收藏 ｜ 设为首页 广告服务 ｜ 联系我们 ｜ 在线留言
高级检索

干旱区地理 >

2020 , Vol. 43 >Issue 2: 371 - 379

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.02.10

气候与水文

4种干旱判别指数在东北地区适用性分析

展开

  • 1 辽宁省气象局财务核算中心，辽宁 沈阳 110000；

    2 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院，四川 成都 610225；

    3 辽宁省本溪市桓仁满族自治县气象局，辽宁 本溪 117200；

    4 江西省气候中心，江西 南昌 330096； 5 民航东北地区空中交通管理局气象中心，辽宁 沈阳 110043； 6 沈阳区域气候中心，辽宁 沈阳 110000

冯冬蕾（1991-），女，助理工程师，研究生，研究方向为主要从事气候变化分析与诊断.E-mail：979263725@qq.com

收稿日期: 2019-03-07

  修回日期: 2019-07-02

  网络出版日期: 2020-03-25

基金资助

国家科技基础资源调查专项（2017FY100903）；国家电网公司总部科技项目（NYB17201800148）资助

收起

Applicability analysis of four drought indexes in northeast China

Expand

  • 1 Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau Financial Accounting Centre,Shenyang 110000,Liaoning,China

    2 Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,Sichuan,China

    3 Huanren Manchu Autonomous County Meteorological Bureau of Benxi,Benxi 117200,Liaoning,China

    4 Jiangxi Provincial Climate Center,Nanchang 330096,Jiangxi,China

    5 Northeast Air Traffic Management Bureau of CAAC,Shenyang 110043,Liaoning,China 6 Shenyang Regional Climate Centre,Shenyang 110000,Liaoning,China

Received date: 2019-03-07

  Revised date: 2019-07-02

  Online published: 2020-03-25

Fold

摘要

利用东北地区207个国家基本气象站1961—2014年气象数据，计算改进后的综合气象干旱指数（MCI）、相对湿润度指数（MI）、标准化降水指数（SPI）以及标准化权重降水指数（SPIW）这4种常见的干旱指数，对比分析其在该区域的适用性，结果表明：在东北地区，4种气象干旱指数判断历年干旱持续天数及干旱过程强度的演变趋势基本一致；在干旱影响范围方面，SPI和SPIW指数对较长时间的干旱过程判别效果不佳，MCI指数能够较好的反应各时间尺度干旱过程的影响范围。在空间分布方面，SPI和SPIW指数无明显经向分布特征，MCI和MI指数的空间分布特征基本一致，呈现经向分布特征，干旱过程强度及干旱过程持续天数自西向东递减。从不同时间尺度的干旱影响范围、干旱累计强度和干旱持续天数的空间分布以及指数计算方法角度考虑，MCI指数较为接近实际灾情。

关键词： 东北地区; 干旱判别指数; 干旱过程; 适用性

本文引用格式

冯冬蕾, 程志刚, 赵雷, 吴琼, 郑诗宇, 顾正强 .

4种干旱判别指数在东北地区适用性分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020 , 43(2) : 371 -379 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.02.10

Abstract

Northeast China is not only a significant cultural and economic region but also an important agricultural production area in China.With the continuous climate changes of recent years,the frequency and scope of droughts in northeast China have been increasing.It is important to better monitor and provide warnings of drought development in northeast China and to provide a basis for drought risk assessments in this region.This study used the daily meteorological data from 207 weather stations in northeast China,including data from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia,from 1961 to 2014 for the drought risk assessment.According to the National Classification for meteorological drought standards,the applicability of four drought indices,namely MCI,MI,SPI, and SPIW,in northeast China was evaluated.The results showed that the temporal evolution of the number of drought days and the intensity of drought processes obtained by four meteorological drought indices are generally consistent in northeast China.SPI and SPIW show poor performance for droughtaffected areas for longer drought processes.Compared with those two indices,MCI can reflect the range of drought impacts for various time periods.In their spatial distributions,SPI and SPIW show no clear spatial meridional variations.MCI and MI are spatially consistent in that they show meridional distribution and decline from west to east.From the droughtaffected areas at different time scales,the spatial distribution of the drought intensities,drought duration,and the various index calculation methods,MCI most closely represents the actual drought disasters.

