贺兰山银川段不同重现期山洪灾害风险与影响区划研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.04.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为评估贺兰山银川段山洪灾害风险程度及其影响,利用高分辨率数字高程模型（DEM）、行政区划、水系和自动气象站历史降水数据,以及居民点、学校、桥梁等社会经济信息资料,采用FloodArea模型模拟与ArcGIS空间叠加统计分析相结合的方法,分析研究了贺兰山银川段不同重现期山洪灾害风险分布特征,及其对人口、土地利用和国内生产总值（GDP）的影响。结果表明：（1）贺兰山银川段10~100 a一遇山洪灾害低、中、高风险区面积分别为109.5~276.3 km²、45.0~231.0 km²、13.4~204.3 km²,同一风险等级的山洪灾害区划面积随着重现期增大呈显著增大趋势。（2）贺兰山10 a和20 a一遇山洪灾害风险区主要位于海拔1 130~1 450 m的山洪沟及其两侧区域,50 a一遇山洪灾害风险区主要集中在山洪沟下游和山前海拔1 130~1 180 m的冲击扇区,100 a一遇山洪灾害风险区覆盖整个山前海拔1 120~1 350 m的区域和冲击扇区。随着重现期增大,贺兰山山洪灾害风险区具有向上游（下游）区域扩展较慢（更快）的显著特征。（3）银川市受贺兰山10 a、20 a、50 a和100 a一遇山洪灾害影响总人口分别为7.30×10⁴人、9.87×10⁴人、1.65×10⁵人和2.39×10⁵人。随着山洪重现期增大,受灾害影响总人口呈显著增加趋势,低、中、高风险区受影响人口增速分别在-12.4%~20.5%、 48.6%~91.8%、163%~300%之间。（4）农田、草地受贺兰山山洪灾害影响最大,二者合计占受影响土地总面积的比例在82.1%~86.9%之间;其次是建设用地和耕地,两者占受影响土地总面积的比例在4.4%~9.1%和1.1%~4.6%之间,是银川市贺兰山山洪灾害防御的重点区域。（5）银川市受贺兰山10 a、20 a、50 a、100 a一遇山洪灾害中、高风险区影响的GDP合计分别为1.12×10⁹元、2.00×10⁹元、4.70×10⁹元、8.74×10⁹元;发生超50 a一遇山洪灾害时,沿山农业和工业产业、基础公共设施等会遭受较大经济损失。

关键词: 山洪灾害, 风险与影响区划, FloodArea模型, ArcGIS, 贺兰山银川段

Abstract: In order to assess the impacts and risks associated with flash flood disasters in the Yinchuan section of the Helan Mountain,Ningxia Province,China,we considered a high-resolution digital elevation model （DEM）,as well as information on the administrative divisions,the distribution of torrents,the historical precipitation data from automatic weather stations,and socioeconomic information （e.g., on residential areas,schools,and bridges）. The risk distribution characteristics of flash flood disasters over the Yinchuan section of the Helan Mountain and their impact on the population,land use,and gross domestic product （GDP） were analyzed and assessed by a FloodArea model simulation and an ArcGIS spatial overlay statistical analysis. The results showed the following：（1） The areas subjected to a low,medium,and high risk of flash flood disasters with a return period of 10-100 a were of 109.5-276.3 km²,45.0-231.0 km²,and 13.4-204.3 km²,respectively; moreover,the zoning areas of flash flood disasters with the same risk level showed a significant increase with the lengthening of the return period. （2） The areas of the Helan Mountain subjected to the risk of flash flood disasters with return periods of 10 a and 20 a were mainly located in correspondence and on the sides of flood ditches （at altitudes of 1 130-1 450 m）; moreover,those subjected to the risk of flash flood disasters with return periods of 50 a were mainly located downstream of the flood ditches and in correspondence of an impact fan along the mountain front （at altitudes of 1 130-1 180 m）. The areas at risk of flash flood disasters with return periods of 100 a were located at altitudes of 1 120-1 350 m and in correspondence of the impact fan along the mountain front. Overall,with the increase of the return period,the zones of the Helan Mountain at risk of flash flood disasters showed a significant slow （fast） expansion toward the upstream （downstream） area. （3） In Yinchuan City,~73 000,98 700,165 300,and 239 000 people will be affected by flash flood disasters with return periods of 10 a,20 a,50 a,and 100 a,respectively. With the increase of the return period of flash flood disasters,the number of people affected by them and living around the Helan Mountain grew significantly （growth rates: -12.4% to 20.5%,48.6% to 91.8%,and 163% to 300% in the low,medium,and high risk areas,respectively）. （4） Farmlands and grasslands were the most affected by flash flood disasters that originated on the Helan Mountain: together,they accounted for 82.1%-86.9% of the total affected area. They were followed by construction and cultivated lands,which accounted for 4.4%-9.1% and 1.1%-4.6% of the total affected area,respectively. These lands are key for the prevention of flash flood disasters （originated on the Helan Mountain） in Yinchuan City. （5） In Yinchuan City,the total GDP was affected by flash flood disasters with return periods of 10 a,20 a,50 a,and 100 a that occurred in medium- and high-risk areas. The GDP losses corresponded to 1.12 billion,2.00 billion,4.70 billion,and 8.74 billion yuan,respectively. In case of flash flood disasters with return periods>50 a,the agricultural/industrial industries,infrastructures,and public facilities located in Yinchuan City （close to the mountain） will suffer great economic losses.

Key words: flash flood disaster, risk and impact zoning, FloodArea model, ArcGIS, Yinchuan section of Helan Mountain

崔洋, 常倬林, 左河疆, 王建英. 贺兰山银川段不同重现期山洪灾害风险与影响区划研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(4): 859-870.

CUI Yang, CHANG Zhuo-lin, ZUO He-jiang, WANG Jian-ying. Risk and impact zoning of different return period flash flood disasters in Yinchuan Section of Helan Mountain[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(4): 859-870.

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