2017—2022年中国出口地域与商品结构依赖的全球变化

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.332

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“世纪疫情”事实上配合了美西方以“价值链脱钩”来阻碍中国经济权力强化与维持自身霸主地位的战略意图，客观上对中国出口造成了巨大压力。针对已有研究的不足，选取2017—2022年有商品编码的省际-国家/地区出口数据，使用地理集中度、出口市场多元化指数、出口分解专业化区位熵等方法对2017—2022年中国出口依赖全球变化进行分析。结果表明：（1）西方地缘政治竞争逻辑在经济领域的蔓延确实加速了近年来中国出口依赖的全球变化，中国对传统发达经济体的出口呈现“高而不稳”的态势，但中国核心出口源地仍显示出对其高度依赖性，它们仍是中国出口的最主要市场。（2）四大商品出口集中程度基本符合“资源>技术>劳动>资本”的特征，出口非均衡专业化程度整体呈现“资源>劳动>技术>资本”的格局。东南亚等新兴市场国家以及欧洲国家分别提供的出口扩展边际贡献和出口集约边际贡献，驱动技术密集型出口实现较为明显的市场分散。尽管在时间尺度上，四大商品出口目的地分布正趋于均衡，但显然多数西部省份的出口更加依赖于少数目的地和资源密集型商品，存在更大的依赖性风险。出口通道建设、产业结构升级与技术关联发展对于西部降低出口风险与重构出口竞争格局至关重要。

关键词: 出口依赖, 地域依赖, 商品结构依赖, 全球变化

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic aligns with the strategic intentions of the United States and the West to decouple and disrupt industrial and supply chains, aiming to hinder China’s economic rise and maintain their own hegemony, thereby exerting significant pressure on China’s exports. To address gaps in existing research, this study analyzes global changes in China’s export dependence using inter-provincial, international, and regional export data (HS-2-digit commodity codes) from 2017 to 2022. Methods such as geographic concentration, market variety index, and export specialization location entropy were employed, incorporating both geographic and commodity structure dependence. The findings revealed the following: (1) Endogenous factors, such as factor structure adjustment, industrial upgrading, and changes in comparative advantage, drive export dependence. Additionally, the spread of Western geopolitical competition in the economic sphere has, to some extent, accelerated shifts in China’s global export dependence in recent years. China’s exports to traditional developed economies show a high but unstable trend. However, strong inter-provincial and international export linkages indicate that these markets remain critical to China’s export sources. (2) Export concentration for four commodity groups follows this order: “resources>technology>labor>capital”. The overall pattern of export specialization is “resources>labor>technology>capital”. Although the geographical concentration of technology-intensive exports remains high, emerging markets, particularly Southeast Asia and European countries, have remarkably contributed to export growth and market diversification. Over time, export destinations for these commodities are becoming more balanced, although most western provinces of China remain heavily dependent on a few destinations and resource-intensive exports, posing greater risks. Developing export corridors, upgrading industrial structures, and fostering technological linkages are crucial for western provinces to mitigate export risks and restructure competitive export patterns.

Key words: export dependence, geographic dependence, commodity structure dependence, global changes

陈浩冉, 杨永春. 2017—2022年中国出口地域与商品结构依赖的全球变化[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(2): 345-356.

CHEN Haoran, YANG Yongchun. Global changes in China’s geographic and commodity structure dependence on exports from 2017 to 2022[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(2): 345-356.

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数据来源	数据内容	数据处理
中国海关贸易数据库	中国省域-国家/地区分商品类别的出口数据	参照陈万灵等^[22]的方法，将HS-2位数编码的商品类别整理为资源密集型、劳动密集型、资本密集型、技术密集型4种类型
联合国商品贸易数据库	中国-国家/地区分商品类别的出口数据	参照陈万灵等^[22]的方法，将HS-2位数编码的商品类别整理为资源密集型、劳动密集型、资本密集型、技术密集型4种类型
贸易外经统计年鉴	中国-国家/地区总出口金额、世界大区划分依据	将出口目的地划分为欧洲西部、欧洲东部（含外高加索三国）、北美、拉美、非洲、中东地区、中亚（含阿富汗）、南亚、东南亚、东亚、大洋洲等大区，将国家/地区出口数据汇总到以上大区

年份	商品类型	最强联系排名前五的联系对
2017	资源密集型	广东-香港	北京-新加坡	广东-美国	山东-日本	北京-香港
	劳动密集型	广东-美国	浙江-美国	江苏-美国	广东-香港	福建-美国
	资本密集型	广东-香港	江苏-美国	广东-美国	上海-美国	浙江-美国
	技术密集型	广东-香港	广东-美国	江苏-美国	江苏-香港	广东-韩国
2022	资源密集型	广东-香港	山东-日本	北京-香港	北京-新加坡	北京-菲律宾
	劳动密集型	广东-美国	浙江-美国	江苏-美国	山东-美国	福建-美国
	资本密集型	江苏-美国	广东-香港	广东-美国	浙江-美国	上海-美国
	技术密集型	广东-香港	广东-美国	江苏-香港	江苏-美国	河南-美国