受自然扰动的历史街区韧性评估——以新疆喀什古城为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.166

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新时代总体国家安全观背景下，历史街区正面临扰动与韧性建设的双重挑战。以喀什古城历史街区为研究对象，从极端灾害压力、气候环境压力、街巷组成能力、街巷成分密度、基础设施响应、公共服务响应6个要素构建压力-状态-响应（Pressure-state-response，PSR）模型，选取与自然扰动韧性密切相关的44个关键因子，采用熵权法与层次分析法，构建多维度历史街区韧性评估体系。结果表明：（1）喀什古城历史街区韧性综合指数为1.84（Ⅱ级），整体应对能力较弱，状态层韧性（38.83%）显著高于响应层（27.45%），表明其自我调节能力较强但灾后管理薄弱。（2）关键制约因子为雨洪泛滥范围半径、历史街巷道路绿化率与夏季平均热辐射强度，凸显高密度建成环境与气候敏感性的协同风险。（3）传统营建智慧与现代防灾需求存在割裂，形成保护与安全的矛盾。研究结果可为干旱区历史街区的多灾种综合防御与活态保护提供量化范式，有助于推动干旱区文化遗产保护与生态安全的协同发展。

关键词: 历史街区, 自然扰动, 韧性评估, 喀什古城

Abstract:

In the overall national security concept in the new era, historical blocks are facing dual challenges of disturbances and resilience building. Taking the historical block of Kashi Old City as the research object, this studybuilds a pressure-state-response model comprising six elements: Extreme disaster pressure, climate environment pressure, alley composition capacity, alley component density, infrastructure response, and public service response. It selects 44 key factors closely related to resilience to natural disturbances and uses the entropy weight method and the analytic hierarchy process to establish a multidimensional resilience evaluation system for historical blocks. The evaluation results show that (1) The comprehensive resilience index of the historical block of Kashi Old City is 1.84 (Level II), and the overall coping ability is weak. The resilience of the state layer (38.83%) is significantly higher than that of the response layer (27.45%), indicating its strong self-regulating ability but weak postdisaster management. (2) The key restrictive factors are the flood inundation radius, historical street and alley greening rate, and average summer solar radiation intensity, highlighting the synergistic risks between high-density built environments and climate sensitivity. (3) The wisdom of traditional construction is not linked to modern disaster prevention needs, leading to a contradiction between protection and safety. The results reveal a quantitative framework for integrated multi-hazard defense and living conservation of historic districts in arid zones, thereby promoting the synergistic development of cultural heritage conservation and ecological security.

Key words: historic districts, natural disturbance, resilience assessment, Kashi Old City

闫嘉兴, 武文丽, 张旭彤, 盛欣艳. 受自然扰动的历史街区韧性评估——以新疆喀什古城为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(2): 416-427.

YAN Jiaxing, WU Wenli, ZHANG Xutong, SHENG Xinyan. Resilience assessment of historic districts affected by natural disturbances: A case of Kashi Old City in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(2): 416-427.

图/表 14

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表1

历史街区自然扰动韧性评估指标权重"

准则层	要素层	指标层	全局权重	属性
压力层（0.3372）	极端灾害压力指标（0.1669）	城市近源地震等效震级（C₁）	0.0232	负向
		地震次生地质灾害脆弱性等级（C₂）	0.0228	负向
		抗震等级（C₃）	0.0205	正向
		基本地震动加速度反应谱特征周期（C₄）	0.0205	负向
		历史街区平均坡度（C₅）	0.0209	负向
		年平均雷暴日数（C₆）	0.0205	负向
		高温预警天数（C₇）	0.0191	负向
		历年极端高温（C₈）	0.0191	负向
	气候环境压力指标（0.1703）	年平均降雨量（C₉）	0.0195	负向
		年平均降雨天数（C₁₀）	0.0295	负向
		最热月平均高温强度（C₁₁）	0.0295	负向
		年平均空气湿度（C₁₂）	0.0232	正向
		年平均风力强度（C₁₃）	0.0213	负向
		夏季平均热辐射强度（C₁₄）	0.0308	负向
		年平均蒸发量（C₁₅）	0.0196	负向
状态层（0.3882）	街巷组成能力状态（0.1745）	历史建筑平均年份（C₁₆）	0.0211	负向
		历史建筑平均高度（C₁₇）	0.0205	负向
		主要历史街巷平均宽度（C₁₈）	0.0270	正向
		雨洪泛滥范围半径（C₁₉）	0.0387	负向
		历史街巷D/H均值（C₂₀）	0.0243	正向
		建筑耐火等级（C₂₁）	0.0193	正向
		传统民居外墙热阻能力（C₂₂）	0.0234	正向
	街巷成分密度状态（0.2136）	历史街区建筑密度（C₂₃）	0.0205	负向
		历史街巷道路绿化率（C₂₄）	0.0361	负向
		历史街区低高程汇水点密度（C₂₅）	0.0205	正向
		历史街巷密度（C₂₆）	0.0295	负向
		文物保护单位占比（C₂₇）	0.0223	负向
		建筑电线外露占比（C₂₈）	0.0202	负向
		易燃易爆单位密度（C₂₉）	0.0218	正向
		传统民居庭院空间相对湿度（C₃₀）	0.0191	正向
		历史街巷绿植覆盖比例（C₃₁）	0.0234	正向
响应层（0.2746）	基础设施响应指标（0.1417）	历史街区房屋抗震加固占比（C₃₂）	0.0213	正向
		历史街区绿地率（C₃₃）	0.0199	正向
		雨污管道覆盖率（C₃₄）	0.0196	正向
		历史街区洪堤设防长度占比（C₃₅）	0.0191	正向
		古城消防站服务半径（C₃₆）	0.0196	正向
		古城消防栓服务半径（C₃₇）	0.0205	正向
		历史街区避难场所面积占比（C₃₈）	0.0214	正向
	公共服务响应指标（0.1329）	古城医疗服务设施密度（C₃₉）	0.0222	正向
		抗灾广播覆盖率（C₄₀）	0.0214	正向
		可供行人疏散道路密度（C₄₁）	0.0266	正向
		历史街区人均公园面积（C₄₂）	0.0226	正向
		历史街巷增湿频率（C₄₃）	0.0205	正向
		基层社区夏季供冷覆盖半径（C₄₄）	0.0192	正向

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韧性指数区间	韧性等级
[0.00, 1.04)	Ⅰ级
[1.04, 1.96)	Ⅱ级
[1.96, 2.81)	Ⅲ级
[2.81, 4.15)	Ⅳ级
[4.15, 5.52)	Ⅴ级