河西内陆河流域水生态安全评价研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.01.10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水安全评价相关研究已有较多成果,但绝大多数采用P-S-R（压力-状态-响应）及其扩展模型,且评价指标体系的优化校准几乎从未提及。本文将W-SENCE（与水有关的社会-经济-自然复合生态系统）模型引入水生态安全评价领域,从水生态安全的自然属性和社会经济属性方面构建水生态安全评价指标体系,结合模糊系统分析及改进生态位理论对指标体系分析、优化,以优化后指标体系对河西内陆河流域2014—2017年的水生态安全状况模糊综合评价。结果表明：指标B3（工业增加值）、B13（河川基流量）、B17（产水系数）、B20（引水量）的改进生态位宽度值相对最大,对指标体系影响相对最小,建立优化指标体系时剔除。优化后指标体系中,指标C11（多年平均降水量）、C16（蓄水量）、C17（地表水源供应量）、C18（地下水资源供应量）、C24（生态环境用水量）、C29（节水灌溉面积）权重最大,为流域水生态安全主要影响因子,表明加大水利基础设施投入,发展节水灌溉农业,保护生态环境是提高内陆河流域水生态安全状况的最有效措施。2014—2017年,黑河流域水生态安全状况持续好转,石羊河和疏勒河流域水生态安全状况均呈持续恶化趋势,应作为重点治理区域,内陆河流域水生态安全状况“整体改善,局部恶化”趋势仍在持续。结果可为河西内陆河流域水行政、生态环境管理、生态风险决策提供理论支持。

关键词: 改进生态位, 模糊系统分析, 水生态安全, 河西内陆河

Abstract:

The Hexi Corridor is located in the middle of China, in the depression between the Tibetan Plateau and the Inner Mongolia Plateau; the Siberian High is unimpeded here. The ecology of the Hexi Corridor directly affects the overall ecological situation of China. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to evaluate water security in the inland river basins of the Hexi Corridor. Most research on water security used the traditional pressure-state-response model and its extended model; the optimization and calibration of an evaluation index system have hardly been mentioned. This article introduces the society-economic-water ecological composite system model for water security evaluation. This water ecological security evaluation index system was constructed from natural and socio-economic attributes of water security, and the index system was optimized by fuzzy system analysis and improved niche theory. The optimized and calibrated index system was used for the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the water security of inland river basins in the Hexi Corridor from 2014 to 2017. The improved niche theory was used to calculate the niche width of the evaluation index. The improved niche width values of B3 (industrial added value), B13 (river base flow), B17 (water yield coefficient), and B20 (water diversion) were the largest, which have relatively little influence on the index system. They were eliminated in the optimized index system. Fuzzy system analysis was used to calculate the weight of the evaluation index. In the optimized index system, indexes C11 (perennial average precipitation), C16 (water storage), C17 (surface water supply), C18 (groundwater resource supply), C24 (ecological environment water consumption), and C29 (water-saving irrigation area) have the largest cumulative index weight, at 36.18%. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index of water security in the Heihe River Basin was above 0.45. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index of the Shiyang River Basin decreased from 0.5 in 2014 to <0.3 in 2017. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index of the Shule River Basin hovers around 0.2. The results showed that increasing investment in water conservation, developing water-saving irrigated agriculture, and protecting the ecological environment were the most effective measures to improve water security in inland river basins. From 2014 to 2017, the water security situation in the Heihe River Basin improved, whereas the water security in the Shiyang and Shule River Basins has deteriorated. These basins should be taken as key governance areas, so the trend of the overall improvement and partial deterioration of water security in inland river basins continues. The results provided theoretical and data support for water administration and environmental management departments in the Hexi Corridor to make ecological risk decisions and provided new ideas for the high-quality development of Gansu Province river basins.

Key words: niche improvement theory, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, water ecological security, Hexi inland river

戴文渊,陈年来,李金霞,张芮. 河西内陆河流域水生态安全评价研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(1): 89-98.

DAI Wenyuan,CHEN Nianlai,LI Jinxia,ZHANG Rui. Evaluation of water ecological security in Hexi inland river basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(1): 89-98.

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水生态安全概念框架	属性	评价指标	内陆河流域优选指标
自然复合生态系统（NCE）	资源属性	河川基流量、地表水资源量、水资源总量、平均水量、年均降水量	牲畜头数、蓄水量、引水量
	环境属性	生态环境用水量、流域计算面积、产水系数、产水模数、径流深
	生态属性	节水灌溉面积、农田灌溉水量、林木渔畜用水量、工业用水量、建筑业用水量、居民生活用水量
	灾害属性	城镇居民生活废污水量、废污水排放量、达标排放量
社会（S）	人文属性	人口、农田有效溉面积万亩、农田实灌面积
经济（E）	经济属性	GDP、工业增加值、地表水源供应量、地下水源供应量、粮食产量

