中国绿洲喜温作物气候生长期对全球变暖停滞响应的时空差异

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.04.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于中国绿洲喜温作物分布区67个地面气象站1960—2016年逐日平均气温数据,运用线性趋势法、反距离加权（IDW）、Morlet小波分析法、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,分析了中国绿洲喜温作物气候生长期生长初、终日及生长期的时空变化对全球变暖停滞（globe warming hiatus）的响应。结果表明：1998—2012年中国绿洲喜温作物气候生长期生长初、终日及生长期变化倾向率分别为：-2.15 d·（10 a）^–1、2.76 d·（10 a）^–1、4.91 d·（10 a）^–1,与1960—2016年和1960—1998年相比呈现出初日提前、终日推迟、生长期延长的态势,没有出现对全球变暖停滞的响应;空间变化方面,仅有超过22%的站点有对全球变暖停滞的响应,整体响应不显著;但各绿洲对全球变暖停滞的响应却不尽相同,柴达木绿洲喜温作物气候生长期对全球变暖停滞的响应最为显著,其余绿洲则反之,也反映了青藏高原是气候变化的驱动器与放大镜。突变分析显示,研究区喜温作物生长初日、终日及生长期分别在2008年、2001年、2006年发生突变,突变年份多集中于变暖停滞期,之后的变化趋势显示对全球变暖停滞没有响应。Morlet小波分析表明其周期存在2.4~3.8 a的优势短周期,与2~4 a大气环流和厄尔尼诺事件2~7 a的周期相吻合,表明喜温作物气候生长期主要受大气环流与厄尔尼诺活动的影响。

关键词: 喜温作物, 全球变暖停滞, 时空差异, 中国绿洲

Abstract: The global warming hiatus that occurred between 1998 and 2012 has attracted considerable attention;however,changes in the plant growth periods in response to this hiatus are still unclear. Oases located in China between 32°-44°N and 70°-110°E are characterized by temperate continental climates and fragile ecological environments,which are sensitive to climate change. We considered the daily mean temperature data collected by 67 surface meteorological stations distributed over Chinese oases covered with thermophilic crops between 1960 and 2016. By employing the linear trend,the inverse distance weighted（IDW）,the Morlet wavelet,and the Mann-Kendall methods,we analyzed the response of thermophilic crops（in terms of growth period） to the global warming hiatus. The results showed that the trend rates of the thermophilic crops growth periods in the Chinese oases between 1998 and 2012 were -2.15 d·（10 a）^-1,2.76 d·（10 a） ^-1,and 4.91 d·（10 a）^-1,respectively. Compared with 1960-1998,the beginning day of the growth period between 1998 and 2012 occurred earlier,the ending day occurred later,and the duration was longer. No overall responses to the global warming hiatus were observed. In terms of spatial change,the Qaidam Oasis showed the strongest response to the global warming hiatus. Changes in the beginning day,ending day,and duration of the growth period of thermophilic crops occurred in 2008,2001,and 2006,respectively. However,after these changes,the climate growth period of thermophilic crops did not respond anymore to the global warming hiatus. The Morlet wavelet analysis showed that the studied time interval was dominated by short periods（2.4-3.8 a）,which are consistent with those of atmospheric circulation（2-4 a） and El Niño events（2-7 a）. This indicates that the growth period of thermophilic crops was mainly affected by these last two factors. Overall,our findings showed that the growth period of thermophilic crops did not respond to the global warming hiatus. These results provide a scientific basis for understanding regional responses to this global event.

Key words: thermophilic crops, global warming hiatus, space-time difference, oases in China

司文洋, 张明军, 刘普幸. 中国绿洲喜温作物气候生长期对全球变暖停滞响应的时空差异[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(4): 899-908.

SI Wen-yang, ZHANG Ming-jun, LIU Pu-xing. Spatial and temporal response differences to global warming hiatus of the thermophilic crops climate growth period in oases of China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(4): 899-908.

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