Key words：

northeast China; drought index; drought process; applicability

参考文献

［1］黄会平.1949—2007年我国干旱灾害特征及成因分析［J］.冰川冻土,2010,32（4）:659-665.［HUANG Huiping.Analysis of the characteristics and causes of drought in China from 1949 to 2007［J］.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2010,32（4）:659-665.］ ［2］秦大河,STOCKER T.IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论［J］.气候变化研究进展,2014,10（1）:1-6.［QIN Dahe,STOCKER T.Highlight of the IPCC working group I fifth assessment report［J］.Climate Change Research,2014,10（1）:1-6.］ ［3］孙荣强.干旱定义及指标评述［J］.灾害学,1994,9（1）:17-21.［SUN Rongqiang.Definitions of drought and reviews on its index［J］.Journal of Catastrophology,1994,9（1）:17-21.］ ［4］刘庚山,郭安红,安顺清,等.帕默尔干旱指标及其应用研究进展［J］.自然灾害学报,2004,13（4）:21-27.［LIU Gengshan,GUO Anhong,AN Shunqing,et al.Research progress in Palmer drought severity index and its application［J］.Journal of Natural Disasters,2004,13（4）:21-27.］ ［5］邹旭凯,张强,王有民,等.干旱指标研究进展及中美两国国家级干旱监测［J］.气象,2005,31（7）:6-9.［ZOU Xukai,ZHANG Qiang,WANG Youmin,et al.Drought indices and operation drought monitoring in the U.S.A.and China［J］.Meteorological Monthly,2005,31（7）:6-9.］ ［6］RICHARD R,HEIM Jr.A review of twentiethcentury drought indices used in the United States［J］.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2002,83（8）:1149-1165. ［7］袁文平,周广胜.干旱指标的理论分析与研究展望［J］.地球科学进展,2004,19（6）:982-991.［YUAN Wenping,ZHOU Guangsheng.Theoratical study and research prospect on drought indices［J］.Advances in Earth Science,2004,19（6）:982-991.］ ［8］蒋慧敏,刘春云，贾健，等.乌鲁木齐地区夏季气象干旱的变化特征及成因分析［J］.干旱区地理,2018,41(4):693-700.［JIANG Huimin,LIU Chunyun,JIA Jian,et al.Characteristics and causes of meteorological drought in summer in Urumqi［J］.Arid Land Geography,2018,41（4）:693-700.］ ［9］薛海丽,张钦，唐海萍.近60 a内蒙古不同草原类型区极端气温和干旱事件特征分析［J］.干旱区地理,2018,41(4):701-711.［XUE Haili,ZHANG Qin,TANG Haiping.Extreme temperature and drought events in four different grassland areas of Inner Mongoliain in recent 60 years［J］.Arid Land Geography,2018,41（4）:701-711.］ ［10］高涛涛，殷淑燕，王水霞.基于SPEI指数的秦岭南北地区干旱时空变化特征［J］.干旱区地理,2018,41(4):761-770.［GAO Taotao,YIN Shuyan,WANG Shuixia.Spatial and temporal variations of drought in northern and southern regions of Qinling Mountains based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index［J］.Arid Land Geography,2018,41（4）:761-770.］ ［11］邹旭凯,张强.近半个世纪我国干旱变化的初步研究［J］.应用气象学报,2008,19（6）:679-687.［ZOU Xukai,ZHANG Qiang.Preliminary studies on variations in droughts over China during past 50 years［J］.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2008,19（6）:679-687.］ ［12］杨小利,王丽娜.4种干旱指标在甘肃平凉地区的业务适用性分析［J］.干旱气象,2013,31（2）:419-424.［YANG Xiaoli,WANG Lina.Analysis of operation adaptability of four drought indices in Pingliang of Gansu Province［J］.Journal of Arid Meteorology,2013,31（2）:419-424.