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2019 , Vol. 42 >Issue 6: 1239 - 1252

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.06.02

气候与水文

基于K-means聚类分区的西北地区近半个世纪气温变化特征分析

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  • 1 宁夏大学土木与水利工程学院，宁夏 银川 750021；

    2 宁夏节水灌溉与水资源调控工程技术研究中心，宁夏 银川 750021； 3 旱区现代农业水资源高效利用教育部工程研究中心，宁夏 银川 750021

冯克鹏（1979-），男，副教授，博士，主要从事气候变化与水文水资源、水利信息化研究. E-mail：feng_kp@163.com

收稿日期: 2019-04-05

  修回日期: 2019-08-28

  网络出版日期: 2019-11-15

基金资助

宁夏自然科学基金（2019AAC03049）；宁夏高等学校一流学科建设（水利工程学科NXYLXK2017A03）；宁夏高等学校科研项目（NGY2017026）；国家自然科学基金（51469027）

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Temperature variation characteristics of northwest China based on K-means clustering partition in the past half century

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  • 1 School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021,Ningxia,China; 2 Ningxia Research Center of Technology on Water-saving Irrigation and Water Resources Regulation, Yinchuan 750021, Ningxia,China;3 Engineering Research Center for Efficient Utilization of Water Resources in Modern Agriculture in Arid-Regions, Yinchuan 750021,Ningxia,China

Received date: 2019-04-05

  Revised date: 2019-08-28

  Online published: 2019-11-15

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摘要

采用K-means聚类分区，Sen’s斜率估计，Kendall-Tau非参数检验等方法，分析和讨论了近半个世纪（1960—2015年）我国西北地区不同区域的气温变化特征。发现近半个世纪西北地区气温保持了持续的显著上升，年均最低气温上升速率高于年均气温和年均最高气温。从空间的角度来看，新疆北疆地区的东北部，内蒙古北部、西部中东部，甘肃中部、西部，青海北部、中部，宁夏中部、北部地区以及陕西北部是升温最快的区域。虽然西北地区气温总体是上升趋势，但在时间上并不均匀一致。从1998年开始，西北地区气温升温减缓，部分地区出现了下降趋势。近半个世纪西北地区季节气温与年际气温变化趋势并不一致，变暖减缓在该地区不同季节的响应不同。1998—2015年，冬季是增温幅度最小的季节，多数子区冬季存在升温趋势减缓，甚至转为下降趋势。

关键词： ; font-size:10.5pt; ">聚类分析；; font-size:10.5pt; "> ; font-size:10.5pt; ">轮廓系数；; font-size:10.5pt; "> ; font-size:10.5pt; ">变暖减缓；; font-size:10.5pt; "> ; font-size:10.5pt; ">西北地区

本文引用格式

冯克鹏, 田军仓, 沈晖 . 基于K-means聚类分区的西北地区近半个世纪气温变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2019 , 42(6) : 1239 -1252 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.06.02

Abstract

The northwest region in China is vast, with administrative divisions including parts of Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia. Arid, semi-arid and semi-humid climates coexist in the region. Mountain, Gobi, oasis, desert and other topographical features are intertwined. The northwest region in China is ecologically fragile and sensitive to climate change. It is well known that climate warming and rising temperatures accelerate the water cycle and add up the intensity and frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events such as high temperature and drought and heavy rains. At the same time, it also leads to the uneven distribution of water resources in time and space, and the complexity and difficulty of dealing with floods and droughts. On the contrary, after the temperature stops rising, the water circulation process will slow down; the water cycle elements such as precipitation, evaporation and runoff in the region will inevitably change, which will affect the industrial and agricultural production and the people’ s life in the region. In the new context of climate warming mitigation, this paper analyzes and discusses how the temperature in Northwest China has changed. Is there a warming slowdown? How does temperature respond in different seasons? In this study based on the observations of temperature by 184 meteorological stations in the northwestern region, by using K-means clustering partition, Sen’ s slope estimation and Kendall-Tau nonparametric test methods, the temperature variation characteristics of Northwest China in the past half century (1960—2015) were analyzed. The results show that the temperature in the northwestern region has been increased significantly in the past half century, and the rise rate of annual average minimum temperature is higher than those of the average annual temperature and the highest annual average temperature. From a spatial point of view, the northeastern part of the northern Xinjiang, the northern, western, central and eastern parts of Inner Mongolia, the central and western parts of Gansu Province, the northern and central parts of Qinghai Province, the central and northern parts of Ningxia Province, and the northwestern part of Shaanxi Province are the fastest warming areas. Although the temperature in the northwestern region is generally on the rise, there is a difference in specific areas. Since 1998, the temperature in the northwest region has been slowed down, and some regions have experienced a downward trend. In the past half century, the seasonal temperature and the interannual temperature in the northwestern region are not consistent, and the warming slows down in different seasons in the region. During the period from 1998 to 2015, winter is the season with the smallest increase in temperature. In most sub-regions, the warming trend in winter has been slowed down and even turned into a downward trend. This paper analyzes the trend of temperature change in the northwestern region in the past half century from different spaces and observes the phenomenon of warming mitigation in the northwest region, and this trend is inconsistent in different sub-regions and different seasons. According to the comparison with related researches, the years of warming stagnation found in this paper are consistent with the relevant research conclusions. At the same time, the conclusions of this paper could enrich the understanding of climate temporal and spatial changes in the region and provide assistance for further understanding the temperature variation law in this region.

Key words： cluster analysis; silhouette coefficient; warming mitigation; northwest China

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