西北诸河流域土地利用变化及土地生态安全评估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.05.27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

运用ArcGIS空间分析,揭示了1990-2018年西北诸河流域土地利用动态变化特征,采用“压力-状态-响应”（Pressure-state-response,P-S-R）模型和熵权法对指标进行赋权,并分析了西北诸河流域土地生态安全状况。结果表明：（1）西北诸河流域2015-2018年综合土地利用动态度为2.65%,土地利用变化剧烈。2000年后城乡建设用地年平均单一动态度为4.16%,增长速度最快。草地主要向沙地、耕地和其他未利用土地转出,流域荒漠区沙地和其他未利用土地之间转换稳定。（2）西北诸河流域土地生态安全评价指标体系中状态层权重最高,为0.4985,由指标权重排序可知,经济社会发展、湿地面积和人口增长是影响西北诸河流域土地生态安全评价的重要因素。（3） 1990-2018年西北诸河流域土地生态安全指数呈递增趋势,1990-2014年基本处于不安全级,2015年后转变为较不安全级,西北诸河流域土地生态安全状况有所好转。本研究为西北诸河流域土地利用管理规划提供科学依据,为自然流域尺度的土地利用变化及土地生态安全性研究提供实例。

关键词: 西北诸河, 土地利用动态变化, 压力-状态-响应（P-S-R）模型, 综合评价法, 土地生态安全

Abstract:

Land is the most basic natural resource and is the material basis for human survival and development; change in land use/cover, as an important factor affecting global environmental change, is the most direct reflection of human activities. In the context of China’s rapid economic and social development, there is a competition between protecting the ecologically fragile nature of land and the huge demand for urban land development. A lack of attention to maintaining ecological land use and the irrational use of land resources are two factors that have exacerbated land ecological disorders. Therefore, exploring the dynamics of land use change and studying the state of regional land ecological security have become important research elements for regional sustainable development. The dynamic changes in land use and land ecological security have attracted widespread attention. This study uses the ArcGIS spatial analysis software to reveal the characteristics of dynamic land use change in the river basins of northwestern China from 1990 to 2018 and uses the pressure-state-response model and the entropy weighting method to assign weights to indicators and analyze the status of land ecological security in the river basins of northwestern China. The results of the study show that (1) the comprehensive land use change of the river basins of northwestern China from 2015 to 2018 is 2.65%, showing a drastic change in land use. The most rapid growth in a single annual average is observed in urban and rural construction land after 2000 with a change of 4.16%. Grassland is mainly replaced by sand, cropland, and other unused land, and the conversion between sand and other unused land in the desert areas of the basin is stable. (2) The highest weight of the state layer in the evaluation index system of land ecological security in the river basins of northwestern China is 0.4985. From the ranking of index weights, it can be seen that economic and social development, wetland area, and population growth are important factors affecting the evaluation of land ecological security of the river basins of northwestern China. (3) The land ecological safety index of the river basins of northwestern China showed an increase from 1990 to 2018, remained relatively constant at an unsafe level from 1990 to 2014, and decreased after 2015; the land ecological safety of the river basins of northwestern China has improved. The problem of land desertification is an important limiting factor to the healthy development of land ecosystems in the basin. In the process of improving land ecological security, more importance needs to be placed on the conversion of desert land to ecological land, and attention needs to be paid to the construction and maintenance of ecological land. This study investigates the dynamic changes in land use and land ecological security in the river basins of northwestern China, with the aim of providing a scientific basis for land use planning and management in the river basins of northwestern China. Furthermore, this work provides examples of land use changes and land ecological security studies at the natural watershed scale.

Key words: the river basins of northwestern China, dynamic changes of land use, pressure-state-response (P-S-R) model, comprehensive evaluation method, land ecological security

吴景全, 吴铭婉, 臧传富. 西北诸河流域土地利用变化及土地生态安全评估[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(5): 1471-1482.

WU Jingquan, WU Mingwan, ZANG Chuanfu. Land use change and land ecological security assessment in the river basins of northwestern China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(5): 1471-1482.