］ ［13］王兰芝,王劲松,李耀辉,等.标准化降水指数与广义极值分布干旱指数在西北地区应用的对比分析［J］.高原气象,2013,32（3）:839-847.［WANG Lanzhi,WANG Jinsong,LI Yaohui,et al.Comparison of application between generalized extreme value index and standardized precipitation index in northwest China［J］.Plateau Meteorology,2013,32（3）:839-847.］ ［14］段莹,王文,蔡晓军.PDSI,SPEI及CI指数在2010/2011年冬,春季江淮流域干旱过程的应用分析［J］.高原气象,2013,32（4）:1126-1139.［DUAN Ying,WANG Wen,CAI Xiaojun.Applied analyses on Palmer,SPEI and CI indices of drought process in Yangtze-Huaihe River basins during winter of 2010/spring of 2011［J］.Plateau Meteorology,2013,32（4）:1126-1139.］ ［15］蔡晓军,茅海洋,王文.多尺度干旱指数在江淮流域的适用性研究［J］.冰川冻土,2013,35（4）:978-989.［CAI Xiaojun,MAO Haiyang,WANG Wen.Study of the adaptability of multiscale drought indices in Yangtse-Huaihe River Basins［J］.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35（4）:978-989.］ ［16］杨世刚,杨德保,赵桂香,等.三种干旱指数在山西省干旱分析中的比较［J］.高原气象,2011,30（5）:1406-1414.［YANG Shigang,YANG Debao,ZHAO Guixiang,et al.Analysis of applicability of three drought indices for drought events in southwest China［J］.Plateau Meteorology,2011,30（5）:1406-1414.］ ［17］熊光洁,王式功,李崇银,等.三种干旱指数对西南地区实用性分析［J］.高原气象,2014,33（3）:686-697.［XIONG Guangjie,WANG Shigong,LI Chongyin,et al.Analysis of applicability of three drought indices for drought events in southwest China［J］.Plateau Meteorology,2014,33（3）:686-697.］ ［18］王素萍,王劲松,张强，等.几种干旱指标对西南和华南区域月尺度干旱监测的适用性评价［J］.高原气象,2015,34（6）:1616-1624.［WANG Suping,WANG Jinsong,ZHANG Qiang,et al.Applicability evaluation of drought indices in monthly scale drought monitoring in southwestern and southern China［J］.Plateau Meteorology,2015,34（6）:1616-1624.］ ［19］谢五三,田红.五种干旱指标在安徽省应用研究［J］.气象,2011,37（4）:503-507.［XIE Wusan,TIAN Hong.Study of the application of five drought indexes in Anhui Province［J］.Meteorological Monthly,2011,37（4）:503-507.］ ［20］李明,王文贵,张莲芝.基于SPEI的中国东北地区干旱分区及其气候特征分析［J］.干旱区资源与环境,2016,30（6）:65-70.［LI Ming,WANG Wengui,ZHANG Lianzhi.Drought characteristics analysis and the zoning based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in northeast China［J］.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2016,30（6）:65-70.］ ［21］马建勇,许吟隆,潘婕.基于SPI与相对湿润的指数的1961—2009年东北地区5—9月干旱趋势分析［J］.气象与环境学报,2012,28（3）:90-95.［MA Jianyong,XU Yinlong,PAN Jie.Drought tendency based on standardized precipitation index(SPI) and relative moisture index over northeast China from May to September during 1961-2009［J］.Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2012,28（3）:90-95.］ ［22］吴琼,赵春雨，王大钧，等.1951—2014年辽宁省气象干旱时空特征分析［J］.干旱区资源与环境,2016,30（3）:151-157.［WU Qiong,ZHAO Chunyu,WANG Dajun,et al.Spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological drought in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2014［J］.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2016,30（3）:151-157.