塔里木河中游年径流量预报及未来30年南疆气候趋势

doi:10.13826/j.cnki.cn65-1103/x.1988.02.011

干旱区地理 ›› 1988, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (2): 61-66.doi: 10.13826/j.cnki.cn65-1103/x.1988.02.011

塔里木河中游年径流量预报及未来30年南疆气候趋势

温跨达, 南庆红

新疆自治区气象科研所

出版日期:1988-06-25 发布日期:2025-12-25

FORECAST THE ANNUAL FLOW OF MIDDLE TARIM RIVER & LOOK FORWARD THE CLIMATE OF THE SOUTH XINJIANG

Wen Kuada, Nan Qinghong

Institute of Xinjiang Meteorology

Published:1988-06-25 Online:2025-12-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以重建塔里木河中游年径流量的拟合位为原始数据,用维纳滤波和线性预测方法作了塔里木河中游50年的年径流量预测。前20年(1964-1983)作为试报,用以考察预报效果,后30年(1984-2013)为预报。利用年径流量预报值分析未来30年南疆的气候变化趋势。

关键词: 年径流量, 线性预测, 气候变化趋势

Abstract: This paper using the imitated annual flow of middle Tarim river as basic data，predicts the annual flow of middle Tarim river in the future 50 years （1964-2013），by the method of Wiener-wave filter and Liner prediction． The fore 20 years of prediction is an experiment for examining the effect of forecasting，and the latter 30 years is forecasted．It will be looked forward the climate of the south Xinjiang in the future 30 years．

温跨达, 南庆红. 塔里木河中游年径流量预报及未来30年南疆气候趋势[J]. 干旱区地理, 1988, 11(2): 61-66.

Wen Kuada, Nan Qinghong. FORECAST THE ANNUAL FLOW OF MIDDLE TARIM RIVER & LOOK FORWARD THE CLIMATE OF THE SOUTH XINJIANG[J]. Arid Land Geography, 1988, 11(2): 61-66.

塔里木河中游年径流量预报及未来30年南疆气候趋势

FORECAST THE ANNUAL FLOW OF MIDDLE TARIM RIVER & LOOK FORWARD THE CLIMATE OF THE SOUTH XINJIANG

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