产业支撑、生态保护与城市可持续发展研究——以乌鲁木齐为例

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 产业是城市经济发展的助推器，生态环境是城市居民生活的重要保障，在保护城市生态环境的前提下注重产业的合理发展，是走可持续发展之路的必然选择。运用生态足迹理论计算了1994-2013年乌鲁木齐市生态人口承载力，该指标代表了城市可持续发展水平，建立与城市产业结构、生态保护的VAR模型。结果表明：乌鲁木齐市人均占有资源量持续扩大，可承载生态人口数量逐年下降；第二产业无论是短期还是长期视角对可承载的生态人口起到抑制作用；第三产业从短期来看对城市可承载的生态人口具有负向影响，但长期视角则呈正向影响；城市水资源量及城市绿化面积对可承载的生态人口呈长期正向影响，但具有滞后效应。最后，对城市产业发展、生态保护改善城市生态环境与城市可持续进步方面提供可借鉴的成果依据。

关键词: 城市可持续发展, 生态足迹, VAR模型, 生态人口承载力

Abstract: In recent years,the balance of normal development of economic society and ecology have been damaged severely because of high energy consumption and extensive development of the economy,which brings serious challenges to sustainable development of cities in Xinjiang,China. In the view of resource-conserving and environmental-friendly society development requirements,keeping the progress of industry,ecological protection and urban sustainable development is the most important mission.Based on the theory of ecological footprint to calculate the ecological population capacity from 1994 to 2013,which stands for sustainable development ability, considering the proportion of GDP of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry as index of industrial structure, taking urban green space area and water resources capacity as index of ecological condition,the paper analyzed the dynamic relationship of the three factors based on the VAR model with Eviews6.0 software. The results showed that the per capita availability was growing,and the ecological population capacity decreased year by year. The secondary industry played an inhibitory effect on the city's ecological population and the tertiary industry had a negative influence to ecological population for short term but positive influence for long term. Additionally, both urban green space area and water resource had negative influence to ecological population for long term,but exist hysteretic effect. According to the analysis results,this paper proposed suggestions for industrial structure,ecological protection and sustainable development of Urumqi City:the government should adjust the focus of the city industry actively,and optimize the internal structure of the industry gradually,at the same time,accelerate the development of modern service industry;Additionally,the government should pay attention to the water efficiency and strengthen urban ecological protection. In addition,the government should set up the typical of green ecological guards,and drive the ecological subsidy system. This paper overcame the shortages of related researches with single index and without combination of variables,and enriched the research results of the empirical analysis between the industrial development,environmental protection and urban sustainable development of the oasis cities in the arid areas such as Xinjiang. In the view of the differences in different areas of economic development level,the efficiency of resource utilization and the constraints of environmental conditions,which affected ecological population capacity based on the theory of Ecological Footprint,it is the future research direction to evaluate the spatial population distribution,industrial layout and make proper ecological protection strategies in different regions.

Key words: urban sustainable development, ecological footprint, VAR model, urban ecological population capacity

中图分类号:

李光明, 邓杰. 产业支撑、生态保护与城市可持续发展研究——以乌鲁木齐为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(4): 868-876.

LI Guang-ming, DENG Jie. Industry supporting,ecology protection and urban sustainable development: A case of the Urumqi[J]. , 2016, 39(4): 868-876.

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