关键词: 门限自回归, 随机函数典型分解, 模型耦合, 龙羊峡水库

Abstract: For the sake of concerning both yearly and monthly variation of hydrological elements so that we can use information of real-time data to reform the forecasting values which were predicated before, this paper couples up the threshold autoregression model and the typical decomposion of random function model to give a predication for longyangxia reservoir in the upper reaches of yellow river. The results is excellent.