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2020 , Vol. 43 >Issue 1: 126 - 134

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.01.15

气候与水文

基于模糊综合评价模型的中亚水资源开发潜力评估

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  • 1 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所/荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐830011； 2 中国科学院大学，北京100049
王旋旋（1995-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事中亚水资源开发潜力评估方面的研究. E-mail: wangxuanxuan17@mails.ucas.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2019-03-14

  修回日期: 2019-08-28

  网络出版日期: 2020-01-05

基金资助

中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A类）资助（XDA19030204）

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Assessment of the development potential of water resources in Central Asia based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model

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  • 1 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China; 2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

Received date: 2019-03-14

  Revised date: 2019-08-28

  Online published: 2020-01-05

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摘要

定量评估水资源开发潜力对掌握区域水资源开发现状、提高水资源利用率具有重要意义。通过选取水资源利用率、灌溉率、地表水控制率、人均占有水量、重复利用率、生活用水定额、供水量模数、生态环境用水率等8个重要指标，借助模糊综合评价模型对中亚五国水资源开发潜力进行定量分析。结果表明：中亚地区整体水资源开发利用处于中级阶段，开发潜力综合评分值为0.502 7，表明开发潜力较大。其中，哈萨克斯坦水资源综合评分值最高，为0.712 4，有很大的开发潜力，但要注意摒弃不合理的水资源利用方式；吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦综合评分值分别为0.591 1、0.488 7，有较大的开发潜力，但应注意由广度开发逐渐向深度开发转变。下游国家土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦处于开发利用的高级阶段，综合评分值分别为0.352 6、0.315 0，水资源开发潜力较小。今后应注意发展节水型经济，注重水资源综合管理。

关键词： 水资源开发潜力; 模糊综合评价模型; 中亚五国

本文引用格式

王旋旋, 陈亚宁, 李稚, 方功焕, 王非, 张姣优 . 基于模糊综合评价模型的中亚水资源开发潜力评估[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020 , 43(1) : 126 -134 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.01.15

Abstract

Central Asia is located in the center of Eurasia, with a large number of transboundary rivers, and the conflicts in using water resources are aggravating under the dual influence of climate change and human activities. The problem of water resources and ecological environment in this region has always been a hot topic in the academic research. The quantitative assessment of the development and utilization potential of water resources in the region is of great significance for understanding the current status of water resources and improving the utilization rate of water resources. Based on the statistics of water resources from 1997 to 2014,we selected eight indicators, including utilization rate of water resource, irrigation ratio of arable land, control rate of surface water, per capita water supply, recycling rate of water resource, live use water quota, water supply module, and ecological water use ratio to establish an evaluation index system for the water resources, then quantitatively analyzed the development potential of water resources for five countries in Central Asia by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the development and utilization of water resources in Central Asia is in the intermediate stage, and the evaluated value is comparatively great (0.502 7),which indicates a great exploitation potential of water resources. Among these five countries, Kazakhstan has the highest evaluated value (0.712 4), which indicates the greatest exploitation potential of water resources, but unreasonable use of water should be abandoned. The evaluated values of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are 0.591 1 and 0.488 7 respectively, which indicates a large exploitation potential of water resources, but these two countries should be transformed from breadth development to deep development gradually. The development and utilization of water resources in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are all in the advanced stage, and the evaluated values are 0.352 6 and 0.315 0 respectively, which indicates a least exploitation potential of water resources. In the future, these two countries should develop water-saving economy, and pay attention to the integrated management of water resources. All these conclusions provide scientific basis and decision support for the sustainable utilization of water resources in Central Asia.

Key words： development potential of water resources; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model; the five Central Asian countries

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