黑河流域气象要素与全球性大气环流特征量的多尺度遥相关分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 黑河流域生态-水文过程集成研究是我国近年来干旱半干旱地区的研究热点，气候变化条件下流域生态-水文过程的响应机制是其中一个重要科学问题。基于1956-2015 年黑河流域气温、湿度、降水观测数据及多个大气环流特征量监测资料，采用小波分析方法研究了流域气象要素与大气环流特征量的周期性及遥相关。结果表明：（1）流域气温与大气环流特征量的遥相关关系最为明显，湿度、降水次之。（2）气温与Niño3.4 SSTA、SOI 的显著遥相关共同周期为12～16 a，与NAO、AO为9～11 a，与WP遥相关周期为5～9 a，与PDO为8～15 a。（3）湿度与NAO遥相关周期为4～5 a，与POL为3～6 a，与WP为9～15 a，与PNA为2～8 a。（4）降水与Niño3.4 SSTA遥相关周期为9～15 a，与NAO为2～4 a，与AO为3～7 a，与POL为11～19 a，与WP为9～14 a。（5）上述各遥相关周期的地域分布、显著时段与时滞特征各有差异。本文研究有助于加深流域气象要素对环流特征量响应机制的认识，为我国干旱半干旱地区内陆河流域严峻的水-生态问题的解决及水资源管理提供依据。

关键词: 黑河流域, 气象要素, 环流特征量, 遥相关

Abstract: Synthetic research of eco-hydrological process in Heihe River Basin(HRB)is a hot spot of research in recent years in arid and semi-arid areas of China. Response of eco-hydraulic processes to climate change is an important scientific issue. Based on the monitoring records of air temperature,humidity and precipitation of HRB from May 1956 to June 2015,together with data of eight global climate indices,periodicities of the above time series and teleconnections between meteorological elements and climate indices were investigated by wavelet analysis. The results show that:(1)The teleconnections between air temperature and climate indices are fine,while the teleconnections between humidity,precipitation and climate indices are comparatively weaker. Significant teleconnections between air temperature and NINO3.4 SSTA,SOI,NAO,AO,WP,PNA,PDO are identified. (2)Teleconnections between air temperature of midstream and downstream of HRB and NINO3.4 SSTA,SOI is on periodicity of 12-16 a;teleconnection between air temperature of upstream and midstream of HRB and NAO is on periodicity of 8-13 a;teleconnection between air temperature of midstream and downstream of HRB and AO is on periodicity of 8-11 a;teleconnection between air temperature and WP is on periodicity of 5-9 a;teleconnection between air temperature of downstream of HRB and PNA is on periodicity of 7-11 a;teleconnection between air temperature of midstream and downstream of HRB and PDO is on periodicity of 11-15 a;while the periodicities of upstream are 2-4 a and 8-14 a.(3)Significant teleconnections between humidity and NAO, POL,WP are identified. Teleconnection between humidity and NAO is on periodicity of 4-5 a;teleconnection between humidity and POL is on periodicity of 3-6 a;teleconnection between humidity of midstream and downstream of HRB and WP is on periodicity of 9-15 a;and humidity delay is about 2-4 a.(4)Significant teleconnections between precipitation and NINO3.4 SSTA,NAO,AO,POL,WP are identified. Teleconnection between precipitation of midstream and downstream of HRB and NINO3.4 SSTA is on periodicity of 9-15 a;teleconnection between precipitation and NAO is on periodicity of 2-4 a;teleconnection between precipitation of upstream of HRB and AO is on periodicity of 3-7 a;teleconnection between precipitation of midstream and downstream of HRB and POL is on periodicity of 11-19 a;while the teleconnection of upstream is on periodicity of 4-6 a;teleconnection between precipitation of midstream of HRB and WP is on periodicity of 9-14 a. This is the first time that systematic analysis of teleconnections between meteorological elements and climate indices at a large basin scale was carried out in China. Findings and methods presented here help understand the response of basin meteorological elements to climate indices,and expand the knowledge and usable toolbox of approaches that can be used by managers and scientists to improve eco-hydraulic processes and water resource planning and operations under future climate uncertainty.

Key words: Heihe River Basin(HRB), meteorological elements, climate indices, teleconnection

中图分类号:

P434⁺.4

祁晓凡, 李文鹏, 李海涛, 刘春华. 黑河流域气象要素与全球性大气环流特征量的多尺度遥相关分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2017, 40(3): 564-572.

QI Xiao-fan, LI Wen-peng, LI Hai-tao, LIU Chun-hua. Multiscale teleconnections between meteorological elements of Heihe River Basin and global climate indices[J]. , 2017, 40(3): 564-572.

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