黄淮海流域旱涝周期、突变点和趋势分析研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 选取145个气象站近53a(1961-2013年)逐日气象土壤数据, 运用修正Palmer指数、标准化降水指数(SPI)和降水距平百分率对黄淮海流域的数据资料进行分析与计算, 在此基础上对3种旱涝评价指数的周期、突变点、趋势性进行对比分析. 结果表明: 运用小波周期分析法对3种旱涝评价指数进行周期分析所得的结果基本一致, 三者都存在22～25a、5～10a左右的旱涝变化周期, 其中SPI和降水距平百分率在表现小尺度周期变化上比较显著. 由M-K统计检验和滑动t检验法对3种指数进行突变点检测, 得出修正Palmer指数表征的研究流域旱涝突变年份为1978年, SPI和降水距平百分率的突变年份为1986年. 在气温变化和实际蒸发比较大的情况下, 修正Palmer指数更能准确地表征旱涝强度、性质和持续性.

关键词: 修正Palmer指数, 标准化降水指数, 降水距平百分率, 黄淮海流域

Abstract: Drought disaster can lead to the dry up of reservoirs, river cutoff, decrease of underground water level and agricultural production, human and animal drinking water problems, etc. Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, outstood by serious drought-flood problems, has the drought disaster area and frequency ranked the top in China. Now, with the rapid economic development, population expansion, and the climate change anomalies, natural ecological environment in Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin was badly worsened, and the drought and flood disasters occurred more frequently. Therefore, an efficient drought and flood monitoring and drought assessment method is very urgent. Based on daily weather and soil data of 145 weather stations in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin for nearly 53 years, and selecting modified Palmer Index, standardized precipitation index(SPI)and precipitation anomaly percentage(Pa)as evaluation indexes, this paper made an comparative analyses of the three indexes in evaluating the drought-flood period, mutation point and trend of drought and flood situation by using wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall test and moving T test. Meteorological data was from the National Weather Service Data Center, and the main soil data adopted the ERA40 soil moisture data(medium-range forecasts from the European Centre)from 1961 to 2013. Results show that the period analysis results of the three drought indexes were consistent, and they all presented a major period of 22-25 years and a secondary period of 5-10 years; SPI and Pa were more significant in reflecting changes of short-term period. Result of the mutation point test based on Mann-Kendall test and moving T test showed that mutation point was around 1978 according to modified Palmer Index, while around 1986 according to the other two indexes. As a whole, these three indexes basically showed the same drought tendency, however, under high temperature variation and actual evaporation, the modified Palmer Index can more accurately characterize the drought-flood grades, temperature change response and drought-flood duration. Since the drought and flood formation not only has high correlations with precipitation, solar radiation and relative moisture, but also may relate to unusual weather events, tropical ocean temperature anomaly, and the influence of human activities on the drought and flood situation which was not taken into consideration in revising Palmer index in this paper, further research is expected to be focused on a combination of factors analyzed in depth.

Key words: modified Palmer Index, standardized precipitation index, precipitation anomaly percentage, Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin

中图分类号:

P426.616

曹永强, 刘佳佳, 王学凤, 王琪 . 黄淮海流域旱涝周期、突变点和趋势分析研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(2): 275-284.

CAO Yong-qiang, LIU Jia-jia, WANG Xue-feng, WANG Qi. Drought-and-flood period, mutation point and trend analysis in Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin[J]. , 2016, 39(2): 275-284.

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