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2023 , Vol. 46 >Issue 6: 911 - 921

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.446

生态与环境

基于RSEI和ANN-CA-Markov模型的伊宁市生态环境质量动态监测及预测研究

  • 陈勉为 ,
  • 冯丹 ,
  • 张仕凯 ,
  • 江雨 ,
  • 张新兰
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  • 1.伊犁师范大学化学与环境科学学院，新疆 伊宁 835000
    2.伊犁师范大学污染物化学与环境治理重点实验室，新疆 伊宁 835000
陈勉为（1995-），男，讲师，主要从事生态环境遥感监测技术等方面的研究. E-mail: mianweichen@163.com

收稿日期: 2022-09-07

  修回日期: 2022-10-18

  网络出版日期: 2023-07-24

基金资助

伊犁师范大学校级一般项目(2022YSYB018);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2021D01C461)

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Dynamic monitoring and prediction of eco-environmental quality in Yining City based on RSEI and ANN-CA-Markov model

  • Mianwei CHEN ,
  • Dan FENG ,
  • Shikai ZHANG ,
  • Yu JIANG ,
  • Xinlan ZHANG
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  • 1. School of Chemistry and Environmental Science, Yili Normal University, Yining 835000, Xinjiang, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Pollutant Chemistry and Environmental Treatment, Yili Normal University, Yining 835000, Xinjiang, China

Received date: 2022-09-07

  Revised date: 2022-10-18

  Online published: 2023-07-24

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摘要

伊宁市位于中国新疆西北边陲伊犁河谷内，土地肥沃，水资源和生物资源丰富，具有发展农、林、牧业的优越自然条件，但由于城市化进程过快，导致生态遭受破坏，生态环境质量不断下降，因此依托遥感生态指数（Remote-sensing ecological index，RSEI）及ANN-CA-Markov模型，科学、合理地利用Landsat TM5/OLI-TIRS8遥感数据对开展伊宁市2006—2021年生态环境动态评价及预测具有重要意义。结果表明：（1） 绿度和湿度对伊宁市生态水平具有正面影响，干度和热度对伊宁市生态水平具有负面影响，影响伊宁市生态环境质量的主要因素依次为绿度、热度、干度、湿度，符合伊犁河谷地区所表现出来的生态状况。（2） 伊宁市RSEI平均值为0.451，总体处于中等水平，生态环境质量变化呈现两极逐渐缩小的趋势，但RSEI指标中等区域及较差区域的面积正在逐年增大，总体生态环境呈现稳中向差的发展趋势。（3） 预计2026年和2031年伊宁市北坡地区生态得到一定程度改善，结合《新疆伊宁市城市2018—2035年总体规划》，城区在未来生态环境质量依旧保持在中等水平，城市将继续向外扩张，可耕地面积将继续减少。

关键词： 遥感生态指数; Landsat卫星; 生态环境质量预测; ANN-CA-Markov模型; 伊宁市

本文引用格式

陈勉为 , 冯丹 , 张仕凯 , 江雨 , 张新兰 . 基于RSEI和ANN-CA-Markov模型的伊宁市生态环境质量动态监测及预测研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023 , 46(6) : 911 -921 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.446

Abstract

Yining City, located at the northwest border of Xinjiang in the Ili River Valley, China, has fertile land, abundant water and biological resources, and favorable natural conditions for the development of agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry. However, due to the rapid urbanization process, the ecology has been damaged, and the quality of the ecological environment has declined. Therefore, it is of great significance to scientifically and reasonably utilize Landsat TM5/OLI-TIRS8 remote sensing data to conduct a dynamic evaluation and prediction of the ecological environment in Yining City from 2006 to 2021 based on the remote-sensing ecological index (RSEI) and ANN-CA-Markov model. The results show that: (1) Greenness and humidity have a positive impact on the ecological level of Yining City, while dryness and heat have a negative impact. The main factors affecting the ecological environment quality of Yining City are, in order, greenness, heat, dryness, and humidity, which are consistent with the ecological conditions exhibited in the Ili River Valley region. (2) The average RSEI indicator of Yining City is 0.451, which is at a moderate level overall. The ecological environment quality change shows a trend of gradually narrowing extremes, but the areas with medium and poor RSEI indices are increasing year by year, and the overall ecological environment presents a stable-to-worse development trend. (3) It is predicted that by 2026 and 2031, the ecological environment in the northern slope region of Yining City will improve to a certain extent. In combination with the overall urban planning of Yining City, Xinjiang, from 2018 to 2035, the ecological environment quality in the urban area will still remain at a medium level in the future, and the city will continue to expand outward, resulting in a continuous reduction in arable land area.

Key words： RSEI; Landsat; eco-environmental quality prediction; ANN-CA-Markov model; Yining City

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