农业水价综合改革对中国种植业高质量发展的影响与作用机制

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2025.323

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

种植业高质量发展是推进农业强国建设的核心支撑与关键路径。探究农业水价综合改革对中国种植业高质量发展的影响，可为改革政策如何深化实施以服务于种植业高质量发展提供科学依据。从种植业投入产出视角探究农业水价综合改革对种植业高质量发展的作用机制，测度种植业高质量发展水平，运用交错双重差分模型检验农业水价综合改革政策对种植业高质量发展的影响和作用机制，并重点关注其区域异质性。结果表明：（1）2011—2022年中国种植业高质量发展水平总体稳步上升，空间上东部沿海与北方主产区优势突出、中西部梯度递减。（2）农业水价综合改革政策有助于推动种植业高质量发展，但其影响存在显著的区域异质性，粮食主产区、南方地区受政策影响更为显著。（3）农业水价综合改革政策通过农业节水、种植结构调整及节水灌溉技术采用等机制促进种植业高质量发展，且机制作用亦存在显著的区域异质性。因此，建议未来农业水价综合改革构建差异化的深化实施框架，以有效服务于种植业高质量发展。

关键词: 农业水价, 综合改革, 种植业高质量发展, 区域异质性, 交错双重差分

Abstract:

High-quality development of the planting industry is a fundamental support and key pathway for building an agricultural powerhouse in China. Assessing how agricultural water price reform influences the industry’s high-quality development can provide evidence to guide the further deepening and effective implementation of reform policies. From an input-output perspective, this study examines the effects and mechanisms of agricultural water price reform on the high-quality development of China’s planting industry and measures the level of high-quality development of planting industry. We construct an index to measure the level of high-quality development and employ a staggered difference-in-differences model to test the policy’s impacts, mechanisms, and regional heterogeneity. The results show that (1) From 2011 to 2022, the level of high-quality development in China’s planting industry increased overall, with clear spatial disparities: eastern coastal provinces and northern major grain-producing areas performed better, and a stepwise decline is observed from central to western regions. (2) The findings also suggest that agricultural water price reform significantly promotes high-quality development, but the effects vary across regions, with stronger effects in major grain-producing areas and southern regions. (3) The reform advances high-quality development by encouraging agricultural water conservation, optimizing cropping structures, and increasing the adoption of water-saving irrigation technologies; these mechanisms also exhibit marked regional heterogeneity. These findings suggest that future reforms should adopt a differentiated framework for deepening implementation, tailored to regional conditions, to better support high-quality development of the planting industry.

Key words: agricultural water price, comprehensive reform, high-quality development of planting industry, regional heterogeneity, staggered difference-in-differences

史亚娟, 王永瑜, 罗雷. 农业水价综合改革对中国种植业高质量发展的影响与作用机制[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(3): 607-618.

SHI Yajuan, WANG Yongyu, LUO Lei. Impact and mechanism of agricultural water price reform on the high-quality development of planting industry in China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(3): 607-618.

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维度	指标	指标定义与说明	指标属性
增产	单位面积产值/元·m^-2	农业总产值/农作物总播种面积	正向
	单位面积粮食产量/kg·m^-2	粮食产量/粮食播种面积	正向
	人均耕地面积/10⁴ m²·人^-1	耕地面积/乡村人口数	正向
	有效灌溉率	有效灌溉面积/耕地面积	正向
高效	农业节水灌溉水平	节水灌溉面积/有效灌溉面积	正向
	农业机械化水平/kJ·m^-2	农用机械总动力/农作物总播种面积	正向
	耕地复种指数	农作物总播种面积/耕地面积	正向
减量	单位面积化肥施用量/g·m^-2	化肥施用量/农作物总播种面积	负向
	单位面积农药使用量/g·m^-2	农药使用量/农作物总播种面积	负向
	单位面积农膜使用量/g·m^-2	农膜使用量/农作物总播种面积	负向
	单位面积柴油使用量/g·m^-2	柴油使用量/农作物总播种面积	负向
增收	农村居民人均收入水平/元·人^-1	农村居民人均可支配收入	正向
	城乡居民收入水平对比	城镇居民人均可支配收入/农村居民人均可支配收入（农村居民=1）	负向
	农业财政投入水平	农林水支出/一般公共预算支出	正向

变量分类	变量名称	变量符号	样本量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
被解释变量	种植业高质量发展水平	HDP	372	0.305	0.064	0.158	0.502
核心解释变量	农业水价综合改革政策	WP	372	0.624	0.485	0.000	1.000
控制变量	耕地面积/10³ hm²	CLA	372	4272.913	3391.290	93.500	17195.400
	人均水资源量/m³·人^-1	AWR	372	6396.824	23365.040	51.890	145779.800
	第一产业增加值占地区生产总值比重/%	PPG	372	9.639	5.091	0.200	26.100
	地区生产总值/10⁸元	GDP	372	26947.130	23017.640	605.830	129118.600
	财政农林水事务财政支出/10⁸元	AFW	372	565.482	285.031	91.780	1359.300
	人均村庄道路桥梁建设投入/元·人^-1	PCC	372	212.229	158.939	28.936	1228.419

变量	lnHDP
变量	（1）	（2）
WP	0.030^**（0.012）	0.015^**（0.007）
控制变量	否	是
省份固定效应	是	是
年份固定效应	是	是
R²	0.890	0.942
N	372	372

变量	选择方程 WP	结果方程 lnHDP
IV	0.616^***（0.073）	-
WP	-	0.060^***（0.021）
控制变量	-	是
省份固定效应	是	是
年份固定效应	是	是
Wald chi²	36315.690^***
IMR	-0.027 [-0.050, -0.003]
Cragg-Donald Wald F	44.598^***
N	372

变量	lnHDP
	识别策略检验（1）	排除干扰政策影响		更换测度权重（4）	更换指标标准化方法（5）
	识别策略检验（1）	（2）	（3）	更换测度权重（4）	更换指标标准化方法（5）
WP	0.212^***（0.014）	0.010^**（0.007）	0.012^*（0.007）	29.621^*（13.969）	0.031^*（0.016）
节水型社会达标县区	-	-0.007（0.010）	-	-	-
农业水权交易	-	-	-0.045^***（0.016）	-	-
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是
省份固定效应	是	是	是	是	是
年份固定效应	是	是	是	是	是
R²	-	0.942	0.946	0.959	0.949
N	372	372	372	372	372