气候与水文

西南地区干旱的变化特征及其与大气环流的关系

展开
  • 1 贵州省气象台,贵州贵阳5500022 贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵州贵阳550002
谢清霞,女,工程师,硕士,主要从事中短期天气预报及其数值模拟研究. E-mail:66506485@qq.com

收稿日期: 2019-03-29

  修回日期: 2019-07-05

  网络出版日期: 2020-01-05

基金资助

中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2016-065);贵州省气象局开放基金黔气科合(KF(2016)11)

Characteristics of drought variation and its relationship with general circulation of southwest China

Expand
  • 1 The Meteorological Observatory in Guizhou Province,Guiyang 550002,Guizhou,China; 2 Key Laboratory of Mountain Climate and Resources in Guizhou Province,Guiyang 550002,Guizhou,China

Received date: 2019-03-29

  Revised date: 2019-07-05

  Online published: 2020-01-05

摘要

选用19622017年(10~次年5月)西南地区(四川、贵州、云南和重庆市)90 个地面气象观测台站的逐日降水和日平均气温实测气象要素资料,运用综合气象干旱指数[WTBX](CI)[WTBZ]统计出西南地区累计干旱日数和频次,并分析两者近56 a来的时空变化特征,再挑选其高、低值年进行大气环流形势讨论,最后制作差值图(均为高值年减低值年)与相关场构造的图进行比较。研究结果表明:累计干旱日数和频次均呈逐渐降低的趋势;两者的年代距平在20世纪60年代~80年代同为正,而在20世纪90年代同为负,其后21世纪初两者距平则相反;累计干旱日数具有5 a9 a的年际周期变化,12 a的年代际周期,干旱频次具有8 a左右的年际周期和20 a的年代际周期;两者均在四川西部地区和云南中北部为大值中心,云南西部、重庆和贵州中东部为小值中心;高、中和低层的环流形势也缺少水汽和系统抬升等配置关系。

本文引用格式

谢清霞, 谷晓平, 万雪丽, 李刚, 刘彦华, 张艳梅, 吴磊 . 西南地区干旱的变化特征及其与大气环流的关系[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020 , 43(1) : 79 -86 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.01.10

Abstract

The cumulative dry days and the drought frequency are calculated using the meteorological drought composite index (CI) based on the data about daily precipitation and daily average temperature collected from 90 meteorological stations in Southwest China (Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou Province and Chongqing City) during the time period from 1962 to 2017.Using the wavelet analysis and linear trend, the temporal and spatial variation of cumulative dry days and frequency in the span of 56 years are analyzed in detail. In addition, the atmospheric circulation profiles of the years with lower and higher value are investigated too using correlation and composition analysis. The conclusions are summarized as follows: (1) The overall trend of cumulative dry days and frequency are gradually decreased, the decade anomaly between the two is positive correlated from 1960s to 1980s, negative correlated in 1990s and positive correlated again at the beginning of the 21st century. (2) The duration (the accumulative dry days) has an inter-annual variation period of 5 years and 9 years, and a decade-wise variation period of 12 years. The drought frequency has an inter-annual variation period of 8 years and a decade-wise variation period of 20 years. (3) The duration and frequency have the same center area with higher values including the west Sichuan and the middle and north Yunnan, and the same center area with lower values including the west of Yunnan, the middle and east of Guizhou and Chongqing. (4) The relevant circulation analysis indicated it is to the disadvantage of precipitation in the region if without water vapor and the uplift dynamics in each of the high, middle and low layers atmospheric circulation.

