为分析不同因素对泥石流灾害危险性的影响程度，基于对舟曲南屿沟泥石流灾害影响因素调查结果总结和分析，利用灰色理论分析了泥石流灾害危险性与影响因素间关联程度，并建立了其预判模型。结果表明：沟岸坡度、沟道堵塞程度及冲淤变幅，沟道平均纵坡降和长度，沟道内植被覆盖率、流域面积及人口密度，松散固体物源量和灾害点密度等因素的影响程度较接近；相同区域内不同沟道泥石流灾害危险性程度受沟岸坡度、沟道堵塞程度、冲淤变幅、沟道平均纵坡降及长度等因素影响显著；基于自然和人为因素建立了泥石流灾害易发程度预估模型，其能够为区域内泥流灾害防治工作部署提供依据。
This paper focused on analyzing the vulnerability
degree on debris flow hazards, which is affected by
various environmental factors. The correlation
degree between different influencing factors and debris flow disaster
susceptibility were studied using grey correlation analysis based on the
analysis and summary of the field survey results on influencing factors for
debris flow hazards in different debris flow gullies of Nanyu in Zhouqu County, Gansu
Province, China which included the “August
8” large debris flow disaster instance. The
results show that the susceptibility of debris flow disaster is relatively
similar for the factors such as bank slope, channel
blockage, and scouring range, the
slope gradient and length of channel, vegetation, drainage
area, and
population density, solid matter source and geological hazards
points density. For the different gullies in the same area, the
hazard level of the debris flow disaster is impacted significantly by the bank
slope, the
channel blockage, the scouring range, the
slope gradient, and the channel length. The
model can predict the vulnerability of debris flow and provide important
information in the hazard prevention and control.
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