3] | 李新岗. 陕北枣区的地位研究[J]. 西北林学院学报, 2003,18(1):80-83. |
| [3] | [ Li Xingang. Research on status of jujube region in north Shaanxi[J]. Journal of Northwest Forestry University, 2003,18(1):80-83. ] |
| [4] | 杨晓光, 李勇, 代姝玮, 等. 气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化: IX. 中国农业气候资源时空变化特征[J]. 应用生态学报, 2011,22(12):3177-3188. |
| [4] | [ Yang Xiaoguang, Li Yong, Dai Shuwei, et al. Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change: Ⅸ. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of China agricultural climate resources[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2011,22(12):3177-3188. ] |
| [5] | 孙倩倩, 刘晶淼. 基于聚类分析的中国东北地区气温和降水时空变化特征[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2014,30(3):59-65. |
| [5] | [ Sun Qianqian, Liu Jingmiao. Temporal-spatial change of temperature and precipitation based on CAST in northeast China[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2014,30(3):59-65. ] |
| [6] | 王明昌, 刘锬, 江源, 等. 中国北方中部地区近五十年气温和降水的变化趋势[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015,51(6):631-635. |
| [6] | [ Wang Mingchang, Liu Tan, Jiang Yuan, et al. Temperature and precipitation changes in north central China in the last 50 years[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science), 2015,51(6):631-635. ] |
| [7] | 李振朝, 韦志刚, 文军, 等. 近50年黄土高原气候变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2008,22(3):57-62. |
| [7] | [ Li Zhenchao, Wei Zhigang, Wen Jun, et al. Analyses on climate variation characteristics over the Loess Plateau in recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2008,22(3):57-62. ] |
| [8] | 李志, 赵西宁. 1961—2009年黄土高原气象要素的时空变化分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013,28(2):287-299. |
| [8] | [ Li Zhi, Zhao Xining. Spatiotemporal analysis of meteorological elements on the Loess Plateau during 1961—2009[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013,28(2):287-299. ] |
| [9] | 顾朝军, 穆兴民, 高鹏, 等. 1961—2014年黄土高原地区降水和气温时间变化特征研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2017,31(3):136-143. |
| [9] | [ Gu ChaoJun, Mu Xingmin, Gao Peng, et al. Characteristics of temporal variation in precipitation and temperature in the Loess Plateau from 1961 to 2014[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2017,31(3):136-143. ] |
| [10] | 刘兆飞, 王蕊, 姚治君. 蒙古高原气温与降水变化特征及CMIP5气候模式评估[J]. 资源科学, 2016,38(5):956-969. |
| [10] | [ Liu Zhaofei, Wang Rui, Yao Zhijun. Air temperature and precipitation over the Mongolian Plateau and assessment of CMIP5 climate models[J]. Resources Science, 2016,38(5):956-969. ] |
| [11] | 卢晓菲, 任传友, 王艳华, 等. 三个全球气候模式对中国气温季节变化模拟能力的空间差异特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018,41(5):972-983. |
| [11] | [ Lu Xiaofei, Ren Chuanyou, Wang Yanhua, et al. Spatial difference characteristics on simulation capability of seasonal variation of air temperature simulated by three global climate models in China[J]. Arid land Geography, 2018,41(5):972-983. |
| [12] | 王静, 刘海隆, 王玲. 气候变化背景下玛纳斯河流域绿洲适宜规模研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2019,42(1):113-120. |
| [12] | [ Wang Jing, Liu Hailong, Wang Ling. Suitable oasis scale in Manas River Basin in the context of climate change[J]. Arid land Geography, 2019,42(1):113-120. ] |
| [13] | 徐敏, 高苹, 徐经纬, 等. 江苏省玉米气候资源的变化特征与未来气候情景预估[J]. 江苏农业科学, 2014,42(10):95-100. |
| [13] | [ Xu Min, Gao Ping, Xu Jingwei, et al. Variation characteristics and future climate scenario prediction of maize climate resources in Jiangsu[J]. Journal of Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences, 2014,42(10):95-100. ] |
| [14] | 刘璐, 王景红, 张维敏, 等. 1971—2010年陕北红枣种植区气候变化特征及其对物候期的影响[J]. 干旱气象, 2016,34(5):841-846. |
| [14] | [ Liu Lu, Wang Jinghong, Zhang Weimin, et al. Climatic change characteristics and its impaction on phenophase of jujube in northern Shaanxi during 1971—2010[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2016,34(5):841-846. ] |
| [15] | 李艳莉, 王景红, 梁轶. 气候变化背景下黄土高原丘陵区红枣主要气象灾害变化特征分析[J]. 中国农学通报, 2016,32(5):118-124. |
| [15] | [ Li Yanli, Wang Jinghong, Liang Yi. Variation characteristics of main meteorological disasters of jujube in the hilly Loess Plateau under climate change[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2016,32(5):118-124. ] |
| [16] | 张维敏, 王景红. 近40年黄土高原丘陵红枣种植区气温变化特征及其影响分析[J]. 中国农学通报, 2016,32(10):139-144. |
| [16] | [ Zhang Weimin, Wang Jinghong. Variation characteristics of air temperature and its impact on jujube in hilly region of the Loess Plateau in recent 40 years[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2016,32(10):139-144. ] |
| [17] | 梁轶, 王景红, 屈振江, 等. 黄土高原丘陵区中阳木枣精细化气候适宜性区划[J]. 中国农学通报, 2016,32(10):132-138. |
| [17] | [ Liang Yi, Wang Jinghong, Qu Zhenjiang, et al. Climate suitability regionalization for Zhongyang jujube in the hilly area of Loess Plateau[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2016,32(10):132-138. ] |
| [18] | 梁轶, 张勇, 王景红, 等. 气候变化对黄土高原丘陵区制干红枣适生区影响预估[J]. 西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版), 2017,45(1):90-98. |
| [18] | [ Liang Yi, Zhang Yong, Wang Jinghong, et al. Potential impacts of climate change on suitable area of dried jujube in hilly area of the Loess Plateau[J]. Journal of Northwest A & F University (Natural Science Edition), 2017,45(1):90-98. ] |
| [19] | 李红英, 高振荣, 王胜, 等. 近60 a河西走廊极端气温的变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2015,38(1):1-9. |
| [19] | [ Li Hongying, Gao Zhenrong, Wang Sheng, et al. Extreme temperature variation of Hexi Corridor in recent 60 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2015,38(1):1-9. ] |
| [20] | 薛海丽, 张钦, 唐海萍. 近60 a内蒙古不同草原类型区极端气温和干旱时间特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018,41(4):701-711. |
| [20] | [ Xue Haili, Zhang Xin, Tang Haiping. Extreme temperature and drought events in four different grassland areas of Inner Mongoliain in recent 60 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2018,41(4):701-711. ] |
| [21] | 秦榕, 李林超, 杨霰, 等. 新疆地区蒸发皿蒸发量变化及基于小波的周期分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018,41(5):90-98. |
| [21] | [ Qin Rong, Li Linchao, Yang Xian, et al. Change of pan evaporation in Xinjiang and its periods based on wavelet analysis[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2018,41(5):90-98. ] |
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