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目标层	准则层	权重	指标层	单位	安全趋势	权重	权重排序
西北诸河流域土地生态安全评价指标体系	压力（P）	0.2331	总人口数	10⁴人	负向	0.0463	5
			人口密度	人·km^-2	负向	0.0120	27
			工业废水排放量	10⁴ t	负向	0.0293	12
			工业固体废物产生量	10⁴ t	负向	0.0422	8
			农用化肥施用量	10⁴ t	负向	0.0431	6
			农药使用量	t	负向	0.0374	10
			城镇登记失业率	%	负向	0.0227	21
	状态（S）	0.4985	水土流失面积	km²	负向	0.0277	13
			第一产业增加值	10⁸元	负向	0.0397	9
			第二产业增加值	10⁸元	负向	0.0428	7
			第三产业增加值	10⁸元	正向	0.0273	14
			农业总产值	10⁴元	正向	0.0216	23
			人均耕地面积	km²·人^-1	正向	0.0659	2
			国内生产总值（GDP）	10⁸元	正向	0.1486	1
			城镇化率	%	正向	0.0247	18
			城市供水总量	10⁴ t	正向	0.0115	28
			森林覆盖率	%	正向	0.0266	16
			湿地面积	km²	正向	0.0621	3
	响应（R）	0.2684	人均GDP	元·人^-1	正向	0.0252	17
			人均粮食产量	kg·人^-1	正向	0.0213	24
			社会消费品零售总额	10⁴元	正向	0.0273	15
			固定资产投资额	10⁴元	正向	0.0339	11
			城市生活垃圾清运量	10⁴ t	正向	0.0097	29
			农民人均纯收入	元	正向	0.0245	19
			有效灌溉面积	km²	正向	0.0178	25
			人工造林面积	km²	正向	0.0227	22
			教育占财政支出比重	%	正向	0.0475	4
			城市污水处理率	%	正向	0.0245	20
			水土流失治理面积	km²	正向	0.0141	26

1990年	2018年
1990年	草地	城乡建设用地	耕地	林地	其他未利用土地	沙地	水域	减少量
草地	914114	3398	38442	26672	344630	53434	31607	1412297
城乡建设用地	986	2145	2858	137	519	27	111	6783
耕地	13281	4374	75035	1731	2086	354	809	97670
林地	23410	239	3267	20148	2792	1043	603	51502
其他未利用土地	192445	2773	12976	4780	907991	23386	19712	1164063
沙地	20303	219	2717	633	26291	467289	962	518414
水域	13937	152	971	586	25004	680	57605	98935
增加量	1178476	13300	136266	54687	1309313	546213	111409	-

年份	生态安全指数	压力指数	状态指数	响应指数	安全等级	安全状态
1990	0.301	0.187	0.104	0.010	U	不安全级
1991	0.293	0.182	0.103	0.009	U	不安全级
1992	0.307	0.189	0.103	0.014	U	不安全级
1993	0.322	0.204	0.103	0.015	U	不安全级
1994	0.318	0.196	0.104	0.017	U	不安全级
1995	0.314	0.189	0.107	0.017	U	不安全级
1996	0.314	0.178	0.110	0.026	U	不安全级
1997	0.319	0.180	0.112	0.027	U	不安全级
1998	0.320	0.177	0.110	0.033	U	不安全级
1999	0.320	0.177	0.109	0.033	U	不安全级
2000	0.304	0.173	0.095	0.035	U	不安全级
2001	0.285	0.155	0.092	0.037	U	不安全级
2002	0.309	0.160	0.094	0.054	U	不安全级
2003	0.313	0.161	0.088	0.064	U	不安全级
2004	0.310	0.150	0.100	0.060	U	不安全级
2005	0.304	0.137	0.109	0.058	U	不安全级
2006	0.308	0.131	0.111	0.066	U	不安全级
2007	0.459	0.123	0.258	0.077	RU	较不安全级
2008	0.312	0.109	0.112	0.092	U	不安全级
2009	0.325	0.102	0.120	0.102	U	不安全级
2010	0.351	0.080	0.122	0.149	U	不安全级
2011	0.297	0.060	0.111	0.126	U	不安全级
2012	0.317	0.067	0.110	0.140	U	不安全级
2013	0.434	0.055	0.224	0.155	RU	较不安全级
2014	0.366	0.039	0.163	0.164	U	不安全级
2015	0.405	0.051	0.178	0.176	RU	较不安全级
2016	0.436	0.062	0.185	0.189	RU	较不安全级
2017	0.455	0.065	0.188	0.202	RU	较不安全级
2018	0.467	0.072	0.180	0.215	RU	较不安全级