Prediction of habitat quality in the Ili River Valley under the influence of human activities and climate change
Received date: 2023-06-11
Revised date: 2023-07-06
Online published: 2024-01-26
Habitat quality is critical for ecosystem service function and overall health. Accurate prediction of its evolution is essential for fostering high-quality regional ecosystem development. This study employed the system dynamic patch-generating land use simulation (SD-PLUS) model and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to forecast land pattern changes, and evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution of habitat quality in the Ili River Valley under diverse 2035 climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The findings are as follows: (1) From 1980 to 2020, Ili River Valley land use exhibited a “four increase and two decrease” trend. In 2035, under the four climate scenarios, forest and grassland areas in the Ili River Valley will decrease, with a noticeable trend of construction land expansion, leading to the displacement of high-quality arable land in the suburbs. (2) Habitat quality in the Ili River Valley correlates closely with land use/cover type. High- and higher-value habitat areas are primarily scattered in rugged forest and grassland cover areas. Low- and lower-value areas are mainly concentrated in areas with concentrated human activities and unused land cover areas in the north and south Tianshan Mountains. (3) From 1980 to 2020, the habitat quality in the Ili River Valley exhibited a declining trend, particularly in areas near the Ili-Kunes River and Tekes River Basins. (4) The habitat index of the Ili River Valley is projected to decrease under the four climate scenarios in 2035, with the mean value following the order: SSP1-2.6>SSP2-4.5>SSP3-7.0>SSP5-8.5. Notably, habitat quality in Yining City, border ports, and agricultural and livestock bases is at risk of degradation. In conclusion, the results of this study provide valuable insights for developing ecological restoration policies in the Ili River Valley region and offer innovative ideas for predicting habitat quality in arid and semi-arid areas.
Lu SUI , Zhiming YAN , Kaifang LI , Peien HE , Yingjie MA , Rucui ZHANG . Prediction of habitat quality in the Ili River Valley under the influence of human activities and climate change[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024 , 47(1) : 104 -116 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.275
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