Collect ｜ Homepage Advertisement ｜ Contact us ｜ Message
Adv. search

Arid Land Geography >

2020 , Vol. 43 >Issue 2: 349 - 359

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.02.08

Spatiotemporal distributions of temperature,precipitation,evapotranspiration,and drought in the Indus River Basin

Expand

  • 1 Collaboration Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/ Institute for Disaster Risk Management/

    School of Geography Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu,China;

    2 National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;

    3 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China

Received date: 2019-05-02

  Revised date: 2019-08-28

  Online published: 2020-03-25

Fold

Abstract

Supported by temperature and precipitation observations from 54 groundbased stations in the Indus River Basin and surrounding areas, we used Climate Research Unit temperature and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation global land surface reanalysis datasets to construct a new gridded monthly dataset covering the entire Indus River Basin.This dataset achieved a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° for 1980-2016.We derived potential evapotranspiration values with the Thornthwaite model in order to further analyze the drought characteristics in the basin according to the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index.Our results revealed that the areal averaged annual mean temperatures increased significantly between 1980 and 2016, with a rate of 0.30 ℃ ·(10 a)-1.The most obvious increase occurred in the early 21st century.On a seasonal timescale, the observed increase was much faster in the dry season (NovemberApril; 0.36 ℃ ·(10 a)-1) than it was in the wet season (MayOctober; 0.25 ℃ ·(10 a)-1).Unlike the monotonic increase observed for temperature, annual precipitation revealed a decadal oscillation.Driven by the persistent warming, annual and seasonal potential evapotranspiration rates have increased significantly.We also detected that drought frequency showed decadal fluctuations similar to those of precipitation patterns.Drought was more common in the dry season, but drought intensity is higher in the wet season.Meanwhile, the extent of drought-stricken areas experienced a weak increasing trend in the dry season, but a slight decrease in the wet season.Spatially, the 1980-2016 increases in seasonal and annual temperature and potential evapotranspiration were significant at a 95% confidence level throughout the Indus River Basin, except for a small fraction in the northwestern portion of the region.Warming was sharpest in the southern plain and the northeastern mountain regions, while potential evapotranspiration rose particularly quickly in the southern plain.Over the same period, annual and wetseason precipitation along the southeast-to-orthwest belt from New Delhi to Kabul increased significantly, as did dry-season precipitation around Kabul.We detected a significant drying trend during the dry season for the southeastern plain and for some parts of the northeastern mountain region.When combined with the drying that we saw during the wet season for the northeastern and southwestern mountain regions, our results signal the importance of strengthening our preparation for climate-related disaster prevention.Effective countermeasures need to be identified and implemented in order to mitigate the adverse effects of continued drought intensification.

Key words： temperature, precipitation; evapotranspiration; drought; spatiotemporal variations; Indus River Basin

Cite this article

ZHAO Jian-ting, WANG Yan-jun, SU Bu-da, TAO Hui, JIANG Tong .

Spatiotemporal distributions of temperature,precipitation,evapotranspiration,and drought in the Indus River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020 , 43(2) : 349 -359 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.02.08

