2003—2022年黄河流域甘肃段水生态安全协同驱动机制研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.753

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 水生态安全事关流域高质量发展和长治久安，探明流域水生态安全协同驱动机制是实现高质量发展的必然要求。构建基于“经济-社会-资源-环境-生态”复合生态系统模型的水生态安全评价指标体系，利用熵权-模糊综合评价法分析2003—2022年黄河流域甘肃段的水生态安全驱动因素，评估水生态安全状况，并基于耦合度和耦合协调度评估水生态安全协同驱动效应。结果表明：（1）农田灌溉用水量占比、雨污回用量、入境水量、林牧渔用水量占比、大型水库年末蓄水总量、径污比的累计贡献率为47.8%，是黄河流域甘肃段水生态安全的最主要影响因子。（2）2003—2022年黄河流域甘肃段水生态安全综合评价指数年均值为0.34，整体状况一般。龙羊峡-兰州的水生态安全状况相对最好，其次是龙羊峡以上，再次是龙门-三门峡，兰州-河口镇相对最差，因此兰州-河口镇是调控的重点区域；生态子系统是重点调控子系统，流域生态本底情况整体较差。（3）2003—2022年黄河流域甘肃段的耦合度年均值为0.986，各流段间相互作用强烈，耦合协调度年均值为0.581，处于基本协调状态。（4）2003—2022年龙羊峡以上子系统间相互作用程度一般，其他流段子系统相互作用程度强烈，并且各流段子系统均处于轻度失调状态。基于研究结果，提出了黄河流域甘肃段水生态安全协同发展建议，为黄河流域高质量发展提供了科学参考。

关键词: 复合生态系统, 熵权-模糊综合评价法, 水生态安全, 黄河流域甘肃段, 协同驱动

Abstract:

Water ecological security is essential for ensuring high-quality development and long-term stability within river basins. Clarifying the synergistic driving mechanisms of water ecological security is therefore critical for promoting sustainable development. This study constructs an evaluation index system for water ecological security based on a composite ecosystem model integrating economy, society, resources, environment, and ecology. Using the entropy weight-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the water ecological security of the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin, China from 2003 to 2022 was assessed. Furthermore, the synergistic driving effects were analyzed using coupling degree and coupling coordination degree models, and the primary influencing factors were identified through geodetector analysis. The main findings are as follows: (1) Indicators including the proportion of agricultural irrigation water use, reclaimed water reuse volume, inflow volume, proportion of water use for forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, year-end storage capacity of large reservoirs, and runoff-to-pollution ratio accounted for 47.8% of the cumulative contribution rate, making them the dominant factors influencing water ecological security in the study area. (2) From 2003 to 2022, the average comprehensive evaluation index of water ecological security in the Gansu section was 0.34, indicating an overall moderate level. Spatial disparities were evident, with the Longyangxia-Lanzhou section performing relatively well, the upstream Longyangxia section moderately, the Longmen-Sanmenxia section suboptimally, and the Lanzhou-Hekou Town section least favorably. The Lanzhou-Hekou Town section was identified as the key area requiring regulation, with the ecological subsystem being the primary limiting factor, reflecting the relatively weak ecological foundation of the basin. (3) From 2003 to 2022, the average coupling degree of water ecological security across the Gansu section was 0.986, suggesting strong mutual interactions among subsystems. The average coupling coordination degree was 0.581, indicating a basically coordinated state. (4) From 2003 to 2022, the degree of subsystem interaction in the upstream Longyangxia section was moderate, whereas other sections exhibited strong interactions. Nonetheless, all subsystems across the study area remained in a state of mild disharmony. These findings provide scientific evidence and practical guidance for advancing coordinated development and enhancing water ecological security in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: complex ecosystem, entropy weight-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, water ecological security, Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin, collaborative driving

戴文渊, 张清华, 史权, 张志超, 张瑞萍, 郑志祥, 张芮. 2003—2022年黄河流域甘肃段水生态安全协同驱动机制研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(11): 1939-1950.

DAI Wenyuan, ZHANG Qinghua, SHI Quan, ZHANG Zhichao, ZHANG Ruiping, ZHENG Zhixiang, ZHANG Rui. Synergistic driving mechanisms of water ecological security in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2022[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(11): 1939-1950.

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综合指数	一级指标	二级指标	三级指标
流域水生态安全评价指标体系	经济系统	经济子系统	三产比重/%
			一产比重/%
			火电增加值比重/%
			国有规模以上工业增加值占比/%
			人均GDP/元·人^-1
			农田灌溉用水量占比/%
	社会系统	社会子系统	城镇化率/%
			人口密度/人·km^-2
			粮食产量/10⁴ t
			大型水库年末蓄水总量/10⁸ m³
			地表水资源供水量/10⁸ m³
			地下水资源供水量/10⁸ m³
	自然复合生态系统	资源子系统	年径流量变化/10⁸ m³
			入境水量/10⁸ m³
			出境水量/10⁸ m³
			河川基流量/10⁸ m³
			地表水资源量/10⁸ m³
			地下水资源量占比/%
		环境子系统	耕地面积比/%
			单位面积牲畜头数/10⁴头·km^-2
			年降雨量变化/10⁸ m³
			产水系数/%
			径污比/%
			单位面积废污水排放量/10⁸ t·km^-2
		生态子系统	林牧渔灌溉面积占比/%
			雨污回用量/10⁸ m³
			林牧渔用水量占比/%
			生态环境用水量占比/%
			耗水率/%
			节水灌溉面积/0.67×10³ hm²

