水资源承载力的定量评估是确保干旱地区水资源可持续利用的关键前提。选取我国最大的内陆干旱区流域--塔里木河流域为研究区域,结合其特殊的地理环境和供水与需水特征,构建系统动力学模型,基于实地调研、统计年鉴与水资源公报数据,以水资源红线为约束,对塔里木河流域水资源承载力的历史状况与未来趋势进行了定量评估和预测。结果显示：塔里木河流域及其所属各地（州）历史期内（2008-2016年）水资源均呈现轻度超载状态,且在未来（2017-2030年）将进一步加剧。在当前的政策背景下,如使该区水资源于2030年达到可承载的状态,则需在该地区扩大农业节水设施建设规模并着力发展农业节水灌溉技术,并力争在2030年实现灌溉用水定额达到5.70×10³ m³·hm^-2以下,农业灌溉面积降低至2.60×10⁶ hm²以下。同时,农业节水与产业转型应是该地区未来社会经济发展的2个需要重点考虑的方向。

Assessing the carrying capacity of water resources is a central issue in water resources research. However, there is still debate about how to assess the carrying capacity of water resources. Most of the studies assessing the water resource carrying capacity of the Tarim Rvier Basin, Xinjiang, China have been based on empirical methods. However, few studies have used system dynamics models to assess the carrying capacity of water resources in the Tarim River Basin. This study constructed a systematic dynamic model for calculating the historical and future carrying capacity of the water resources in the Tarim River Basin. The dataset of this study is an authoritative dataset from the Statistical Yearbook and Bulletin on Water Resources in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The results indicate that the water resources of the Tarim River Basin exceeded carrying capacity during the historical period (2008-2016). From 2008 to 2016, the yield of water above the red line of water consumption was almost 10% of the red line of water consumption in the Tarim River Basin. According to socio-economic development trends, the water resources of the Tarim River Basin will remarkably exceed their water resource carrying capacity in the future (2020-2030). The yield of water above the red line of water consumption will be almost 32% of the red line of water consumption in the Tarim River Basin in 2030. In response to the needs of sustainable socio-economic development and water resource utilization, the water resources of the Tarim River Basin will gradually meet their water resource carrying capacity in the future (2020-2030). The water yield below the red line of water consumption will almost be 9% of the red line of water consumption in the Tarim River Basin in 2030. Given that the water resources of the Tarim River Basin do not exceed theirs water resource carrying capacity, the agricultural irrigation quota must be limited to less than 5.70×10³ m³·hm^-2 in 2030. The irrigated area should be limited to less than 2.60×10⁶ hm². The agricultural irrigation quota of 5.7×10³ m³·hm^-2 is slightly higher than the level of Israel, corresponding to the agricultural irrigation quota of 5.25×10³ m³·hm^-2. In the context of sustainable use of water resources in the Tarim River Basin, this study suggests that more agricultural water-saving facilities and irrigation technologies should be popularized. For example, drip irrigation technology should be used to irrigate farmlands in the Tarim River Basin. The water consumption of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the secondary and service industries is much lower than the GDP water consumption of industrial agriculture and water-saving agriculture. Structural adjustment of the planting industry needs to be pre-developed in the Tarim River Basin in the future. There is a need to accelerate the transformation of the Tarim River Basin industry and increase GDP, which accounts for the secondary and service industries. Therefore, the service and the secondary industries must be the pillar industries of the Tarim River Basin. This study also suggests that the Tarim River Basin should maintain a rapid growth trend in the industrial and service sector over the next decade. This can accelerate the development of the service industry, promote the economic development of the region, and reduce the dependence on water resources.