References

［1］Special report on global warming of 1.5℃［R］.Incheon,South Korea:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),2018. ［2］DAI A.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models ［J］.Nature Climate Change,2013,3(1):52. ［3］TRENBERTH K E,DAI A,VAN DER SCHRIER G,et al.Global warming and changes in drought［J］.Nature Climate Change,2014,4(1):17. ［4］SU B,HUANG J,FISCHER T,et al.Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming［J］.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2018,115(42):10600-10605. ［5］UNEP ［United Nations Environment Programme］.UNEP sourcebook integrating adaptation to climate change into UNEP programming ［M］.Nairobi,Kenya:UNEP,2008. ［6］SU B,HUANG J,GEMMER M,et al.Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for projected changes of climate in the Indus River Basin［J］.Atmospheric Research,2016,178:138-149. ［7］JIANG T,FISCHER T,LU X.Larger Asian rivers:Climate,hydrology and ecosystems［J］.Quaternary International,2011,244:127-129. ［8］HUANG J,WANG Y,FISCHER T,et al.Simulation and projection of climatic changes in the Indus River Basin,using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM［J］.International Journal of Climatology,2017,37(5):2545-2562. ［9］B-HNER J,LUCARINI V.Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya,upper Indus Basin［J］.Earth System Dynamics,2017,8:337-355. ［10］IMMERZEEL W W,VAN BEEK L P H,BIERKENS M F P.Climate change will affect the Asian water towers［J］.Science,2010,328(5984):1382-1385. ［11］TELESCA L,VICENTESERRANO S M,LPEZMORENO J I.Power spectral characteristics of drought indices in the Ebro River Basin at different temporal scales［J］.Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2013,27(5):1155-1170. ［12］MIYAN M A.Droughts in Asian least developed countries:Vulnerability and sustainability［J］.Weather and Climate Extremes,2015,7:8-23. ［13］PARIDA B R,OINAM B.Unprecedented drought in north east India compared to western India［J］.Current Science,2015,109,2121-2126. ［14］陈亚宁，杨青，罗毅，等.西北干旱区水资源问题研究思考［J］.干旱区地理,2012,35(1):1-9.［CHEN Yaning,YANG Qing,LUO Yi,et al.Ponder on the issues of water resources in the arid region of northwest China［J］.Arid Land Geography,2012,35(1):1-9.］ ［15］姚海娇,周宏飞.中亚五国咸海流域水资源策略的博弈分析［J］.干旱区地理,2013,36(4):764-771.［YAO Haijiao,ZHOU Hongfei.Game analysis of water resources strategy among the Central Asia countries around the Aral Sea Basin［J］.Arid Land Geography,2013,36(4):764-771］ ［16］KHATTAK S,BABEL M S,SHARIF M.Hydro-meteorological trends in the upper Indus River Basin in Pakistan［J］.Climate Research,2011,46(2):103-119. ［17］AHMAD W,FATIMA A,AWAN U K,et al.Analysis of long term meteorological trends in the middle and lower Indus Basin of Pakistan:A non-parametric statistical approach［J］.Global and Planetary Change,2014,122:282-291. ［18］KHAN N,SHAHID S,BIN ISMAIL T,et al.Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan［J］.Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2018:1-15. ［19］ULLAH S,YOU Q,ALI A,et al.Observed changes in maximum and minimum temperatures over China-Pakistan economic corridor during 1980-2016［J］.Atmospheric Research,2019,216:37-51. ［20］ULLAH S,YOU Q,ULLAH W,et al.Observed changes in precipitation in ChinaPakistan economic corridor during 1980-2016［J］.Atmospheric Research,2018,210:1-14. ［21］ANJUM S A,SALEEM M F,CHEEMA M A,et al.An assessment to vulnerability,extent,characteristics and severity of drought hazard in Pakistan［J］.Pakistan Journal of Science,2012,64(2):138. ［22］KHATRI-CHHETRI A,AGGARWAL P K.Assessment of large seed banks requirement for drought risk management in South Asia［J］.Sustainability,2017,9(11):1901. ［23］WEN S,WANG A,TAO H,et al.Population exposed to drought under the 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming in the Indus River Basin［J］.Atmospheric Research,2019,218:296-305. ［24］VICENTE-SERRANO S M,BEGUERIA S,LOPEZ-MORENO J I.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index［J］.Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1696-1718. ［25］HASSON S,LUCARINI V,KHAN M R,et al.Early 21st century snow cover state over the western river basins of the Indus River system［J］.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014,18:4077-4100. ［26］杨金虎,江志红,王鹏祥,等.中国年极端降水事件的时空分布特征［J］.气候与环境研究,2008,13(1):75-83.［YANG Jinhu,JIANG Zhihong,WANG Pengxian,et al.Temporal and spatial characteristic of extreme precipitation event in China［J］.Climatic and Environmental Research,2008,13(1):75-83.］ ［27］任芝花,余予,邹凤玲,等.部分地面要素历史基础气象资料质量检测［J］.应用气象学报,2012,23(6):739-747.［REN Zhihua,YU Yu,ZOU Fengling,et al.Quality detection of surface historical basic meteorological data［J］.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2012,23(6):739-747.］ ［28］PFEFFER W T,ARENDT A A,BLISS A,et al.The Randolph Glacier Inventory:A globally complete inventory of glaciers［J］.Journal of Glaciology,2014,60(221):537-552. ［29］TAHIR A A,CHEVALLIER P,ARNAUD Y,et al.Snow cover trend and hydrological characteristics of the Astore River Basin (Western Himalayas) and its comparison to the Hunza Basin (Karakoram region)［J］.Science of the Total Environment,2015,505:748-761. ［30］SHARIF M,ARCHER D R,FOWLER H J,et al.Trends in timing and magnitude of flow in the Upper Indus Basin［J］.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2013,17(4):1503-1516. ［31］HARRIS I,JONES P D,OSBORN T J,et al.Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations-the CRUTS 3.10 Dataset［J］.International Journal of Climatology,2014,34(3):623-642. ［32］SCHNEIDER U,BECKER A,FINGER P,et al.GPCC full data monthly product version 2018 at 0.5°:Monthly landsurface precipitation from rain-gauges built on GTS-based and historical data［J］.Deutscher Wetterdienst:Offenbach am Main,Germany,2018. ［33］MILLY P C D,DUNNE K A.Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying［J］.Nature Climate Change,2016,6(10):946. ［34］THORNTHWAITE C W.An approach toward a rational classification of climate［J］.Geographical Review,1948,38(1):55-94. ［35］DAI A.Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index during 1900-2008［J］.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2011,116(D12). ［36］ZHAI J,HUANG J,SU B,et al.Intensity-area-duration analysis of droughts in China 1960-2013［J］.Climate dynamics,2017,48(1-2):151-168. ［37］HUANG J,ZHAI J,JIANG T,et al.Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM［J］.Climate Dynamics,2018,50(1-2):507-525. ［38］FISCHER T,GEMMER M,SU B,et al.Hydrological long-term dry and wet periods in the Xijiang River Basin,south China［J］.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2013,17(1):135-148. ［39］TAO H,BORTH H,FRAEDRICH K,et al.Drought and wetness variability in the Tarim River Basin and connection to large scale atmospheric circulation［J］.International Journal of Climatology,2014,34(8):2678-2684. ［40］BEGUER-A S,VICENTE-SERRANO S M,REIG F,et al.Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited:Parameter fitting,evapotranspiration models,tools,datasets and drought monitoring［J］.International Journal of Climatology,2014,34(10):3001-3023. ［41］MCKEE T B,DOESKEN N J,KLEIST J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales［C］//Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology.Boston,MA:American Meteorological Society,1993,17(22):179-183.[JP] ［42］CHEN H,SUN J.Changes in drought characteristics over China using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index［J］.Journal of Climate,2015,28(13):5430-5447. ［43］DUETHMANN D,BOLCH T,FARINOTTI D,et al.Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt-dominated catchments of the Tarim River,Central Asia［J］.Water Resources Research,2015,51(6):4727-4750. ［44］HARTMANN H,ANDRESKY L.Flooding in the Indus River basin:A spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation records［J］.Global and Planetary Change,2013,107(4):25-35.
Options
Outlines

/

〈 〉