草原火灾是牧区主要自然灾害之一,严重影响社会经济和生命安全。针对蒙古高原草原的特点及成灾机理,以蒙古高原的草原区作为研究区,获取了2000—2016年各盟市的指标层数据,依据自然灾害风险分析原理,从危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4个方面选取23个评价指标,建立了蒙古高原草原火灾风险评价指标体系,并采用主成分分析方法确定指标权重,结合地理信息系统空间分析功能制作了蒙古高原草原火灾风险分布图。结果表明：（1） 通过主成分分析得到7个主成分,缩减了指标个数,准确指出草原火灾风险要素来源。（2） 蒙古高原草原火灾的高危险区分布在蒙古国中部,呈向四周递减的趋势;高暴露区分布在内蒙古东北部地区;高脆弱区分布在内蒙古北部以及蒙古国肯特省;高防灾减灾区主要分布在内蒙古呼伦贝尔市、兴安盟和鄂尔多斯市。（3） 蒙古高原草原火灾风险从整体来看,内蒙古东北部风险高于西部地区,呈现自东向西递减趋势;蒙古国呈现由中间向四周递减趋势。低风险、次低风险、中风险、次高风险和高风险区面积占蒙古高原草原区面积比例分别为4.88%、36.20%、28.37%、11.56%和18.99%。根据中蒙各盟市地理环境特征和经济发展水平来制定防火策略,可以降低草原火灾风险性,为草原畜牧业可持续发展规划提供参考。

Grassland fires are a major type of natural disaster in pastoral areas and can seriously affect their socioeconomic security and physical safety. To assess the risk of grassland fire on the Mongolian Plateau, index layer data of each league and city were obtained from 2000 to 2016. Then, a risk assessment index system for grassland fire on the Mongolian Plateau was screened and constructed according to four risk elements of natural disasters: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and prevention/mitigation capability. The index weight was determined through principal component analysis, and a fire risk distribution map of Mongolian Plateau grassland was generated by using the spatial analysis function of a geographic information system. The results were as follows. (1) The principal component analysis obtained seven principal components, which reduced the number of indices and accurately identified the risk factors of grassland fire sources. (2) Areas with a high hazard of grassland fire were distributed in the central part of Mongolia, and the hazard decreased in the surrounding areas. Areas with high exposure were distributed in the northeastern part of Inner Mongolia. Areas with high vulnerability were distributed in the northern part of Inner Mongolia and Kent Province of Mongolia. Areas with strong disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities were mainly distributed in Hulunbuir City, the Xing’an League, and Ordos City of Inner Mongolia. (3) Generally, the northeastern part of Inner Mongolia had a higher risk of grassland fire than the western part, and the risk decreased from east to west and from the center of Mongolia to the surrounding areas. Low-risk, semi-low-risk, medium-risk, semi-high-risk, and high-risk areas accounted for 4.86%, 36.20%, 28.37%, 11.56%, and 18.99%, respectively, of the grassland area of the Mongolian Plateau. On the basis of the geographical environment characteristics and economic development level of each league and city in China and Mongolia, fire prevention strategies can be devised to reduce the risk of grassland fire and guide the sustainable development of grassland animal husbandry.