Analysis and prediction of household carbon emission in northwest China
Received date: 2019-04-09
Revised date: 2019-07-17
Online published: 2019-09-19
The economic development, living standard of residents and carbon emissions in Northwest China are lower than the national average.However,with the favorable policies the economic development is being improved and the household living standard is gradually raised up which will lead to an increase of the residents living carbon emissions,and the emission pattern will also be affected.This is detrimental to the fragile ecological environment of the Northwest China.At present,most of the researches on residents’ carbon emissions are focused on the eastern and southern regions of China where there are frequent and significant human activities and high carbon emissions,and less attention has been paid to the northwest region,but the increase of carbon emissions and the increase of environmental costs have a more far-reaching impact on the less developed areas.In addition,when researchers pay attention to the prediction of residents’ carbon emissions,they usually focus on the quantitative prediction and ignore the spatial pattern prediction,which is not conducive to the coordinated development between regions.Based on the data of energy consumption and consumption expenditure in the five provinces of Northwest China,including Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia and Xinjiang from 1997 to 2016,this paper firstly used the direct coefficient method to measure the residents’ direct carbon emissions,and the input-output method to calculate the indirect carbon emissions of the residents and analyzes the present situation of residents’ carbon emissions in the northwest region.Secondly,based on standard deviation ellipse and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model,the carbon emissions of residents in Northwest China were predicted in terms of quantity and spatial pattern from 2017 to 2021.Major results are listed as follows: From 1997 to 2016,household carbon emissions in Northwest China showed a rising trend with an initial slow pace followed by a quick pace.The direct carbon emissions were stabilized in the range from 0.3×108 t to 0.4×108 t,and the indirect carbon emissions reached 2.38×108 t.The spatial distribution of household carbon emissions in Northwest China was generally steady with a direction pattern from northwest to southeast.And the moving trend of standard deviation ellipse was from northwest to southeast to northwest,and the center of standard deviation ellipse moved around the point of (99.07°E,38.19°N).From 2017 to 2021,the direct household carbon emissions in Northwest China reach to 0.543×108 t and the indirect carbon emissions are 3.631×108 t by 2021.With the development of the western region in China and the promotion of poverty alleviation,Xinjiang Province had a lower emission than Shaanxi,but it had the higher growth rate than Shaanxi.These factors are all driving the main areas of carbon emission northwestward.The purpose of this paper is to recommend how to coordinate between the population and consumption and the environment,leading citizens to establish the value of low-carbon consumption.
