关键词: 牧户, 信贷特征, 信贷获取, Logistic回归模型

Abstract: With increase of the Central Government's efforts to support the development of grassland animal husbandry, the ecology and environment of pastoral areas have been obviously improved, economic development of the areas has been accelerated, the animal husbandry production has been increased efficiently, herdsmen's income has increased. But problems of animal husbandry are still acute right now, in which problem of herdsmen's income is most important one, and solving herdsmen financial difficult now become one of the important conditions for improving livestock productivity and uplifting the herdsmen's income. Therefore, guiding the credit funds to invest in animal husbandry and providing a low threshold credit for herdsman families is practical and effective way to solve the financing difficulties of the herdsmen. Based on an empirical research with four counties as Xinyuan County, Zhaosu County, Tekesi County and Nilka County of Ili Prefecture, Xinjiang, China, in July and August 2014 for collecting survey data, the issue of credit acquisition is discussed from the perspective of the micro-level of the herdsmen in Xinjiang, and constructing index system with the subjective inner perception and objective external factors of 201 herdsmen at the same time. Using logistic econometric models, four major types of herdsman family characteristics, production assets, property endowment, credit supply factors and 14 variables, the paper analyzed the characteristics and influencing factors of herdsmen to obtain credit. Results show that the significant influence factors what the herdsman families access to credit are mainly the student number of herdsman family, herdsman's capacity to bear risk, grassland area, durable consumer goods value, herdsman's livestock amounts, loan interest rates. The student number, herdsman's capacity to bear risk, the loan rate have positive correlations with the herdsman's credit acquisition, which is consistent with the expectation. The relationship between the value of consumer durable goods and the herdsman's credit acquisition is a negative correlation, which is consistent with the expectation. The relationship between the herdsman grassland area and the herdsman's credit acquisition is a U type relationship, which is different from the expectation. The herdsman livestock ownership and the herdsman's credit acquisition is an inverted U type relationship, which is different from the expectation. In general, credit acquisition of herdsmen is mainly influenced by family life and production pressure. The impact of the age, educational qualifications, honesty of the householder, and the distance from the herdsman's settlement to the regional center to credit acquisition were not obvious. According to the characteristics of great amount and time time-intensive of herdsman's loan, the design of credit product should be revised, and the repayment period should be reasonably determined. In view of the problem of the large loan cost, the formal financial institution should obtimize the loan approval procedure, reduce unnecessary mortgage or guarantee procedure, improve the financial service quality. It is valuable that the perception of improving the scale of farming herdsman, expanding the area of grassland, enhancing the quality of the labor force has been accepted by herdsmen of the region, which is a useful reference for developing credit policy and direction of adjustment for animal husbandry for the administrative departments in the future.

Key words: Herdsmen, Credit characteristic, Credit acquisition, Logistic regression model