指标编号	评价指标	疏勒河	黑河	石羊河	指标编号	评价指标	疏勒河	黑河	石羊河
B1	人口	0.9013	0.6164	0.5834	B18	产水模数	0.0238	0.1665	0.1732
B2	GDP	0.8104	0.5354	0.6700	B19	蓄水量	0.9253	0.9630	1.0000
B3	工业增加值	0.6805	0.3207	0.5039	B20	引水量	0.0427	1.0000	0.0567
B4	耕地面积	0.8280	0.5565	0.6224	B21	地表水源供应量	0.3996	1.0000	0.5354
B5	农田有效溉面积	0.6818	0.0000	0.2713	B22	地下水源供应量	0.3740	1.0000	0.7816
B6	农田实灌面积	0.6716	0.0000	0.3593	B23	农田灌溉水量	0.5960	0.0000	0.4041
B7	粮食产量	0.9609	0.3548	0.4323	B24	林木渔畜用水量	0.7471	0.0000	0.6078
B8	牲畜头数	0.6713	0.0000	0.1583	B25	工业用水量	0.6650	0.1997	0.2125
B9	河流年均水量	0.7096	0.4429	0.3744	B26	建筑业用水量	0.8485	0.6258	0.7944
B10	流域计算面积	0.0000	0.6515	0.7614	B27	居民生活用水量	0.8995	0.5693	0.6184
B11	径流深	0.0275	0.1553	0.1468	B28	生态环境用水量	0.6728	1.0000	0.4616
B12	年均降水量	0.2060	0.2071	0.1489	B29	经济社会用水量	0.6073	0.0000	0.3996
B13	河川基流量	0.1055	0.2596	0.1749	B30	城镇居民生活废污水产生量	0.9570	0.6659	0.4991
B14	地表水资源量	0.2697	0.3151	0.2055	B31	废污水排放量	0.7441	0.4057	0.4511
B15	地下水资源量	0.4898	0.8661	0.4590	B32	达标排放量	0.1327	0.2215	0.2526
B16	水资源总量	0.2745	0.3415	0.2415	B33	节水灌溉面积	0.4058	0.8388	1.0000
B17	产水系数	0.5833	0.6667	0.4167

项目编号	疏勒河	黑河	石羊河	指标生态位宽度均值	项目编号	疏勒河	黑河	石羊河	指标生态位宽度均值	项目编号	疏勒河	黑河	石羊河	指标生态位宽度均值
B1	1.0000	9.9397	11.1150	9.2333	B12	8.6641	8.6075	11.1105	9.4607	B23	10.6027	1.0000	9.6942	7.09896
B2	1.0000	14.2330	8.8119	2.3553	B13	16.3368	7.1427	9.3333	10.9376	B24	7.6464	1.0000	10.1973	6.28125
B3	8.6495	7.0969	18.1197	9.4565	B14	7.0540	7.0690	8.6903	7.60441	B25	8.8934	7.8576	8.3499	8.36696
B4	1.0000	12.5780	9.7762	10.2856	B15	7.9762	1.0000	8.3138	5.7633	B26	1.0000	9.6890	1.0000	3.89631
B5	8.6300	1.0000	7.0439	10.1355	B16	7.0267	7.1877	7.4282	7.2142	B27	1.0000	11.8091	9.8838	7.56431
B6	8.7865	1.0000	12.4947	8.1474	B17	11.1195	8.8654	9.2430	9.7426	B28	8.7676	1.0000	8.2776	6.0154
B7	1.0000	12.9321	8.8119	7.0386	B18	1.0000	9.8642	9.4386	6.7676	B29	10.2132	1.0000	9.8823	7.03185
B8	8.7912	1.0000	10.4161	7.3212	B19	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	B30	1.0000	8.8785	7.9010	5.92650
B9	8.2293	8.5833	11.2789	9.4928	B20	1.0000	1.0000	39.8644	13.9548	B31	7.6980	9.6310	8.4357	8.58820
B10	1.0000	9.1315	1.0000	8.1031	B21	9.8823	1.0000	14.2330	8.37178	B32	12.5530	7.9882	7.2322	9.25779
B11	1.0000	10.6294	11.2774	1.0000	B22	11.3067	1.0000	1.0000	4.43558	B33	9.6271	1.0000	1.0000	3.87569
生态位宽度平均值	6.3774	6.1428	9.4441		生态位宽度均值	6.3774	6.1428	9.4441		生态位宽度均值	6.3774	6.1428	9.4441

指标编号	评价指标	指标编号	评价指标	指标编号	评价指标	指标编号	评价指标
C1	人口	C9	流域计算面积	C17	地表水源供应量	C25	经济社会用水量
C2	GDP	C10	径流深	C18	地下水源供应量	C26	城镇居民生活废污水量
C3	耕地面积	C11	年均降水量	C19	农田灌溉水量	C27	废污水排放量
C4	农田有效溉面积	C12	地表水资源量	C20	林木渔畜用水量	C28	达标排放量
C5	农田实灌面积	C13	地下水资源量	C21	工业用水量	C29	节水灌溉面积
C6	粮食产量	C14	水资源总量	C22	建筑业用水量
C7	牲畜	C15	产水模数	C23	居民生活用水量
C8	河流年均水量	C16	蓄水量	C24	生态环境用水量

评价指标及编号	指标权重	指标体系编号	指标权重	指标体系编号	指标权重
C1	0.0134	C11	0.0578	C21	0.0111
C2	0.0068	C12	0.0571	C22	0.0047
C3	0.0111	C13	0.0549	C23	0.0100
C4	0.0023	C14	0.0568	C24	0.0599
C5	0.0018	C15	0.0432	C25	0.0021
C6	0.0128	C16	0.0618	C26	0.0077
C7	0.0126	C17	0.0612	C27	0.0081
C8	0.0476	C18	0.0633	C28	0.0573
C9	0.0035	C19	0.0007	C29	0.0578
C10	0.0434	C20	0.0001