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2019 , Vol. 42 >Issue 3: 615 - 624

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.03.18

生态与环境

作物生产潜力变化的区域差异——以陕西省为例

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  • （1 西北大学城市与环境学院，陕西西安 710127； 2 陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室，陕西西安 71012； 3 国家测绘地理信息局第二地形测量队，陕西西安 710054）

王莺莺（1981-），女，博士研究生，助理研究员，研究方向为社会地理与乡村发展. E-mail：wangyy@nwu.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2018-11-14

  修回日期: 2019-03-02

  网络出版日期: 2019-05-21

基金资助

陕西省自然科学基础研究计划（2018JQ4024）；国家自然科学基金（41701094）

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Regional difference in crop production potential change:A case study of Shaanxi Province

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  • (1 College of Urban and Environmental Science,Northwest University,Xi’an 710127,Shaanxi,China;2 Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity,Xi’an 710127,Shaanxi,China3 The Second Topographic Surveying Brigade of the Ministry of Natural Resources,Xi’an 710054,Shaanxi,China)

Received date: 2018-11-14

  Revised date: 2019-03-02

  Online published: 2019-05-21

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摘要

作物生产潜力变化具有明显的区域差异性，亟需针对不同地理单元实施有效应对措施和调控策略。选择陕西省三大地理单元（陕北高原、关中盆地和秦巴山区）为研究对象，运用全球生态区模型（GAEZ）分析了陕西省不同地理单元作物生产潜力变化趋势，探讨了不同作物生产潜力变化的区域差异，辨识出影响不同作物生产潜力变化的主要因素，结果显示：（1） 1980—2015年间，陕西省玉米生产潜力总量增加了150.55×104 t，小麦生产潜力总量则下降了402.69×104 t。（2） 关中盆地的玉米和小麦生产潜力皆最大，陕北高原次之，秦巴山区的玉米和小麦生产潜力皆最小；陕北高原和秦巴山区的玉米生产潜力皆表现出先增加后减小再增加的变化趋势，关中盆地的玉米生产潜力则先减小后增加再减小；关中盆地和秦巴山区的小麦生产潜力都呈下降趋势，陕北高原的小麦生产潜力则有所提高。（3） 土地利用变化呈现减产效应，这一效应在关中盆地尤为显著，其次为陕北高原；气候变化导致玉米生产潜力增加，使小麦生产潜力下降；气候变化对不同地理单元的影响也不相同，在陕北高原表现为增产效应，在关中盆地和秦巴山区则为减产效应。（4） 在陕北高原，气候变化的增产效应是玉米和小麦生产潜力提高的主要原因，气候变化对玉米生产潜力的影响大于对小麦的影响，耕地向草地、林地和建设用地的转化是降低作物生产潜力最主要的土地利用变化因素；在关中盆地，作物生产潜力的变化主要是受气候变化的影响，小麦受气候变化的影响较玉米为大，以建设用地占用耕地为特征的土地利用变化对玉米生产潜力的影响大于对小麦的影响；在秦巴山区，土地利用变化是玉米生产潜力变化的主要原因，而小麦生产潜力的变化主要受气候变化影响。

关键词： 生产潜力; 气候变化; 土地利用变化; 陕北高原; 关中盆地; 秦巴山区

本文引用格式

王莺莺, 张依婧, 李 飞, 吕 妍 . 作物生产潜力变化的区域差异——以陕西省为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2019 , 42(3) : 615 -624 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.03.18

Abstract

There were obvious regional differences in crop production potential change caused by the changes in climate and land use.Therefore,it was in urgent need to implement effective solutions and control strategies for different agricultural districts and agricultural production modes.Shaanxi Province,China which was divided into three geographical units was chosen as the research object to explore the trends and influence factors of crop production potential change among different geographical units by using GAEZ.The data required for the GAEZ model mainly included climate,land use,soil,topography and statistics data.The food crops planted in Shaanxi Province were mainly maize and wheat.Through spatial analysis and statistics,the production potential changes of the two crops in different geographical units were calculated.The results showed that the total maize production potential in Shaanxi Province was increased by 150.55×104 t,while the total wheat production potential was decreased by 402.69×104 t between 1980 and 2015.The maize and wheat production potential in Guanzhong Basin were the greatest,followed by Shaanbei Plateau.The maize production potential in Shaanbei Plateau and QinglingDaba Mountains showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing and then increasing again; however,it was decreased first and then increased and then decreased again in Guanzhong Basin.The wheat production potentials in Guanzhong Basin and QinlingDaba Mountains were both decreased,while it was increased by 141.58 kg·hm-2 in Shaanbei Plateau.The land use change had a subtractive effect on crop production potential,which was particularly significant in Guanzhong Basin.Climate change led to an increase in maize production potential and a decrease in wheat production potential.The impact of climate change on crop production potential presented a yieldincreasing effect in Shaanbei Plateau and a yielddecreasing effect in Guanzhong Basin and QinlingDaba Mountains.In Shaanbei Plateau,the yieldincreasing effect of climate change was the main reason for the improvement of maize and wheat production potential; the impact of climate change on maize production potential was greater than that of wheat; the transformation of farmland to grassland,woodland and construction land was the most important land use change reason for decreasing crop production potential.In Guanzhong Basin,the change of crop production potential was mainly affected by climate change; the effect of climate change on wheat production potential was greater than that of maize; however,the effect of land use change characterized by construction land occupying farmland on maize production potential was greater than that on wheat.In QinlingDaba Mountains,land use change was the main reason for the change of maize production potential; the change of wheat production potential was mainly affected by climate change.It can be concluded that the production potential of maize and wheat in Shaanbei Plateau were both increased,while the crop production capacity was generally declined in other geographical units in Shaanxi Province.Moreover,the increase in crop production potential in the Shaanbei Plateau was mainly caused by climate change.The decline in the production potential of crops in other geographical units was affected by both climate change and land use change.By analyzing the impact of different factors on crop production potential in different geographical units,the main factors limiting the change of crop production potential in different geographical units can be identified.This had important theoretical and practical significance for the rational use of climate resources and giving full play to the potential of crop production in order to increase food production capacity.

Key words： production potential; climate change; land use change; Shaanbei Plateau; Guanzhong Basin; QinlingDaba Mountains

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