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干旱区地理 ›› 1988, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (4): 45-51.doi: 10.13826/j.cnki.cn65-1103/x.1988.04.007

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时间序列分析在乌鲁木齐河年径流预测中的应用

张捷斌   

  1. 中国科学院新疆地理研究所
  • 出版日期:1988-12-25 发布日期:2025-12-25

Application of Time Series Analysis on the Forecast of Annual Runoff of Utumqi Rives

Zhang Jie-bin   

  1. Xinjiang Institute of Geography
  • Published:1988-12-25 Online:2025-12-25

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摘要： 本文以时间序列分析为基础,对河流年径流过程的预测进行了分析与探讨。着重分析了径流过程的分解、各组成分量的特性及其模拟方法。并以乌鲁木齐河年径流过程为例进行了预测。

关键词: 径流预测, 时间序列分析, 随机过程, 乌鲁木齐河

Abstract: The forecast of annual runoff process is analysed and probed into based on time series analysis in this paper．It is payed a great attention to analy-se the decomposition of the runoff process，the feature and modelling me-thod of each component．Annual runoff process of Urumqi River is exam-pled at last and the result of its forecast is proved to be satisfactory.