塔里木河流域水-耕地-粮棉系统耦合关系及影响因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.496

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

作为典型的干旱区和生态脆弱区，塔里木河流域是我国粮食、棉花的重要生产基地。水资源、耕地资源与粮棉资源的良性协调发展成为流域可持续发展的关键。通过构建塔里木河流域水-耕地-粮棉系统，测算其发展指数，并以耦合协调度模型测量了系统的耦合程度，在此基础上利用Fractional Logit模型分析了水-耕地-粮棉系统协调发展的影响因素。结果表明：（1）塔里木河流域各系统的发展指数呈现水系统>水-耕地-粮棉系统>耕地系统>粮棉系统。五地州中，巴音郭楞蒙古自治州各系统发展指数排名与流域一致，喀什地区和阿克苏地区在耕地和粮棉系统发展水平领先，水资源系统发展水平靠后，而克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州与和田地区则是水系统发展指数位居前列，耕地和粮棉系统发展较落后。（2）流域内水-耕地-粮棉系统耦合协调度介于0.475~0.680之间，处于勉强协调与初级协调之间。五地州中，喀什地区最高，克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州最低。这一指标经过缓慢提升后在2017年后明显下降。五地州中，阿克苏地区下降最为明显。（3）水库数量、一般公共预算支出及人口数量是影响水-耕地-粮棉系统协调发展状况的关键因素，三者每增加1个单位将分别引起耦合协调度1.0%、21.0%、35.6%的提升。

关键词: 水-耕地-粮棉, 发展指数, 耦合关系, 影响因素分析

Abstract:

In the arid and ecologically sensitive Tarim River Basin, a vital hub for grain and cotton production in China, the harmonious development of water, arable land, and agricultural resources is crucial for sustainable growth. This study constructs a water-cropland-grain-cotton system model for the basin, evaluates its development index, and assesses the system’s coupling coordination using a coupling coordination degree model. Furthermore, the Fractional Logit model was employed to identify factors influencing the system’s coordinated development. The findings reveal that: (1) The development indices indicate a hierarchy of water system>water-cropland-grain-cotton system>cropland system>grain-cotton system. Post-2013, the development index of the cropland system in Aksu and Kashgar Prefetures surged, surpassing those of the combined water-cropland-grain-cotton system and the individual water system. Changes in other areas were minimal. (2) The coordination level of the basin’s coupled system ranges from 0.475 to 0.680, indicating a transition from minimal to basic coordination. Kashgar exhibits the highest coordination, while Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture the lowest. This index, after an initial gradual increase, experienced a notable decline post-2017, particularly in the Aksu Prefecture. (3) The number of reservoirs, general public budget expenditure, and population size emerge as critical factors influencing the system’s coordination. An increase of one unit in these variables corresponds to a rise in the coupling coordination degree by 1.0%, 21.0%, and 35.6%, respectively.

Key words: water-cropland-grain-cotton, development index, coupling relationship, influence factor analysis

卢泉, 高花彦, 王鹏鹏, 冯啸林, 杨艳霞. 塔里木河流域水-耕地-粮棉系统耦合关系及影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(5): 820-829.

LU Quan, GAO Huayan, WANG Pengpeng, FENG Xiaolin, YANG Yanxia. Coupling relationship and influencing factors of water-cropland-grain-cotton system in Tarim River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(5): 820-829.

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系统名称	指标名称	指标性质	信息熵值	权重系数/%
水	水资源总量/10⁸ m³	正	0.9425	9.48
	供水总量/10⁸ m³	正	0.9358	10.58
	第一产业用水量/10⁸ m³	负	0.9461	8.89
	第二产业用水量/10⁸ m³	负	0.9873	2.09
	居民生活用水量/10⁸ m³	负	0.9923	1.27
	人均用水量/m³·人^-1	负	0.9672	5.42
	产水模数/10⁴ m³·km^-2	正	0.9413	9.68
	亿元GDP用水量/10⁸ m³·(10⁸元)^-1	负	0.9845	2.56
耕地	农作物播种面积/hm²	正	0.9226	12.78
	农业机械总动力/kW	正	0.9242	12.51
	化肥使用量/t	负	0.9722	4.59
粮棉	粮棉总产量/t	正	0.9244	12.47
	粮棉单位面积产量/t·hm^-2	正	0.9676	5.35
	粮棉播种面积比重/%	正	0.9859	2.33

年份	耦合协调程度	耦合协调度	年份	耦合协调程度	耦合协调度
2005	濒临失调	0.475	2013	初级协调	0.606
2006	勉强协调	0.515	2014	勉强协调	0.581
2007	濒临失调	0.492	2015	初级协调	0.673
2008	勉强协调	0.518	2016	初级协调	0.669
2009	勉强协调	0.574	2017	初级协调	0.680
2010	勉强协调	0.511	2018	勉强协调	0.599
2011	初级协调	0.615	2019	勉强协调	0.583
2012	初级协调	0.600	2020	初级协调	0.601

年份	全局莫兰指数	标准偏差	P值	年份	全局莫兰指数	标准偏差	P值
2005	-0.437	0.216	0.194	2013	-0.2523	0.170	0.494
2006	-0.333	0.228	0.357	2014	-0.263	0.150	0.464
2007	-0.253	0.226	0.495	2015	-0.500	0.202	0.108
2008	-0.395	0.220	0.255	2016	-0.412	0.166	0.164
2009	-0.414	0.196	0.202	2017	-0.377	0.172	0.231
2010	-0.340	0.175	0.303	2018	-0.305	0.197	0.390
2011	-0.366	0.218	0.298	2019	-0.364	0.152	0.226
2012	-0.390	0.210	0.253	2020	-0.396	0.159	0.180

变量	回归系数	标准误	Z值	P值	置信区间
X₁	0.010	0.005	2.20	0.028	0.001	0.019
X₂	-0.036	0.059	-0.61	0.542	-0.150	0.079
lnX₃	0.210	0.064	3.30	0.001	0.085	0.335
lnX₄	0.356	0.102	3.50	0.000	0.156	0.555
lnX₅	-0.047	0.057	-0.82	0.412	-0.160	0.065
常数	-2.075	1.034	-2.01	0.045	-4.102	-0.049

变量	OLS模型			Tobit模型
变量	回归系数	标准误	P值	回归系数	标准误	P值
X₁	0.002^**	0.001	0.043	0.002^**	0.001	0.023
X₂	-0.007	0.013	0.584	-0.007	0.011	0.514
lnX₃	0.048^***	0.015	0.002	0.048^***	0.014	0.001
lnX₄	0.088^***	0.025	0.000	0.088^***	0.025	0.001
lnX₅	-0.011	0.015	0.441	-0.011	0.015	0.451
常数	-0.013	0.239	0.958	-0.013	0.214	0.953