基于1973—2015年努尔苏丹市和阿科尔镇逐日气温数据,以及努尔苏丹2000—2015年城市发展数据,采用回归分析、七点二次平滑、Mann-Kendall突变检验、滑动T检验等分析方法研究了该区域气温和城市热岛强度的变化特征及成因。结果表明：（1） 在同期北半球和中亚地区气温显著增长的大背景下,努尔苏丹年平均气温并无显著变化,气温受全球变化的影响主要表现在气温的两极化加剧上;（2） 受冬季热岛强度减弱的影响,努尔苏丹年平均热岛强度呈现显著减弱趋势,而冬季热岛强度的减弱主要受对比站冬季气温变化影响,其次与努尔苏丹城市发展也有一定的关联。

Nur-Sultan is the capital of Kazakhstan, located in the arid and semi-arid grassland areas of northern Kazakhstan. The city has a harsh climate and is one of the coldest capitals in the world. Nur-Sultan has developed rapidly from a small town with fewer than 40000 people to an international metropolis with a population of one million. In the context of global climate change, the arid zone is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and human activities. An investigation of the temperature changes and urban heat island effect in Nur-Sultan can be used to examine the impact of urbanization on urban climate change in arid regions. Moreover, typical cases and research results can provide a scientific basis for the future urban construction of Nur-Sultan and develop strategies to adapt to climate change. On the other hand, although most studies investigated the climate change and national development status of Central Asia or Kazakhstan, there are few reports on the effects of climate change and urban heat islands before and after the relocation of Nur-Sultan. This study is based on the daily temperature data of Nur-Sultan City and Akkol Town from 1973 to 2015, and the urban development data of Nur-Sultan City from 2000 to 2015. Regression analysis, seven-point quadratic smoothing, sliding T-test, Mann-Kendall mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis, and other methods were used to study the characteristics and causes of the regional temperature changes and the urban heat island intensity. The results showed that the annual average temperature of Nur-Sultan did not change significantly under the background of a significant increase in temperature of the Northern Hemisphere and Central Asia during the same period, but there were significant changes in the annual average maximum, minimum temperature, and daily temperature range. Moreover, the impact of temperature changes under globalization was manifested mainly in the increased polarization. The annual average heat island intensity of Nur-Sultan showed a significant weakening trend because of the weakening of the winter heat island intensity. In contrast, the weakening of the winter heat island intensity was affected mainly by the change in winter temperature at the comparison station. This was attributed to the urban development of Nur-Sultan.