基于MCE-CA模型的嘉峪关市城市开发边界划定研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以中国西北绿洲工业城市嘉峪关为研究对象，基于遥感影像数据，应用地理优化模拟系统（GeoSOS）的MCE-CA模型，整合“正规划”和“反规划”理念，研究了嘉峪关城市2020年和2030年的城市开发边界划定，以期为嘉峪关市土地利用和城市管理提供依据。结果表明：（1）在研究的19 a间，嘉峪关市扩张迅速，2014年的城市用地面积是1995年的2.1倍，城市外围轮廓形态的紧凑度呈减小的趋势，由1995年的0.25减小到2014年的0.14，城市蔓延性增长特征明显。斑块密度逐渐增大，由1995年的0.02增加到2014年的0.12，城市发展趋于松散，城市用地破碎度增加，城市用地连通度下降。（2）嘉峪关市2020年和2030年的弹性城市开发边界规模分别为106.78 km²和149.35 km²，刚性城市开发边界为246.92 km²。（3）划定的城市开发边界提升了嘉峪关市紧凑度和连通度，城市用地紧凑度指数增加了0.014和0.015，斑块密度指数下降了0.003和0.002，优化了城市空间布局，遏制了城市蔓延式的发展趋势，更符合生态型城市建设的要求。应用MCE-CA模型实现了影响城市发展因素的量化和空间表达，将“反规划”理念和GIS空间技术应用到城市用地布局规划实践中，具有较高的模拟精度和准确的结果，且易于操作。

关键词: 绿洲城市, 城市开发边界(UDB), MCE-CA模型, 嘉峪关市

Abstract: The urban development boundary(UDB),often called urban growth boundary(UGB) internationally, is one of the effective measures and methods to restrain immoderation sprawl of city size,promote urban compact growth and improve efficiency of urban land use. Due to water restriction and ecological vulnerability,oasis cities are the typical region having the densest human activities and the most sensitive relationship between human and environment. In this paper,Jiayuguan City,a typical oasis industrial city in arid region,Gansu Province, northwest China,was selected to study the delimitation of urban development boundary by 2020 and 2030 with the MCE-CA model of geographic optimization simulation system(GeoSOS) based on multi-temporal Landsat TM/ETM data,combined with "Planning" and "Anti-planning" conception,the aim of this study is to provide basis for the land use and urban management of Jiayuguan. The results show as follows:(1) from 1995 to 2014,Jiayuguan City expanded rapidly,the urban land area in 2014 was 2.1 times as big as that in 1995;the urban compactness of outline decreased from 0.25 in 1995 to 0.14 in 2014,and the characteristic of urban sprawl was obvious; the patch density increased from 0.02 in 1995 to 0.12 in 2014,indicating a more looser urban development tendency; urban land fragmentation increased and urban land connectivity decreased;(2) flexible urban development boundary will be 106.78 km² and 149.35 km² in Jiayuguan by 2020 and 2030,respectively,and rigid urban development boundary will be 246.92 km²;(3) urban development boundary,which has been delimited in this paper,could promote the compactness and connectivity of Jiayuguan,compactness of urban land use may increase to 0.199 and 0.218,the compact index may increase to 0.014 and 0.015,patch density may decrease to 0.043 and 0.023,patch density index may decrease to 0.003 and 0.002;it can optimize the urban space layout and restrain urban sprawl, and met the constructive requirements of ecotypic city better. It is the first time to delimit urban development boundaries based on MCE-CA model,realized the quantification and spatial expression for the factors effecting urban development in MCE-CA model,and applied the "Anti-planning" conception and GIS into planning practices of urban land layout,which was easy to operate with high precision and accuracy of the simulation results.

Key words: oasis city, urban development boundary (UDB), MCE-CA model, Jiayuguan City

中图分类号:

TU984.11

任君, 刘学录, 岳健鹰, 王永豪, 张天中. 基于MCE-CA模型的嘉峪关市城市开发边界划定研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(5): 1111-1119.

REN Jun, LIU Xue-lu, YUE Jian-ying, WANG Yong-hao, ZHANG Tian-zhong. Delimiting the urban development boundary of Jiayuguan City based on MCE-CA model[J]. , 2016, 39(5): 1111-1119.

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