Response and prediction of runoff to climate change in the headwaters of the Bortala River
Received date: 2022-10-24
Revised date: 2022-12-14
Online published: 2023-09-28
Glacial runoff is a major component of runoff in the northwest arid zone of China. Understanding the impact of climate change on glacial runoff is crucial, but few studies have been conducted in this field of study in the Bortala River Basin, Xinjiang, China. In this paper, we present the glacier module that was added to the SWAT model and used to simulate monthly runoff in the headwater area of the upper Bortala River Basin. We successfully simulated monthly runoff at the Wenquan hydrological station during the period 1972—2018. Further, we investigated the impact of future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for 2020—2050, based on CMIP5 climate data) on glacier runoff. The model was able to accurately simulate changes in the source area’s runoff process. The results showed that: For the whole simulation period, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 0.82, the percent bias was -3.22%, the ratio of root mean square error to standard deviation of measured value was 0.42, and the coefficient of determination was 0.84, thus allowing the model to be rated as “excellent”. Increasing runoff trends were identified in the simulations of both future climate scenarios, with total runoff increases of 0.31×108 m3·(10a)-1 and 0.40×108 m3·(10a)-1 and increases in the percentage of glacial runoff of 4.84% and 9.38%, respectively, when compared with the historical period, in which the glacial runoff percentage was 27.61%. These increases in glacial runoff percentage are the main causes of the increases in runoff volume. Correlation analysis revealed that as the temperature increases, glacier ablation advances and accelerates, and glacier accumulation time decreases, leading to further future shrinking of glacier area. The study provides a basis for making changes to historical hydrological information, exploring future evolutionary trends, and mitigating potential climate change risks in the region.
Haowei TIAN , Fulong CHEN , Aihua LONG , Jing LIU , Yang HAI . Response and prediction of runoff to climate change in the headwaters of the Bortala River[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023 , 46(9) : 1432 -1442 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.555
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