参考文献

[1]马建华.西南地区近年特大干旱灾害的启示与对策[J].人民长江,2010,41(24):7-12.[MA Jianhua.Revelation and countermeasures of catastrophic drought disasters in recent years in southwest China[J].Yangtze River,2010,41(24):7-12.] [2]李永华,徐海明,白莹莹,等.我国西南地区东部夏季降水的时空特征[J].高原气象.2010,29(2):523-530.[LI Yonghua,XU Haiming,BAI Yingying,et al.Spatial-temporal characteristics of summer precipitation in the east of southwest China[J].Plateau Meteor Ology,2010,29(2):523-530.] [3]DAI A G,TRENBERTH K E ,QIAN T T.A global data set of palmer drought severity index for 1870—2002:Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2004,5:1117-1130. [4]KITE G W.Frequency and risk analysis in hydrology[M].Water Golorado:Resources Publication,1977. [5]HAYES M J,SVOBODA M D,WILHITE D A,et al.Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index[J].Bulletin of American Meteorological Society,1999,80: 429-438. [6]卫捷,张庆云,陶诗言.1999年及2000年夏季华北严重干旱的物理成因分析[J].大气科学,2004,28 (1) : 125-137.[WEI Jie,ZHANG Qingyun,TAO Shiyan.Physical causes of the 1999 and 2000 summer severe drought in north China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2004,28(1):125-137.] [7]张婧,梁树柏,许晓光,等.基于[WTBX]CI[WTBZ]指数的河北省近50年干旱时空分布特征[J].资源科学,2017,34(6):1089-1094.[ZHANG Jing,LIANG Shubo,XU Xiaoguang,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of droughts for recent 50 years in Hebei Province based on meteorological drought composite index[J].Resources Science,2017,34(6):1089-1094.] [8]王劲松,郭江勇,倾继祖.一种[WTBX]K[WTBZ]干旱指数在西北地区春旱分析中的应用[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(5):709-717.[WANG Jinsong,GUO Jiangyong,QING Jizu.Application of a kind of [WTBX]K[WTBZ] drought index in the spring drought analysis in northwest China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2007,22(5):709-717.] [9]张存杰,宝灵,刘德祥.西北地区旱涝指标的研究[J].高原气象,1998,17(4):381-389.[ZHANG Cunjie,BAO Ling,LIU Dexiang.Research on drought and flood indices in the northwest China[J].Plateau Meteorology,1998,17(4):381-389.] [10]周连童,黄荣辉.中国西北干旱、半干旱区感热的年代际变化特征及其与中国夏季降水的关系[J].大气科学,2008,32(6):1276-1288.[ZHOU Liantong,HUANG Ronghui.Interdecadal variability of sensible heat in arid and semiarid regions of northwest China and its relation to summer precipitation in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2008,32(6):1276-1288.] [11]朱一中,夏军,谈戈.西北地区水资源载力分析预测与评价[J].资源科学,2003,25(4):43-48.[ZHU Yizhong,XIA Jun,TAN Ge.Measurement and evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of northwest China[J].Resources Science,2003,25(4):43-48.] [12]吴洪宝.我国东南部夏季干早指数研究[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(2):137-141.[WU Hongbao.Study on drought index over the southeastern China in summer[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2000,11(2):137-141.] [13]包云轩,孟翠丽,申双和,等.基于CI指数的江苏省近50年干旱的时空分布规律[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):599-608.[BAO Yunxuan,MENG Cuili,SHEN Shuanghe,et al.Temporal and spatial patterns of droughts for recent 50 years in Jiangsu based on meteorological drought composite index[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(5):599-608.] [14]牛宁,李建平.2004年中国长江以南地区严重秋旱特征及其同期大气环流异常[J].大气科学,2007,31(2):254-264.[NIU Ning,LI Jianping.The features of the heavy drought occurring to the south of the Yangtze River in China as well as the anomalies of atmospheric circulation in autumn 2004[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2007,31(2):254-264.] [15]邹旭恺,任国玉,张强.基于综合气象干旱指数的中国干旱变化趋势研究[J].气候与环境研究,2010,15(4):371-378.[ZOU Xukai,REN Guoyu,ZHANG Qiang.Droughts variations in China based on a compound index of meteorological drought[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2010,15(4):371-878.] [16]陈效孟.四川干旱指数及其预报[J].四川气象,1995,52(2):1-5.[CHEN Xiaomeng.Sichuan drought index and its forecast[J].Journal of Sichuan Meteorology,1995,52(2):1-5.] [17]贺晋云,张明军,王鹏,等.近50年西南地区极端干旱气候变化特征[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1179-1190.[HE Jinyun,ZHANG Mingjun,WANG Peng,et al.Climate characteristics of the extreme drought events in southwest China during recent 50 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(9):1179-1190.] [18]李永华,徐海明,刘德.2006年夏季西南地区东部特大干旱及其大气环流异常[J].气象学报.2009,67(1):1322-1332.[LI Yonghua,XU Haiming,LIU De.Featueres of the extremely severe drought in the east of China and anomalies of atmospheric in summer 2006[J].Acta Meteorologoca Sinica,2009,67(1):1322-1332.] [19]王晓敏.中国干旱化趋势及西南极端干旱成因研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学;2017.[WANG Xiaomin.Drying trend over China and the possible causes of extreme drought in southwest China[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,2017.] [20]ZHANG Q,ZOU X K,XIAO F J,et al.Degree of meteorological drought[J].Beijing: China Meteorological Press,2008:33-54. [21][JP2]YIN Y H,WU S H,ZHENG D,et al.Radiation calibration of FAO56 Penman-Monteith model to estimate reference crop evapotranspiration in China[J].Agri.Water Manage,2008,95:77-84. [22]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2000.[ZHU Qiangeng,LIN Jingrui,SHOU Saowen,et al.Principles and methods of synoptics[M].Beijing:Meteorological Press,2000.]
文章导航

/