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干旱区地理 ›› 1988, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (2): 67-72.doi: 10.13826/j.cnki.cn65-1103/x.1988.02.012

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灰色系统理论在降水量超长期预测中的应用

杨德伟1, 卓景愉1, 郑维2, 唐风兰2   

  1. 1.新疆八一农学院
    2.新疆气象科研所
  • 出版日期:1988-06-25 发布日期:2025-12-25

Application of Grey System Theory to the Extra Long－Range Precipitation Forecast

Yang Dewei1, Zhou Jingqu1, Zheng wei2, Tang Fonglan2   

  1. 1. Xinjiang August 1st Agricultural College
    2. Institute of Xinjiang Meteorology
  • Published:1988-06-25 Online:2025-12-25

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摘要： 应用灰色系统理论,根据乌鲁木齐地区46年(1941-1986年)降水量资料,建立了一套灰色动态模型,对未来21年的降水量趋势进行了研究,并用1981-1986年降水资料进行验证,得到了理想的结果,可为粮食产量预测及制定农业规划提供科学依据。

关键词: 灰色动态模型, 降水量超长期预报

Abstract: In this paper，it is described that utilizing the advantage of grey sys-tem theory and taking the data of precipitation from 1941 to 1986（46 years） in Urumqi area，a set of grey mobile state model was developed and the future 21 years＇precipitation tendency was studied．It was verified by the data of precipitation from 1981 to 1986 years in Urumqi area．An ideal re-sult has been obtained．And the scientific bases were offered for forecasting grain output and working out agricultural plan．