产城融合导向下城市扩张多智能体模型——以天津市为例

干旱区地理 ›› 2017, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 881-887.

产城融合导向下城市扩张多智能体模型——以天津市为例

张磊¹, 黄秋¹, 高旭¹, 陈晓琴¹, 王丽君¹, 何英彬²

1. 天津工业大学管理学院, 天津 300387;
2. 中国农科院资源区划所, 北京 100081

收稿日期:2017-02-10 修回日期:2017-05-19 出版日期:2017-07-25
通讯作者: 何英彬,副研究员,主要研究方向为农业规划与区域发展.Email:heyingbin@caas.cn
作者简介:张磊,女,博士,副教授,研究方向为土地资源管理与土地利用规划.Email:zhanglei-nk@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41301189）；天津市哲学社会科学规划（TJGL17-014）

Multi-agent model of urban expansion under the city-industry integration:a case study of Tianjin

ZHANG Lei¹, HUANG Qiu¹, GAO Xu¹, CHEN Xiao-qin¹, WANG Li-jun¹, HE Ying-bin²

1. School of Management, Tianjin polytechnic University, Tianjin 300387, China;
2. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, CAAS, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2017-02-10 Revised:2017-05-19 Online:2017-07-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以产城融合为导向，在分析决策主体时空规律的基础上设计产城融合多智能体的适宜性评价指标，构建城市扩张多智能体模型，并对天津市2005-2020年的城市土地空间扩张情况进行模拟。结果表明：（1）该模型具有较好的可信度和模拟效果，能够有效模拟和预测产城融合导向下的城市土地空间扩张动态变化。（2）由天津市2020年城市土地空间扩张预测结果可知，未来城市用地仍以"摊大饼"式外延扩张为主，但位于城市边缘地带的"卫星城"已成为城市和产业进行功能融合、空间融合的起点，未来城市用地将向着产城融合的趋势演化。

关键词: 产城融合, 多智能体, 城市扩张, 城市用地, 天津

Abstract: In recent 10 years,China has entered a special stage of rapid urbanization and transition to post-industrialization,the growth rate of urban population and construction land is unprecedented,especially in the marginal areas of towns with relatively concentrated industrial parks. With the expansion of urban land,the land occupation contradiction between urban residential land and industrial land has been increasingly prominent. In order to settle this contradiction,the new mode of integrative development of city and industry was opened up in China. The city and industry integration takes human as the media,city as the guarantee and industry as the driving force,promotes the transformation and upgrading of the city and the comprehensive development of the industry, and emphasizes the integrative development of city,human and industry in terms of functions and space. Firstly, through sorting out relevant theoretical research on city and industry integration,the basic characteristics and laws of the expansion of city and industry integration oriented multi-agent city were investigated,the time-space law of the decision-making subjects was analyzed,the behavior rules of the intelligent agent was designed,the conversion conditions between land categories were comprehensively weighed,and the multi-agents simulation model of urban land space expansion and consisting of"industrial parks,the public and city"was built. Secondly,the model adopted fuzzy membership function as the principal method to set the suitability evaluation indexes for city and industry integration oriented multi-agent. Suitability can not only reflect the process state of new-type urbanization and the situation of city economic development,but also reflect the speed of urban land expansion to a certain extent. The model was applied to Tianjin City and used to simulate the land space expansion of the city from 2005 to 2020. Eventually,the simulated results were compared with the practical situation. The result show that the model has favorable reliability and simulation effect,which can achieve effective prediction on urban land space expansion within the coming 10 years,relatively accurately reveal the laws of urban land space expansion in Tianjin,provide policy suggestions for the government macro planning and promote the sound development of the city.

Key words: city-industry integration, multi-agent system, urban land expansion, urban land

中图分类号:

F291.1

张磊, 黄秋, 高旭, 陈晓琴, 王丽君, 何英彬. 产城融合导向下城市扩张多智能体模型——以天津市为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2017, 40(4): 881-887.

ZHANG Lei, HUANG Qiu, GAO Xu, CHEN Xiao-qin, WANG Li-jun, HE Ying-bin. Multi-agent model of urban expansion under the city-industry integration:a case study of Tianjin[J]. , 2017, 40(4): 881-887.

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