指标	信息熵值	信息效用值	权重系数/%	排序	指标	信息熵值	信息效用值	权重系数/%	排序
三产比重	0.9836	0.0164	0.66	29	河川基流量	0.9178	0.0822	3.30	13
一产比重	0.9784	0.0216	0.87	24	地表水资源量	0.9195	0.0805	3.23	14
火电增加值比重	0.9829	0.0171	0.69	28	地下水资源量占比	0.9663	0.0337	1.35	21
国有规模以上工业增加值占比	0.9670	0.0330	1.33	22	耕地面积比	0.9575	0.0425	1.71	19
人均GDP	0.9475	0.0525	2.11	17	单位面积牲畜头数	0.9816	0.0184	0.74	26
农田灌溉用水量占比	0.8740	0.1260	5.05	6	年降雨量变化	0.9818	0.0182	0.73	27
城镇化率	0.9532	0.0468	1.88	18	产水系数	0.8917	0.1083	4.34	8
人口密度	0.9234	0.0766	3.08	15	径污比	0.6657	0.3343	13.41	1
粮食产量	0.9022	0.0978	3.92	9	单位面积废污水排放量	0.9755	0.0245	0.98	23
大型水库年末蓄水总量	0.7294	0.2706	10.86	2	林牧渔灌溉面积占比	0.8806	0.1194	4.79	7
地表水资源供水量	0.9291	0.0709	2.84	16	雨污回用量	0.8591	0.1409	5.65	5
地下水资源供水量	0.9149	0.0851	3.41	12	林牧渔用水量占比	0.8285	0.1715	6.88	3
年径流量变化	0.9626	0.0374	1.50	20	生态环境用水量占比	0.9051	0.0949	3.81	10
入境水量	0.8507	0.1493	5.99	4	耗水率	0.9783	0.0217	0.87	25
出境水量	0.9849	0.0151	0.61	30	节水灌溉面积	0.9148	0.0852	3.42	11

年份	耦合度	综合协调指数	耦合协调度
2003	0.981	0.349	0.585
2004	0.976	0.346	0.581
2005	0.969	0.343	0.577
2006	0.979	0.324	0.564
2007	0.977	0.339	0.576
2008	0.980	0.325	0.564
2009	0.982	0.324	0.564
2010	0.987	0.339	0.579
2011	0.986	0.334	0.574
2012	0.974	0.373	0.603
2013	0.994	0.325	0.569
2014	0.993	0.316	0.560
2015	0.997	0.312	0.557
2016	0.993	0.327	0.570
2017	0.995	0.340	0.582
2018	0.989	0.373	0.608
2019	0.991	0.386	0.618
2020	0.976	0.387	0.615
2021	0.969	0.346	0.579
2022	0.989	0.345	0.584
年均值	0.986	0.343	0.581

年份	龙羊峡以上			龙羊峡-兰州
年份	耦合度	综合协调指数	耦合协调度	耦合度	综合协调指数	耦合协调度
2003	0.718	0.080	0.239	0.781	0.087	0.260
2004	0.736	0.083	0.247	0.778	0.086	0.258
2005	0.748	0.086	0.253	0.770	0.085	0.256
2006	0.745	0.074	0.236	0.804	0.081	0.256
2007	0.775	0.077	0.245	0.826	0.087	0.267
2008	0.792	0.077	0.247	0.857	0.079	0.260
2009	0.775	0.075	0.241	0.870	0.079	0.262
2010	0.821	0.073	0.245	0.872	0.082	0.267
2011	0.813	0.076	0.248	0.882	0.080	0.266
2012	0.796	0.082	0.256	0.811	0.099	0.284
2013	0.605	0.065	0.198	0.800	0.074	0.243
2014	0.660	0.070	0.215	0.806	0.070	0.238
2015	0.673	0.067	0.212	0.870	0.068	0.242
2016	0.671	0.069	0.215	0.863	0.076	0.257
2017	0.669	0.071	0.218	0.867	0.077	0.259
2018	0.716	0.081	0.241	0.829	0.089	0.272
2019	0.775	0.081	0.250	0.787	0.093	0.270
2020	0.755	0.085	0.253	0.837	0.102	0.292
2021	0.686	0.083	0.239	0.893	0.089	0.282
2022	0.667	0.075	0.223	0.885	0.083	0.270
年均值	0.759	0.076	0.241	0.852	0.083	0.266

年份	兰州-河口镇			龙门-三门峡
年份	耦合度	综合协调指数	耦合协调度	耦合度	综合协调指数	耦合协调度
2003	0.868	0.055	0.219	0.812	0.058	0.216
2004	0.876	0.053	0.216	0.831	0.055	0.214
2005	0.881	0.051	0.212	0.849	0.052	0.211
2006	0.880	0.052	0.214	0.851	0.052	0.210
2007	0.892	0.053	0.217	0.869	0.055	0.218
2008	0.919	0.051	0.216	0.891	0.053	0.218
2009	0.912	0.051	0.215	0.889	0.054	0.220
2010	0.906	0.053	0.219	0.888	0.064	0.238
2011	0.909	0.054	0.221	0.891	0.058	0.227
2012	0.927	0.056	0.229	0.894	0.061	0.233
2013	0.924	0.055	0.225	0.891	0.066	0.243
2014	0.933	0.057	0.230	0.913	0.055	0.224
2015	0.913	0.058	0.230	0.931	0.056	0.229
2016	0.945	0.062	0.241	0.952	0.055	0.229
2017	0.940	0.063	0.243	0.935	0.061	0.239
2018	0.931	0.061	0.238	0.920	0.068	0.250
2019	0.939	0.069	0.255	0.962	0.066	0.252
2020	0.971	0.060	0.240	0.939	0.064	0.244
2021	0.975	0.052	0.225	0.977	0.052	0.226
2022	0.889	0.058	0.227	0.976	0.061	0.243
年均值	0.936	0.056	0.229	0.918	0.058	0.231