青藏高原东北部区域持续性低温事件的特征及影响因子分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.04.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1960—2020年青藏高原东北部66个观测站日最低气温资料和NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,根据百分位法确定了32个区域持续性低温事件,并对该事件发生的概率分布及影响其发生的主要环流系统进行了分析,同时探讨了冬季气候指数的极端性与低温事件发生的关联性。结果表明：（1）区域持续性低温事件主要集中在东部农业区。（2）不同类型低温事件环流差异主要表现在高层500 hPa高度场正异常中心和负异常中心的纬度位置以及700 hPa北风分量向南延伸的强度。（3）冬季极涡、印缅槽、高原高度场、高原加热场、AO的极端性与区域性极端低温事件的发生相对应,低温事件的发生概率均超过60%,利用它们可以提升高原区域持续性低温事件的诊断和预测能力。

关键词: 区域持续性低温事件, 环流异常, 气候指数, 青藏高原东北部

Abstract:

Based on daily minimum temperature data from 66 observation stations in winter in the northeast region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China from 1960 to 2020 and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis product, this paper uses the percentile method to determine persistent low-temperature events, proposes criteria for low-temperature days and regional persistent low-temperature events, and discusses the extreme winter climate index and the relevance of incidents at low-temperature. The results show the following. (1) Regional persistent low-temperature events were primarily concentrated in the eastern agricultural area. (2) The differences between different types of low-temperature event circulations are primarily manifested in the latitudes of the positive and negative anomaly centers of the 500-hPa height field and the southward extension strength of the 700-hPa north wind component. (3) The polar vortex index, plateau region index, Indian-Burma Trough, Arctic Oscillation index, and plateau heating field reach 15% (or 85%) extreme thresholds, and the percentage occurrence of regional extreme low-temperature events exceeds 60%. Therefore, certain signals can be used for diagnosing and predicting the RELTE from index anomalies. In the context of climate warming, the distribution characteristics of persistent extreme low-temperature events in the northeast area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and their correlation with extreme climate indexes were studied to provide references for agricultural and animal husbandry production, meteorological disaster early warning, and the further improvement of the ecological meteorological service guarantee capacity in this region.

Key words: regional persistent low temperature event, circulation anomaly, climate index, northeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

张调风,杨昭明,温婷婷,来晓玲,马有绚. 青藏高原东北部区域持续性低温事件的特征及影响因子分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(4): 897-905.

ZHANG Tiaofeng,YANG Zhaoming,WEN Tingting,LAI Xiaoling,MA Youxuan. Characteristics and influencing factors of persistent low temperature events in northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(4): 897-905.

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极涡强度		高原高度场		印缅槽		北极涛动（AO）指数		高原加热场
达到阈值年份	对应事件	达到阈值年份	对应事件	达到阈值年份	对应事件	达到阈值年份	对应事件	达到阈值年份	对应事件
1965	√	1961	√	1961	√	1962	√	1961	√
1968	√	1962	√	1962	√	1965	√	1962	√
1970		1963	√	1964	√	1968	√	1963	√
1971	√	1967	√	1967	√	1969	√	1965	√
1972	√	1968	√	1970		1976	√	1967	√
1977		1970		1971	√	1984		2007
1978		1973		1973		1985		2011
1993	√	1974		1974		2000		2012
1996	√	1975	√	1975	√	2009	√	-