］ ［23］沈国强,郑海峰,雷振锋.SPEI指数在中国东北地区干旱研究中的适用性分析［J］.生态学报,2017,37（11）:1-9.［SHEN Guoqiang,ZHENG Haifeng,LEI Zhenfeng.Applicability analysis of SPEI for drought research in northeast China［J］.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37（11）:1-9.］ ［24］孙力,沈柏竹,安刚.中国东北地区地表干湿状况的变化及趋势分析［J］.应用气象学报,2003,14（5）:541-552.［SUN Li,SHEN Baizhu,AN Gang.A study of the variation and tendency of surface dry-and-wet state of northeast area in China［J］.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2003,14（5）:541-552.］ ［25］温克刚,沈建国.中国灾害大典:内蒙古卷［M］.北京:气象出版社,2008:63-89.［WEN Kegang,SHEN Jianguo.China disaster canon:Inner Mongolia volume［M］.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2008:63-89.］ ［26］温克刚,秦元明.中国灾害大典:吉林卷［M］.北京:气象出版社,2008:174-210.［WEN Kegang,QIN Yuanming.China disaster canon:Jilin volume［M］.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2008:174-210.］ ［27］温克刚,丁一汇.中国灾害大典:综合卷［M］.北京:气象出版社,2008:157-229.［ WEN Kegang,DING Yihui.China disaster canon:Comprehensive volume［M］.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2008:157-229.］ ［28］温克刚,沈建国.中国灾害大典:黑龙江卷［M］.北京:气象出版社,2008:1-200.［ WEN Kegang,SHEN Jianguo.China disaster canon:Heilongjiang volume［M］.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2008:1-200.］ ［29］董文杰,张强,郭进修,等.中国气象灾害年鉴（2005）［M］.北京:气象出版社,2006:8-40.［DONG Wenjie,ZHANG Qiang,GUO Jinxiu,et al.The handbook of China meteorological disasters（2005）［M］.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2006:8-40.］ ［30］董文杰,何勇,陈峪,等.中国气象灾害年鉴（2007）［M］.北京:气象出版社,2007:20-21.［DONG Wenjie,HE Yong,CHEN Yu,et al.The handbook of China meteorological disasters（2007）［M］.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:20-21.］ ［31］肖子牛,叶殿秀,王凌,等.中国气象灾害年鉴（2008）［M］.北京:气象出版社,2008:12-15.［XIAO Ziniu,YE Dianxiu,WANG Ling,et al.The handbook of China meteorological disasters（2008）［M］.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2008:12-15.］ ［32］肖子牛,陈峪,高荣,等.中国气象灾害年鉴（2009）［M］.北京:气象出版社,2009:11-16.［ XIAO Ziniu,CHEN Yu,GAO Rong,et al.The handbook of China meteorological disasters（2009）［M］.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2009:11-16.］ ［33］任福民,龚志强,王艳姣,等.中国干旱,强降水,高温和低温区域性极端事件［M］.北京:气象出版社,2015:33-87.［REN Fumin,GONG Zhiqiang,WANG Yanjiao,et al.China[JP8]’[JP]s regional extreme events:Droughts,intense precipitations,heat waves and low temperature［M］.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2015:33-87.］ ［34］张强,邹旭凯,肖风劲,等.气象干旱等级（GB/T20481-2006）［S］.北京:中国标准出版社,2006:12-17.［ZHANG Qiang,ZOU Xukai,XIAO Fengjin,et al.Classification of Meteorological drought（GB/T20481-2006）［S］.Beijing:Standards Press of China,2006:12-17.］ ［35］LU E.Determining the start,duration,and strength of flood and drought with daily precipitation:Rationale［J］.GeophysResLett,2009,36:L12707.
Options
文章导航

/

〈 〉